Sep 18 2008
Where Did All The Global Warming Go?
It seems if one looks at recent satellite data on the global atmospheric temperature something very interesting has occurred – the Global Warming of the last 15+ years has DISAPPEARED!
H/T Icecap (full image here). It’s all gone, simply gone. CO2 emissions have been increasing the entire time. Humankind has not done anything of any significance about our activities. Yet some force has wiped out all the Global Warming the Chicken Littles over at the Church of Al Gore/IPCC were clucking about being the end of the world and civilization.
It seems that most of the Global Warming IS NOT driven by man, as one real NASA Scientist noted to Congress this year. The very important discovery that 70% of the Global Warming was due to natural forces should have been headline news, and those who cried we were all doomed should have been laughed out of the square of public debate. But now we have clear evidence the driver is nature. In 3 short years all the Global Temperature increases we were wringing our hands over are now gone.
Don’t expect this to hit the news, though. Too many people believe the liberal media fantasy, and it would be a blow to their self confidence to face some scientific data head on. For those who do want to know what is going on, based on the current scientific data, then this is the place you want to be getting your information:
A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.
As in most organizations there are clowns and leaders. I’ll let you decide which NASA scientists fit in which category.
Recent lack of sunspot activity may also be a mover.
It will be interesting to see if conditions on Mars mirror Earth issues tracking solar activity.
Hansen was recently seen in an English courtroom testifying that it was OK to break the law and commit vandalism in the cause of global warming. What a wonderful NASA spokesman he is.
It’s going to be a cold winter, folks. Better stock up on sweaters.
“Recent lack of sunspot activity may also be a mover.”
Possibly, but it is going to take a while to have an impact. Remember we are at solar minimum so activity is normally low anyway. We have been low longer than the last solar minimum but not at unprecedented levels. It would take years for that change in solar output by itself to change the amount of heat in the oceans which is what ultimately drives climate.
But we are facing a triple whammy. PDO in cold phase, NAO in cold phase AND a reduction in solar output. It is going to be interesting. There are also some things to keep in mind. The overall solar radiation increases as the sun ages but over timescales of millions of years. Over the last couple of million years we have been in a period of 100K years of glaciation followed by 10K years of warmth and then another 100K years of glaciation. Ice ages last 10x longer than the warm periods. We are getting close to the end of the average duration of warm periods with this one and are due to slip into another glaciation period.
Also, the warm period before the last ice age was warmer than this one has been. It was warmer and shorter. This one is longer but cooler. Ultimately the greatest national security threat to Canada and Russia is ice.
There has been some interesting work, which I know you’re aware of, suggesting shorter term cycles that caused the Dalton and Maunder minima. Since these aren’t well understood, one can only speculate as to whether or not a repetition is possible. Archibald’s paper is quite compelling, however.
The anecdotal evidence over the last year (which I know is not rigourous) suggests an unusually cold winter ahead. First snow in 100 years in Baghdad, unusually harsh winter in Australia, early end to summer in Canada and Alaska. Not to mention that we’re having late October temperatures in the middle of September. (at least where I live) By unusually cold, I mean something like the winter of 83/84 deep freeze, which is the coldest I remember. For my parents generation, it would be the winter of ’47. Winters just before and during WW1 were also unusally harsh, which suggests this is the kind of thing that comes around every 30 or 40 years.
AJ,
Check out instapundit about the 23 Sept NASA conference on “historic low” solar wind found by the Ulysses mission:
HMM: Sounds like the opening of a science-fiction thriller:
“NASA will hold a media teleconference Tuesday, Sept. 23, at 12:30 p.m. EDT, to discuss data from the joint NASA and European Space Agency Ulysses mission that reveals the sun’s solar wind is at a 50-year low.
The sun’s current state could result in changing conditions in the solar system.” (Via Watts Up With That).
Trent – this NASA conference is huge. Up until now, NASA has been issuing and resissuing statements that added up to “move along, nothing to see her, nothing out of the ordinary, move along, move along.” Even though every prediction about the start of Solar Cycle 24 has been blown out of the water.
This conference implies that this approach is being abandoned, and NASA itself is going to admit that something very, very out of the ordinary has been going on with the sun. What is it? Simply put, the suns magnetic field seems to be going into hibernation. Why this is happening and how long it will last no one can say. Another Maunder minimum is a possibility.
[…] Anybody can see CO2 is climbing and the global temperature is flat (or dropping). In fact, this year marks an interesting year for the Church of Al Gore/IPCC – it is the year all their models are declared complete garbage, because 20 years after the IPCC declared a pending environmental disaster due to a warming globe, all the warming has suddenly disappeared: […]