Jan 15 2010
MA Special Election Won’t Even Be Close
Major Update: Jim Geraghty’s “number cruncher” confirms my analysis using an independent methodology and concludes:
So the question remains what about the whole “special election dynamic” I believe it favors Brown, although, I think there will be some watering down of this advantage. What we are seeing is BROWN winning this race hands down.
On Tuesday, voters should not be discouraged if they here about higher turnout than expected, because that turnout is for Brown. Unless something changes in the next 4 days, this might not even be close.
Emphasis mine. Two distinctly different methods showing the same answer usual means the answer is spot on. – end update.
Looks like that political tsunami rising from the American electorate in response to foolish liberal failures on the economy, health care and national security (they did let two terrorists get through our defenses, probably due to changes in the sensitivity of our reactions to leads) is a lot bigger than anyone could possibly imagine. Yesterday I predicted a Scott Brown win (see here and here).
Today I predict a Scott Brown Landslide – in line with this late breaking PJM poll:
A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget – an Alexandria VA survey research firm – shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday’s special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat. The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.
The poll shows Brown leading 54 -39. It makes sense given the party affiliation numbers I noted yesterday. While it is true Dems outnumber Reps 3 to 1 (37%-13%) in Massachusetts, it is also true Independents equal both combined (49%). Since Brown is winning big with Indies and Reps it means he is winning big with 62% of the electorate and only losing with 37%. Mathematically Coakley just cannot win.
Some back of the envelope calculations show if Coakley wins 90% of Dems (being generous here) she gets 33.3% of the vote (assuming equal turnout in all groups). If she get 15% of the R & I (again being generous here) she gets an additional 9.3% for a total of 42.6%. I think Coakley would be lucky to get 45% all things being equal.
But all things are not equal – the R’s and I’s are energized and coming out in droves. The Dems are jumping ship or staying home. We could see Coakley stuck very close to 40% – which would be a landslide.
The Dems screwed up, they know they screwed up and they know they lost the Independents. So why go out and try and save Reid and Pelosi? The only question now is will the far left (especially in DC) wake up or continue to hide their eyes and pretend it all is not happening.
Update: Ed Morrissey has some good points on turn out models and party affiliation.
So, it is now beginning to look as if the voter turnout will be large enough and the election, regardless of absentee and dead voters, will be so much in Brown’s favor that SEIU/ACORN/DIMOCRATS won’t be able to steal it. All right……
It has to be clearly decided on vote day though, any doubt will throw it to the thieves………
[…] more for good measure: Poll shocker: Brown surges ahead and NRO’s Campaign Spot (Hat tip: The Strata-sphere) Don’t forget Legal Insurrection’s amazing coverage […]
Too good to be true?
HOPEfully not, we need the CHANGE!
It is all about turnout. The three below are the most recent polls and there turnout models.
PPP – 44D – 16R – 39I
Suffolk – 39D – 16R – 45I
PJM – 37D – 20R – 43I
Rasmussen is the only polling firm to have a vastly different turnout model. 52D – 21R – 27I.
Suffolk seems to have a standard general election turnout. PJM seems to have a general election turnout with a slight adjustment for REP energy. PPP seems to have a typical midterm election turnout.
Rasmussen is the only polling firm using a special election turnout model. That would seem prudent in that well, this is a special election. However, this seems to be different special election and why Rasmussen hasn’t changed his turnout model? The only answer I have is that Rasmussen doesn’t have enough data on the ground to shift.
The common ground between all the polls is results. Rep are for Brown at a 90% clip. Brown is winning independents by 65-70% and Brown is winning 20% of Democrats. Last night Coakley just insulted Catholics, ON THE RADIO. Does she live in Massachusettes.
MarkN,
Any poll with Dems out in larger number than Independents is bunk.
AJ, turnout of Independents is generally dismal. They have the lowest turnout numbers of any political demographic. While an increasing number of people identify as Independent, they don’t vote in high numbers, particularly in off-year elections.
An example is the US Military which has a large number of “independents”. About 5% of eligible military cast ballots in 2006.
BUT … it is going to take the Democrats decades to recover from this.
Brown will loose for the following reasons.
1. The Left has turned the page in the political process. The Left is waging “OPEN WAR” on American political tradition. Whereas before the played by the rules, they have now forsaken all appearence of civility, and patriotism.
2. Voters do not determine elections. Democratic party operatives who control the vote count in each district determine outcomes. The Left will stop at nothing to further their agenda. Voter fraud and manipulation will reach new levels.
3. Voter opinion polls consistantly fail to poll the Dead. The Dead vote for the Left witheven greater consistantly than Blacks. The dead will turn out in massive numbers for the democrats.
I hope I am wrong but don’t get your hopes up too high. even is Brown manages to win, it will be held up for weeks or months in court battles.
This is not the old democrat party, its a new hybrid of mainline Marxists.
oneal lane
“2. Voters do not determine elections. Democratic party operatives who control the vote count in each district determine outcomes. The Left will stop at nothing to further their agenda. Voter fraud and manipulation will reach new levels.
3. Voter opinion polls consistantly fail to poll the Dead. The Dead vote for the Left witheven greater consistantly than Blacks. The dead will turn out in massive numbers for the democrats.”
oneal, as much as I wish you were wrong, I don’t think you are.
The Rasmussen poll showing high Dim turnout includes the dead and fictitious. As long as the Dim apparatus controls the polls and voting (as they do in Mass) it is a huge hill to climb to overcome voter fraud. Obama stole the caucus states in primaries, Franken stole Minnesota, that Dim whoever stole upstate New York. Nobody gives a damn, it’s gonna happen in Mass also. The Liberal-Socialist Complex is serious, they don’t intend to lose.
Oneal,
Sorry, but that is so much conspiracy BS. You think our democracy is now gone?
Take the tin foil hat off
AJ:
You question Scott Rasmussen at your own peril. As CP points out the voting turnout of independents is dismal. That said, this race seems to be a little extra special than your usual special election. That is why I’m waiting for Scott to adjust his turnout model in his next poll. I hope Rasmussen issues a poll on Monday.
My personal opinion is that turnout will look like a normal midterm election. 42D – 18R – 40I, with a little extra Rep turnout. So my prediction as of now is Brown 51-48-1.
AJ,
I do not think our democracy is totally gone, however I think it is wounded and in peril. I do believe one party has gone off the tracks, and has turned a deaf ear, and is in pursuit of a dark agenda in spite of massive evidence of public disapproval. (Obamacare).
I do believe that voter fraud in the Democratic controlled areas and inner cities is rampant and the dead vote, and vote often.
I do believe the Democrat party will go to great lengths to institute the Leftist agenda. This election is extremely important to Obama, and potentially embarrasing. The left will do what they have to do to win!
oneal, yes one party (at least) has gone off the tracks and we face threats to the core of America.
But I guess I don’t think the rot has spread too far yet.
So the Franken election was on the up and up?
AJ,
You did not factor in Acorn and SEIU.
Do not forget the old demshevik mafia in MA with their tried and tested “methods” of “winning” elections …
I hope but it’s not a given Brown wins.
oneal,
I think that fact that Ma has regularly elected republican governors shows that you are wrong.
[…] polls and rumors about internal polls for the Massachusetts special election is just stunning. The last two public polls to come out had Coakley behind by 4% and 15%. I seriously doubt the 15% lead for Brown, but the fact is it is completely plausible given […]
[…] about every Republican and commentator knows that Obama is going to Massachusetts to save himself, not […]
[…] http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/12312 […]