Nov 03 2009
2009 Elections Spell Disaster For Dems In 2010
I have been holding off posting on the election results to see how bad it was going to be in VA – and it is a historic disaster for Democrats. Not only did the Dems lose all three state wide races, they lost them by astounding margins. Â With 70% of the vote in all three GOP WINNERS are ahead by 20% on average. McDonnell is sitting on a 22% win margin. Independents went to the GOP by 60-40. It is a crush.
This is not a local phenomenon. I suspect (and will post later) that Christie wins and Hoffman wins big. I will also now watch CA-10 closely to see how broad this voter backlash tsunami is. But in VA two things are clear: the GOP wave has massive amounts of energy (where McDonnell won he won huge in districts with large votes) and the Dems are out of gas (where Deeds one the voter numbers were pathetic).
A message is being sent to DC tonight. The Tea Partiers are out in mass.
Update: As I predicted Christie blows out Corzine as Dagget voters decide to not waste their vote.
But the big news may be in NY-23, where the Beck-Hannity candidate is about to be handed his head. I also predicted Owens would win if the far right went too far – and it looks like that also happened.
This country is fed up with the fringes. Conservatives running as moderates/centrists win, and the lone far right candidate flames out. I rest my case. Hannity – enjoy your crow my friend.
Update: It’s all about the center and independents:
Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) is walloping New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) among independents with a 58 percent to 31 percent margin, according to exit polling in the contest.
…
In Virginia, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell’s (R) victory was driven by his wide 65 percent to 34 percent margin among independents. Compare that to the 48 percent Obama won among independents in Virginia in 2008 and you begin to see the depths of the rout currently underway in the Commonwealth.
The center has spoken – listen up DC. Listen up GOP. Listen up Democrats.
Update: RCP blog notes Hoffman is toast. “True Conservatives” still in exile.
Update: VA sees down ticket move to GOP as many state delegate races go or lean to GOP. Yeah, this is a democrat nightmare, if you represent a normally GOP district.
[…] lot of luck, prayer, and a few conservatives being put in their place, the GOP may be in a position to pull off a 1994 in a year. In 1994 it all began in Virginia. The whole thing is the movement of independents to the GOP. […]
A Hoffman win would be nice.
Even with the Hoffman loss, I see it as a victory for the conservatives.
Dede is far left of Bill Owens. Some people say that Bill Owens is a blue dog and I did read that he is against the public option so if he stands by this statement, it won’t be a vote for Pelosi’s health care bill.
Hoffman came within 4200 votes, which is saying a lot for a unknown man who began running for this position six weeks prior to the election.
Had the GOP party chosen Hoffman over Dede, Hoffman might have had a better chance at betting Owens.
It’s a message to the GOP party…that they need the conservatives (AJ’s centrists and moderates) and that they need to start inside to begin searching for the conservatives (AJ’s centrists and moderates).
And the fact that a New England state, Maine, repealed the gay marriage law is also a message to the entire country….that the future of the socialists, Marxists, and socialist Democrats are in jeopardy.
If Hoffman decides to run next year, the GOP party had better nominate him. The primaries will decide his future. Had they had the primaries, Dede’s chances wouldn’t be good.
Now as for the huge news in Texas when many Democrats are switching to Republicans. My concern is their ideology, values, and principles.
I don’t think Hannity, Beck, Palin, Thompson, and all, would need to eat crow.
A Hoffman win would have been nice.
Even with a Hoffman loss, it is still a victory for the conservatives (AJ’s centrists and moderates).
Dede happens to be far left of Bill Owens. It is my understanding that Bill Owens is a blue dog and is against the public option. So if he stands by this statement, it won’t be a vote for Pelosi’s Health Care bill. It could help some of the blue dogs.
Hoffman was an unknown and came from behind after six weeks of campaign and managed to get within 4200 votes.
And Maine repealed the gay marriage law.
The conservative movement may start to change this country. We can no longer accept the RINOs and continue to watch the RINOs spend more of our money and raise taxes. If Bush had to negotiate with the RINOs to get the funds for the two wars and get tax cuts, I don’t want those RINO’s in the office any more. Bush or anyone else should ever have to trade or negotiate to get what they wanted. They should vote according to their constituency; not lobbyists and special interests.
And the way the RINOs handled Miers, port deal, illegal immigration, and the military tribunes….
No, we need to replace those RINOs.
So it is a message to the GOP party…that they need the conservatives (AJ’s centrists and moderates) to win more seats and that they need to work from inside to nominate conservatives.
The huge news from Texas is a concern because of their ideology, values, and principles.
ok, AJ, you can delete the first post above.
Unfortunately, last night’s elections may send the wrong message to Obama…that he has to run from the center. Just like Clinton did with the re-election.
I really don’t want Obama to get re-elected. And people need to remember his performance this year.
I wonder if last night’s elections forced Reid to delay his health care bill to next year.
Rossputin has a good post up about Hoffman.
And so does John Grizzi:
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=34260
ALL THE MODERATE REPUBLICANS RUNNING IN NORTH CAROLINA……LOST….
It Depends on the State.
Great News For VA.!!
N.Y. 23, DeDe get’s 5%, Hoffman looses by 3-4%..
As a former Central New Yorker, I can say, if your Conservative, you have an uphill battle. Hoffman has nothing to be ashamed of.
On to 2010…
AJ:Update: RCP blog notes Hoffman is toast. “True Conservatives†still in exile.
ME: It’s hard to understand why AJ so hates people with convictions.
AJ: But the big news may be in NY-23, where the Beck-Hannity candidate is about to be handed his head. I also predicted Owens would win if the far right went too far – and it looks like that also happened.
ME: Fine, what did the “Far Right” do in this race that was “Too Far”? Vote Fraud in N.Y. plus DeDe’s 5% certainly could be factors. Remember, those Voting Machines up there…
AJ: This country is fed up with the fringes. Conservatives running as moderates/centrists win, and the lone far right candidate flames out. I rest my case. Hannity – enjoy your crow my friend.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/
See which party won in N.C. The Republicns ran your “MODERATE/CENTRIST” and they lost.
Each State is different…
Take Care, don’t eat too much crow…
More Election Data to Interpret [John Hood]
Here in North Carolina, we had municipal elections yesterday. The results may be of interest to conservatives elsewhere.
The only major city in North Carolina with a Republican mayor going into Tuesday’s balloting was Charlotte. In a expensive and hard-fought race, a Democratic city councilman, Anthony Foxx, defeated fellow Republican councilman John Lassiter last night, thus taking the top job back for the Democrats for the first time since the late 1980s. Lassiter ran as a moderate, fudging the differences between the two men on virtually every issue and generating little enthusiasm from GOP-leaning voters.
American Thinker has a good article up, too.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/forget_the_21_spin_it_was_a_ro.html
I noticed that Ray Morales came in a strong third behind the Houston mayoral race with almost no funds and little name recognition. I have been reading his facebook and liked what I read of his comments so I voted for him.
Ray was the only conservative in this race.
The Houston mayor race calls for a runoff between Parker and Locke.
Think the conservatism movement is on the rise.
Politico:
DeDe 5.5%
Owens 49.3%
Hoffman 45.2%
Hoffman looses by 4.1%
New York State is tough. That’s why so many of us have left! We had no representation, which resulted in Bigger Government, Higher Taxes, and no jobs. Glad I’m out of there!
But, my new home state, N.C. has been going farther left each election. I’d say it due to two factors:
1. Moderates, when in this state, we are crying out for conservatives.
2. Immigration. So many third worlders here now, you are hard pressed to find a Southern Accent in the Cities. And those immigrants, from what I’ve seen where I work, vote DEM, and listen to NPR…
It’s Rough out there.
Well folks, the weather here is great, I’m getting outdoors. Take Care, enjoy your day!!
Stevevvs, I can’t tell the difference between AJ’s centrists/moderates and the conservatives. AJ’s problem is with the far right and far left that insult everyone and are intolerant with everyone.
And your posts do give a message that it is time for the GOP to seriously go back to the original roots of conservatism.
People cannot tell the difference between the GOP of the last decade and the Democratic party anymore.
Combine today’s GOP and the Democratic Parties into one and we’ll rebuild and rebrand the GOP party.
Oh, somebody said that Obamacare is now pulp. They won’t be pushing it too hard anymore. Cap n Trade and illegal immigration are also pulp.
These elections will embolden the blue dogs.
where the Beck-Hannity candidate
that would be Christie and McConnell, I’d guess.
so, AJ, if you had been voting in NY23, who would you have voted for?
that far right Hoffman or that far left Owens? just curious…
Redteam,
Thankfully I did not have to make that choice. I had a list of centrist GOP candidates in VA to vote for proudly and willingly.
It will be interesting to see how conservatives spin this one. Clearly it is a defeat for the far right – thank heavens! It proves the only way we can win is not to be so extreme.
SJR
The Pink Flamingo
AJ
“Thankfully I did not have to make that choice.”
surely you’re not saying that if you had there would have been
a greater than zero percent chance of voting for Owens?
A flaming lib vs a conservative? hmmmm…..
yeah, I can see where you’re coming from, a really tough choice.
sjreidhead
“It will be interesting to see how conservatives spin this one. Clearly it is a defeat for the far right”
this one? Va, NJ, Maine,? you think the conservatives lost?
attention: ‘Earth calling’..
It is nice to hear the GOP rhetoric shifting from social conservatism to fiscal and role of government conservatism. That is the way forward, I believe. Anyone using a political position to push their cultural values will never get anywhere in this country (and by “anyone” I mean collectively as well as individually) as trying to force cultural values down the throads of Americans is like herding cats or pushing rope or … well, you get the idea.
I don’t need to spin this one. Hoffman as an “R” with some base of support in the district will win between 52 and 55% of the vote. Dede stabbed the republicans in the back and threw the elections to Owens. Sore loser. Owens did better than any Democrat has ever done in Dede’s backyard of Watertown.
She threw the election to Owens. She is an Assemblywoman with many supporters, contacts, and loyal voters. If she stays out of the election, or supports Hoffman, he wins. In 2010 Dede will be a pariah to the local republican bosses, some of which supported Hoffman in 2009. Short term gain and long term loss. I would not be surprised if she changed parties.
Next year there will be a primary, Hoffman will have to move to NY-23 and run a primary campaign, that will build a base for him to run off of and the republican party support of the NRCC and RNC, plus the local party machinery.
Owens will have some tough votes to cast with the looney left running DC and Pelosi forcing all the Blue Dogs to walk the plank. He will have to defend his voting record next year without Dede’s assistance at the polls.