Nov 03 2009
2009 Elections Spell Disaster For Dems In 2010
I have been holding off posting on the election results to see how bad it was going to be in VA – and it is a historic disaster for Democrats. Not only did the Dems lose all three state wide races, they lost them by astounding margins. Â With 70% of the vote in all three GOP WINNERS are ahead by 20% on average. McDonnell is sitting on a 22% win margin. Independents went to the GOP by 60-40. It is a crush.
This is not a local phenomenon. I suspect (and will post later) that Christie wins and Hoffman wins big. I will also now watch CA-10 closely to see how broad this voter backlash tsunami is. But in VA two things are clear: the GOP wave has massive amounts of energy (where McDonnell won he won huge in districts with large votes) and the Dems are out of gas (where Deeds one the voter numbers were pathetic).
A message is being sent to DC tonight. The Tea Partiers are out in mass.
Update: As I predicted Christie blows out Corzine as Dagget voters decide to not waste their vote.
But the big news may be in NY-23, where the Beck-Hannity candidate is about to be handed his head. I also predicted Owens would win if the far right went too far – and it looks like that also happened.
This country is fed up with the fringes. Conservatives running as moderates/centrists win, and the lone far right candidate flames out. I rest my case. Hannity – enjoy your crow my friend.
Update: It’s all about the center and independents:
Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) is walloping New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) among independents with a 58 percent to 31 percent margin, according to exit polling in the contest.
…
In Virginia, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell’s (R) victory was driven by his wide 65 percent to 34 percent margin among independents. Compare that to the 48 percent Obama won among independents in Virginia in 2008 and you begin to see the depths of the rout currently underway in the Commonwealth.
The center has spoken – listen up DC. Listen up GOP. Listen up Democrats.
Update: RCP blog notes Hoffman is toast. “True Conservatives” still in exile.
Update: VA sees down ticket move to GOP as many state delegate races go or lean to GOP. Yeah, this is a democrat nightmare, if you represent a normally GOP district.
MarkN: Next year there will be a primary, Hoffman will have to move to NY-23 and run a primary campaign, that will build a base for him to run off of and the republican party support of the NRCC and RNC, plus the local party machinery.
Actually, next year NY-23 gets redistricted out of existence when NY loses a seat.
Lets look at this with some perspective. The Owens win is pretty much harmless. It is symbolic but little more than that. It is a one year seat. He has to stand for re-election in 12 months time. It is going to take him a couple of months to find his feet in Washington and by that time he will need to start campaigning to keep the seat.
So he will go to Washington for a few weeks and then return to NY to start campaigning again. He isn’t going to accomplish much and his win isn’t going to make any difference in the makeup of the House. It isn’t like his seat makes the difference in who is the majority.
I think the local population simply gave a great big “up yours” to the outsiders who came in and decided to run their district for them. I believe many voted for Owens just to spite all the people from outside the district who were trying to tell them who their “real” candidate should be and how they should vote.
But the “win” for the Democrats is hollow. Owens isn’t going to accomplish much in his few months of “work” before he turns his attention to campaigning again.
I don’t think the census will be done in time for the redistricting of the 2010 election. If NY loses a seat than Hoffman can run in a district which he has some base support.
I would agree that the local voters did not like the outsiders. All politics are local. However, if Dede would have endorsed Hoffman that would have made him an insider. Hoffman went to Dede with hat in hand. She lied to him and stabbed him in the back.
Owens will still have to go on record for some tough votes foisted upon him by Pelosi.
45% for Obama, 49% Against – If Election Were Held Right Now
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/november_2009/45_for_obama_49_against_if_election_were_held_right_now
“if Dede would have endorsed Hoffman that would have made him an insider. Hoffman went to Dede with hat in hand. She lied to him and stabbed him in the back.”
Yeah, but he (Hoffman) was an “outsider”. You have to understand the rural mentality. Owens might be a Democrat but he is THEIR Democrat who probably has deeper roots in the community than Hoffman. And Dede might have been a RINO but she is THEIR RINO and has friends and also roots in the community.
Carpet bagging works much better in urban districts than in rural districts. Local politics is a lot less about national policy and a lot more about “getting things done”. Lets say I own a construction company in that district and my family has lived there for several generations. I might know the cousin of the Congressman or maybe gone to school with him. I might get word that we could sure use some federal highway funds for a new bridge that is falling apart. That same business owner might not know Hoffman from Joe Blow. Maybe Hoffman doesn’t have the local connections, the ties that bind rural people together.
City people just don’t understand rural people. Imagine living in a town that has fewer people than the company you work for and living among them your entire life and the families have all lived together for generations. This results in a MUCH different culture than in a city where people move in and out and around all the time. Your grandfather might have gone to school with the candidate’s grandfather, for example. You might not know each other personally but you know “who” each other are. You can introduce yourself as “so and so’s grandson” and you get “oh, ok, I know who you are, then” even if they have never actually met you before. That doesn’t happen in the city.
If Hoffman doesn’t have deep (or even any) roots in that community, he isn’t going to get anywhere no matter WHAT his national politics are. And his lack of knowledge of the local issues was killer for a candidate in that sort of district.
Don’t go carpet bagging in the country. It doesn’t work.
CP:
Agreed on all the above. That is why Hoffman needed her endorsement. It would have sent a message to all her connections (which I’m sure are numerous), that he is an acceptable outsider. Her endorsement of Owens created a powerful us vs. them mentality. To only lose by 4% under the circumstances bodes well for the future.
The primary campaign will help him with the local issues as well with the community getting to know Hoffman. If he can make it through the primary he won’t be a carpet bagger for the general in 2010.
If Hoffman can improve his retail politics he will have a good chance to flip the seat in 2010.
“That is why Hoffman needed her endorsement.”
And it is also why he was never going to get it. She would endorse “their” Democrat before endorsing an outside conservative and they will every time. That is how country people are. City people (and suburbanites) just don’t get that.
There was no way Dede (or any other local politician with roots in the community) would ever endorse an outsider over a local no matter what their politics. Blood is thicker than water and many of these people are related or have friendships like family that go back generations.
The expectation that Dede would ever have given an endorsement to Hoffman (an outsider) over a local is just nuts. Country people don’t think that way. Dede might or might not agree with Owens’ politics but maybe she knows Owens’ family. Maybe their kin are good customers of her kins’ businesses or maybe they go to the same church or their kids play on the same little league teams.
It isn’t always about politics in the country. It is about “getting stuff done” for your friends and neighbors? Why do you think Murtha is still where he is? He might be a scoundrel, but he is THEIR scoundrel. And no carpet bagger is going to come into the district from outside and knock him out of office no matter what their politics are because it isn’t ABOUT politics for those people. It is about getting by. Which candidate will most likely improve the standard of living of your family and your kids’ family.
Dede was in favor of the stimulus bill. Maybe her district is very depressed economically and friends and relatives of hers saw this as a chance to ease that hardship. I don’t think she would be in favor of it NOW seeing how it has played out in practice, though. But at the time, I could see how a rural politician could be in favor of it when it was being sold as basically a major construction program.
But anyway, thinking even for a moment that Dede would endorse an outsider over a local, even if they are of different parties, displays a great naivety of the rural mindset. They stick together through thick and thin.
“even if they are of different parties, displays a great naivety of the rural mindset. ”
That reads differently than what I meant to say. I meant to say:
even if they are different parties, displays a great naivety on the part of outsiders when it comes to the rural mindset.
I didn’t mean to imply that the rural people were naive, I meant to imply that all the outsiders and bloggers and people who don’t live there are naive in their expectation that politics would trump personal relationships. In the country, they don’t. That is because there is NO woodwork in which to hide. You have to live with these people for the rest of your life or move away. It isn’t like the city when you can change your circle of friends to a completely different set who don’t know each other simply by changing your regular watering hole.
Dede would have been an outcast in her community if she had endorsed Hoffman and that is worse than being an outcast in her party.
The key, almost lost, point of NY-23 is that the Republican, Scozzafava, only got 6%.
The “Republican after thought” conservative candidate, Hoffman, who lost by 2%, may just have lost based purely on party line voting by some Republicans, who didn’t get the message they were dealing with one of those obsolete “Florida-style” ballots (Gore gets you Buchanan).
The lesson for the GOP .. don’t expect somebody else to do your heavy lifting.
Do it simple and do it yourself .. because some voters (in both parties and otherwise) are 4 cans shy of a 6-pack.
[…] the backlash of the independents against the Democrats in Tuesday’s historic elections and the bad news on the unemployment today it is not […]