Jan 18 2010

MA Bellweathers: Brown 55% – Coakley 40%

Published by at 1:36 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

If the MA bell weather cities are any indication then Brown will win in a landslide (as I predicted):

The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:

• Brown (55 percent) leads Coakley (40 percent) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2 percent, while 3 percent are undecided.
• In Fitchburg, Brown (55 percent) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41 percent), with 2 percent for Kennedy and 2 percent undecided.
• Peabody voters give Brown (57 percent), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40 percent), with Kennedy polling 1 percent and 3 percent undecided.

Just eyeballing the averages here it looks like 55-40 Brown – a wipe out. No wonder Mr. “Tingly Leg” Mathews threw in the towel this morning on Morning Joe. No wonder Stu Rothenburg basically called this for Brown. No wonder Obama was desperate to try and stem the damage in MA.

This kind of blow out will cement the reality that the liberal democrat moves in DC are creating a public backlash of epic proportions. NJ, VA and MA are not isolated incidents.

Update: Here is what makes these cities so indicative of MA elections:

Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody all show solid margins for Brown, the state senator running against Coakley. The cities were identified as bellwether communities because in the most recent “like election” – the November 2006 Senate race between the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Republican challenger Kenneth Chase – the results in all three communities were within 1 percentage point of the actual statewide results for each candidate. Additionally, party registration in those cities is similar to the statewide voter makeup.

True bell weathers.

10 responses so far

10 Responses to “MA Bellweathers: Brown 55% – Coakley 40%”

  1. [...] you average it the bellweather counties, Brown leads by 15!!!!!  No wonder Matthews and Rothenberg threw in the towel. Sphere: Related Content Share on: [...]

  2. Ashen says:

    God, let it be true. Go Mr. Brown. BTW, I live in AZ and just heard the news mention the race. P.S. Is anyone hiring? I need a job.

  3. AJStrata says:

    Ashen,,

    What’s your profession?

  4. AJ,

    The Democratic Left win forever if we get socialized medicine.

    So they will go all the way with this, even if Brown wins.

    If they cannot get 60 before Brown gets in, they will go for reconciliation.

    If they can’t get reconciliation, they will try and pick off a Republican in the Senate.

    All they need is legislation that will crash the current system, and the end result will be single-payer.

    Losing for a decade or more to get that means we get a European style central government and that means they win.

    The story between now and 2010 is how many non-leftists in the Democratic Party are willing to drink that kool-aide.

  5. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Suhr Mesa and Nancy Gatchel, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: new: MA Bellweathers: Brown 55% – Coakley 40% http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/12410 [...]

  6. [...] Read the rest here with links to the sources. [...]

  7. Ashen says:

    I am a LPN but am transitioning out of nursing into refrigeration/heating. Currently enrolled at refrigeration school here in AZ.

  8. Ashen says:

    An aside, The Corner posted a bit stating that Mr. Brown says he’ll be in D.C., should he win, to take his seat. Are there any folks willing to go up there and support him? I know he has a legal team to help him but I’m sure the dems will try and block him if he wins. It would be good to have some muscle up there in case it gets hairy.

    Getting Ready for Wednesday   [Daniel Foster]
    Scott Brown says that if he wins, he’ll be in D.C. by Friday, looking for a place to sit.

    But as we’ve noted, Harry Reid’s Senate majority intends to hold out on seating the winner of tomorrow’s election until reciept of certification from the state of Massachusetts. And in the event of a Brown win, Massachusett’s Democratic executive intends to delay that certification process as long as is possible — ten days or more — leaving interim Senator Paul Kirk in place to vote on an express-lane health-care compromise.

    GOP lawyers are ready to have that fight. Under the law hastily passed after Sen. Ted Kenendy’s death to accomodate Kirk’s appointment, interim senatorial terms last only “until election and qualification of the person duly elected to fill the vacancy.” Qualification, the GOP will argue, is not certification. The former refers only to Constitutional prerequisites. The Republicans have some precedent on their side: a number of victors of special Senate races saw their Congressional salaries begin immediately after election, not certification.

    In any event, let us hope it doesn’t come to lawyering. But if the Democrats do try any funny business, RNC Committeeman and Brown booster Ron Kaufman says keep an eye on Lexington, Concord, and Bunker Hill:

    “I’d love for the Democrats to try to not seat him, and I’d like to see them rush through health care,” Kaufman told [ABC News] from Boston, where he’s helping Brown’s campaign in its final stages. “If either of those things happens, we’ll have a revolution in the streets — not just here but in Washington. I think they’re smarter than that.”

    01/18 03:46 PMShare

  9. Terrye says:

    Man, this is so hard to believe. I think it would be a good thing if Brown won, but I will have to see it to believe it.

  10. [...] T+40 min: Fitchburg was a bell weather location which was +15% before the election. with 17% reporting it is tracking exactly the same with Brown [...]