A few outlier polls and everyone thinks the dynamic sent in motion over the past two years of arrogant DC liberals running amok has just disappeared in one week. Very fanciful, if not fictional. Data is meant to be integrated and balanced, not over reacted to at each data point. This is how we get such inane conclusions as human driven climate warming – by way of wild extrapolations.

There is lots of data and indicators out there. Very few are showing hope for the Dems. Those that do are internally incoherent, like when you see a poll were Independents and the GOP have huge support for the GOP, but the smaller sample of Democrats add up to a Dem lead. Fails elementary addition.

Here is one great synopsis of why the Dems will not be celebrating come November 3rd. It focuses on swing districts, but remember most state-wide races resemble swing districts more than any other kind of district, because no one party has a lock and the middle decides which party will win – not the partisans. Some juicy tidbits:

The President’s overall approval rating in toss-up Congressional districts is toxic. Quite simply, he is killing Democrats in these districts. A bi-partisan NPR poll released this week has the President’s approval rating in “toss-up” Congressional districts at 41%. His disapproval was a stunningly high 55%.

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Voter perception of Obama’s handling of key issues is abysmal. A recent Newsweek poll showed that 56% disapprove of the President’s handling of the economy and 58% disapprove of his handling of the federal budget deficit.

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Private campaign polls that we have seen in four key swing states show opposition to the health care reform law among likely voters at 57%-65%. In these states the new health care law is nuclear material.

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One measure of this that hasn’t gotten a lot of media attention is the raw numbers of primary voters. According to an analysis by American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate, Republican turnout in primaries through August has exceeded Democratic turnout by four million voters (17,182,893 to 12,963,925).

This HuffPo piece is a rare breath of cold reality in this morass of hyperventilating. The 2nd indicator is some data from those polls by The Hill, showing why the Democrats are not surging:

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found that 61 percent of likely independent voters in 10 battleground House districts — a critical swing demographic — think the leadership under House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is more liberal than they are.

And these voters know what it means to let Reid and Pelosi survive November and team up with Obama to further damage their nation. The combination of GOP and Independent voters is too much for the Dems to hold back. Then there is this from The Hill polls:

In 10 competitive House districts, 41 percent of likely voters say Obama has brought change for the worse, and 30 percent say he has made no difference.

71% think Obama’s change was either bad or impotent. Think these people are ready to let the Dems keep blowing $1.5 trillion dollars a year on risky, failed schemes?

How about the current list of House seats in play – anyone think the fact that 91 of the 99 seats in trouble in the House are Democrat is a sign of good things to come for the Dems? Think you can lose half your house seats in a state and still win the state wide races?

The only answer from the dems is arrogantly belittling the voters. These knuckleheads plan a high profile ‘make fun of the rubes’ rally on the Washington Mall this weekend. This is sure to ratchet up the anger from those same dumb voters ready to throw the losers out.

Comedy Central’s Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart have tapped into the Democratic Party’s ironic, scornful mood.

In doing so, they’ve also brought to light some of the party’s most self-destructive tendencies, the elitism and condescension that Bill Clinton sought to purge in the 1990s, when he matched a progressive agenda with the persona of a likeable “Bubba” to win two terms.

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And President Obama himself has given his blessing to the election-eve irony-fest on the Mall, planning to appear on Stewart’s show in advance of the rally and plugging it in a recent appearance in Ohio, suggesting that Stewart’s point was to rally a silent, “sane” majority.

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Waging battle over the Politics of Dumbness may not be smart for Democrats.

“The Washington elite isn’t just blind to the wave, it is fueling the wave of anti-elite resentment,” said the Republican consultant Alex Castellanos. “Laughing at the tea party proves their point — Washington doesn’t listen to people outside the Beltway.”

What better reason to get out and vote than to show those DC elites they are nowhere near as smart as they wish they were. Let me see, how smart is it to blow $3 trillion dollars, not fix the economy and get a major party wiped out in the process. Pure genius! Wiley E Coyote genius.