Jan 18 2010
Rothenberg Calls MA Special “Takeover”
In what has to be the equivalent of calling the MA Special Election for Brown, Stuart Rothenberg has move the race from ‘toss up’ to ‘takeover’. Rothenberg has nothing to gain by jumping the gun like this and a lot of credibility to lose if he is wrong. The only thing I can think of to push this kind of action are the internal polls are so bad and the margin so large there is not risk in coming out now.
UPDATE: WH is admitting a lot today:
He adds that “they are saying their numbers have them up — but that is W. modeling that does not reflect this election and they know it. They are afraid a big loss would produce a diaspora in Congress. That’s why president had no choice but to go.â€
As I said, it is so bad Obama has no choice but to throw everything at this race, since he is going to be the lamest of lame ducks come Wednesday. BTW, word on the ground is a Brown wipe out with Independents.
This is wonderful art to my eyes:
While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race to fill the remainder of the late-Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat.
Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win. Move from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover.
The interesting thing is Brown will be on the 2012 reelection cycle with Obama at the top of the ticket, assuming Brown wins.
Obama is going to be positively poisonous for all Democrats that election cycle, given the economic policies the Democrats have in place.
The Bush tax rate cuts end 01 Jan 2011 and that is just long enough to really screw up the economy for the Nov. 2012 election.
We may even see a Republican controlled Congresses attempt to forestall that tax rate increase vetoed by Obama as a political tac-nuke cherry on top for down ballot Democrats.
A “diaspora in Congress”, sort of like scattering the bunch of pigeons clucking around Obama’s statue in the park. I like that image.
AJ,
MSNBC commentator Chris Mathews just said Brown would win based on a discussion with Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos.
The pollster told him that the GOP’s Scott Brown is leading Martha Coakley by “double-digits” in all three “Bellweather areas” of Massachusetts.
Matthews said “it looks like Brown.” He went on to say “if the Bellweather areas are double-digits for Brown, it’s over.”
See:
http://www.freedomslighthouse.com/2010/01/gasps-at-msnbc-as-christ-matthews.html
FYI… this could also be a desperate attempt to suppress the votes.
Convince people that its a done deal, and they wont go in as large a number. Its already hard enough to get people to vote in special elections, add the predicted bad weather, and some voter suppression and you just might give the dem a chance.
han,
It is more likely to depress and suppress dems
Just listening to Rush, while at the same time reading this post, and whatdayaknow…Rush sends a call out to your blog (which he must be following) talking about this post and the latest polling for Brown! Way to go A.J.!
Running Roach,
Thanks! That is the 2nd time we have had a Rush call out! Hopefully the site will stay afloat with the coming traffic.
WH and senior Democrats are considering the ping pong approach with the Health Care bill.
A Scott Brown win forces the WH and the Dems to consider those options that will cause a far bigger backlash with the American public…except one.
The only options for them are:
1. Give up on the bill.
2. Go back and rework the bill but involve the Republicans’ ideas and proposals as free market concepts.
Surely we know that they won’t use any ideas and proposals from the Republicans.
[…] Mr. “Tingly Leg” Mathews threw in the towel this morning on Morning Joe. No wonder Stu Rothenburg basically called this for Brown. No wonder Obama was desperate to try and stem the damage in […]