Nov 03 2009
2009 Elections Spell Disaster For Dems In 2010
I have been holding off posting on the election results to see how bad it was going to be in VA – and it is a historic disaster for Democrats. Not only did the Dems lose all three state wide races, they lost them by astounding margins. Â With 70% of the vote in all three GOP WINNERS are ahead by 20% on average. McDonnell is sitting on a 22% win margin. Independents went to the GOP by 60-40. It is a crush.
This is not a local phenomenon. I suspect (and will post later) that Christie wins and Hoffman wins big. I will also now watch CA-10 closely to see how broad this voter backlash tsunami is. But in VA two things are clear: the GOP wave has massive amounts of energy (where McDonnell won he won huge in districts with large votes) and the Dems are out of gas (where Deeds one the voter numbers were pathetic).
A message is being sent to DC tonight. The Tea Partiers are out in mass.
Update: As I predicted Christie blows out Corzine as Dagget voters decide to not waste their vote.
But the big news may be in NY-23, where the Beck-Hannity candidate is about to be handed his head. I also predicted Owens would win if the far right went too far – and it looks like that also happened.
This country is fed up with the fringes. Conservatives running as moderates/centrists win, and the lone far right candidate flames out. I rest my case. Hannity – enjoy your crow my friend.
Update: It’s all about the center and independents:
Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) is walloping New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) among independents with a 58 percent to 31 percent margin, according to exit polling in the contest.
…
In Virginia, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell’s (R) victory was driven by his wide 65 percent to 34 percent margin among independents. Compare that to the 48 percent Obama won among independents in Virginia in 2008 and you begin to see the depths of the rout currently underway in the Commonwealth.
The center has spoken – listen up DC. Listen up GOP. Listen up Democrats.
Update: RCP blog notes Hoffman is toast. “True Conservatives” still in exile.
Update: VA sees down ticket move to GOP as many state delegate races go or lean to GOP. Yeah, this is a democrat nightmare, if you represent a normally GOP district.
Hell YEAH!!!!! Go BOB!!!
The blue dogs are shaking in their boots. There will be no health care or cap and trade.
Huge news from Texas.
Scores of Democrat officials switching to the Republicans.
FWIW, Christie won NJ. As of 2240 EST, no word on NY-23.
There is hanky panky in New York, no? Weren’t ballots seized there this evening?
Va. check
NJ. check
From Larry Sabato: ’93 and ’05 were the only years when both of the above were won by the same party and we all know what happened the next year. WooHoo!!! Take back America is on the way!
Things aren’t looking good for Hoffman but he can try next year as endorsed by the Republican Party this time. He should do better.
If there is chaos in the republican party, then why wasn’t there interference by conservatives in the Virginia race, New Jersey race and Bloomberg races?? This “interference” argument is not holding water.
AJ, did you hear Brit Hume just now? He said it was a miracle that Hoffman did as well as he did. Now you know that is true. He came in late and did the best he could after a liberal candidate was “decided on” in a pizza parlor…NO primary. And I’m sorry, but dede took 5% of the vote which could have gone to Hoffman if some of those were absentee ballots or those who were not informed of her resignation…
Personally, I am proud of the effect that was made on this race. Having someone who was handpicked, who tossed her votes to a democrat, who was for card check, the stimulus, etc… represent republicans is just not acceptable. And dede would not represent you, either, AJ. With all due respect, I think you should be thanking those who stood up, sent their money to send a message against what dede stood for. Just my opinion.
It is amazing to win 9 out of 11 congressional districts in VA. Way to go Bob!! Thats impressive!!
Hoffman is behind by 2500 (dede has 6,900 votes!) and machines in “St. Lawrence County are having mechanical problems and total results for the county won’t be available tonight.”
Absentees have not been counted, either.
Something I noted in the comments of a different blog:
I am from a rural area originally. If a bunch of outsiders came to town telling us who our candidate “should” be and who we should vote for, the people there would probably do just the opposite for no better reason than to simply spite the outsiders … even if we agreed with them. Rural folks generally don’t like to be told what to do by people who aren’t from there. It feels condescending.
This is only a one year seat and it gets elected all over again in a year from now.
I just can’t decide how “true conservative” pundits will spin Hoffman’s loss. They can’t say that “he wasn’t conservative enough”… he is their product.
Pretty good night. VA and NJ go red, and the blue dogs will be nervous about voting for socialized medicine. The only loss is in NY. Thanks to the far right, Obama has one more congressional seat.
Cross patch I agree with you and I say that as a conservative. I noted on my blog
“The number of votes the DEM got would appear to be shocking. Please go to the bottom of this page to see how GOP this district is by looking at past races. Please note HOW GOP it was in the 2006 and 2008 cycles that was a very anti Republican year.
So is this GOP district bucking what appears to be a huge GOP trend tonight because it likes the Democrats and Obama.
There is a lesson here and I don’t think many conservatives want to hear it. That is to remember the Psychology of the voter. That has little to do with if the voter is liberal or Conservative or moderate. I understand the need for slash and burn politics but I think in this case it was handled badly.
Watching these results reminds me of the year I cut my political teeth as it were. It was the horrible election cycle where David Duke was running against Johnson for the Louisiana U.S. Senate race. It colored all the races and was the horrible elephant in the room. I was campaigning for a Judicial candidate and a three Parish race and I had to be wary of it.
A nice percentage of Duke’s vote was what I call the “what the hell vote”. They were tired of outsiders telling them what to do, they got tired of the attention, they got tired of it period. Yes it would go against their interest to vote for DUKE and make the State look like idiots but in the privacy of the voting booth they said basically “well I will show you”.
I really wonder if the fact that so many for these GOP leaning voters went to the Democrat is because they resented Conservative groups making them ground zero in some war. The resentment of some GOP figures up there I suspect was intense. I suspect many people thought they were being used. Lets face it the conservative candidate up there was not too up on local issues as he admitted. Again the danger of trying to nationalize a race from afar.
In my viewpoint it would have been better to hold conservative fire and then get the liberal Republican out in a real primary that had real voters.
Now we need to take that district back”
“In my viewpoint it would have been better to hold conservative fire and then get the liberal Republican out in a real primary that had real voters.”
Generally, I agree with that. But going forward, lets hope that if Hoffman runs again next year (this is only a one-year seat this time around) he is more up on the local issues, has name recognition this time, and can run a start to finish campaign rather of coming out of the woodwork at the last minute with people going, “Who?”.
My best hope would be a more established Republican with better political savvy with a finger on the pulse of local issues would run next year and knock Owens out.
And one has to wonder where those polling numbers for Hoffman were coming from. They certainly didn’t bear out at the poll.
Actually, it was the “democrat supporting liberal Republican” who was the spoiler in the NY-23 race. But, it was a freaky situation. It can be fixed next year.
Congrats to VA and NJ! Please govern well!
The Conservative Victory in New York
The biggest defeat for RINOs in New York wasn’t the pre-election collapse of Dede Scozzafava in the 23rd CD. It was tonight’s stunning victory by conservative Republican Rob Astorino in the race for County Executive of Westchester County—the affluent and heavily taxed suburb just north of NYC, which has been solidly Democratic for more than a decade. Astorino’s victory is a stinging rebuke to the brand of New York Republicanism personified by Assemblywoman Scozzafava, former Gov. (and Westchester native son) George Pataki, and Westchester’s famously liberal former state Sen. Nicky Spano of Yonkers…….
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWFlYjk4ZDdlZmQxNjQ4NTAzNTY2YThjZDU3Y2E4NGQ=
Another conservative victory???
Maine voters repeal gay-marriage law
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iGQ6LMSOvL9rjDHrAmyO9mHoVieAD9BOHJ8O0
Catching the wave–
Texas Democrats Set to Switch to Republican All Over the State
http://www.texasgop.org/news.asp?artid=85
All politics are local. In VA, Bob was a solid conservative who ran a great campaign and never sounded nutty or from the fringe. A good combination in VA.
In NJ, Chris was a center-right moderate who ran to the right as the campaign moved to taxes and the economy. But he never lost his moderate voice.
Hoffman was hurt by being a newby and a johnny come lately. also it would seem that the outside influence hurt him as well as his lack of local issues. Next year with the (r) behind his name and a little local base building, he can run with a little more knowledge of local issues. He can build a more moderate persona and voice to take the 2010 rematch.
In ca-10 it looks like the Dem % is way down from last year.
And Hoffman only lost by 4% or less since the remaining 7% of the vote is from his areas. Owens did not make 50% so he must be considered a vulnerable incumbent.
frogg1: Look for more switches to republicans from democrats. The south (Texas) will see the conservative wave first and the east and west coasts will see it last. I would not be surprised if a southern democrat in a conservative district switched parties next year to save their career.