Jan 17 2010

MA Special Election Poll Summary

Published by at 9:12 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Poll Updates Below!

All you need to know about the Coakley-Brown race is in this graph from Pollster.com (takes time to load – be patient!).

This composite of all the polls for the race show what happened. Right after the end of the year, when Democrats rammed through their Frankenstein Monster of a health care bill in the senate, the bottom started to drop out of Camelot. It was the straw that broke America’s back, signaled the end of her patience with the liberal madness in DC.

Two poll updates are coming late tonight. One will be PPP’s last poll (around 10:30-11:00 PM Eastern) and an update to that PJM poll showing Brown up 15% (around 3:00 AM Eastern). I expect to wake up to some interesting news … and possibly a brave new world.

Update: PPP has come out with their final results and they are abysmal for Coakley:

Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in our final Massachusetts Senate poll, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.

Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.

Whatever their margin of error, this has to be on the bloody edges of it. Having trouble downloading their cross tabs. When I do will update the post. Update: no mention of turnout model in my quick glance at the poll, which means I have no clue what to make of it.

Update: Ed Morrissey adds his thoughts to the new poll numbers and the state of the race.

Two new polls came out late last night that show Scott Brown rolling into Tuesday’s special election with momentum and possibly an insurmountable lead

The chart above continuously updates and shows the composite results, and confirm’s Morrissey’s conclusions. Scott Brown will win, the question now is by how much.

18 responses so far

18 Responses to “MA Special Election Poll Summary”

  1. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Suhr Mesa, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: new: MA Special Election Poll Summary http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/12374 [...]

  2. Toes192 says:

    Keep ‘m short and to the point Monday & through Tues am, Aj… You are earning a brownie button… WD…

  3. Redteam says:

    Keep ‘m short and to the point

    Ain’t it great!!!!!

  4. kathie says:

    Thank God someones in this country will say ENOUGH OBAMA, ENOUGH. I love the people of Massachusetts. Thank you Scott Brown. I’m counting on your prediction AJ. Good night America, we won a round.

  5. ivehadit says:

    AJ, the PPP poll is out. 51-46 which they say is within the margin of error. 5 points for “error”?

  6. CoolCzech says:

    The PPP poll is out: 51 vs 46, in Brown’s favor.

    I think AJ is right: this thing won’t even be close. Come Wednesday morning, the only question will be, is every last Democrat in Congress suicidal, or will at least one stand up and say, Enough! The people don’t want Obamacare!?

  7. ivehadit says:

    Sorry, it’s 2.8% margin of error.

  8. CoolCzech says:

    Ivehadit, I was thinking the same thing – 5 points is within their margin of error?

  9. ivehadit says:

    from the PPP poll:

    “Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
    health care plan, or do you not have an
    opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
    oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
    press 3.
    Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
    Oppose ………………………………………………….. 48%
    No Opinion……………………………………………… 12%”

    BAM!
    And this from a RALEIGH, North Carolina polling group!

  10. cj_thespook says:

    I have a question that is somewhat off topic, but has to do with the healthcare bill. I live near St. Louis, watching tv, when a commercial came on about obamacare and how they were cutting 20 some odd percent out of medicare (which I knew) but also TRICARE. For those of you who do not know what Tricare is, it is insurance that is used by active duty military and retired military. Does anyone know this to be true? I am a military member and never heard of the tricare cut.

    Also, a note to AJ. My husband is in Afghanistan, and on a downtime has been tasked to develop a blog for the Army. The purpose of the blog is to inform folks of the projects that are being persued right now. He would like if others like yourself would link to the Army’s blog when its ready for posting? He will also have a private ling to his off the Army blog will he will tell stories of his experinces while there. I can tell you now, he has some humerous stories to tell especially, about the Afghani children.

    THanks for your help!

  11. cj_thespook says:

    Okay note to self, edit before posting. I’m really not that illiterate, just brain dead at the moment ya.

  12. MarkN says:

    PPP is a little disengenuous in their comments about being within their margin of error. However, they did adjust their turnout model. 39D – 17R – 44I. So they are estimating that 61% of the electorate will be either Rs or Is. Brown leads the Rs with 95% and the Is with 65%. Brown even gets 17% of the Ds. PPP does claim that the dems are starting to come alive and the turnout may be higher. I’m looking for Rasmussen tomorrow. He has had 52D – 21R – 27I. Coakley needs to have the democrats turnout in higher numbers than independents. I still think that Republicans will be at least 20% of the electorate.

    My prediction from last week still holds. Brown 51-48-1. I hope he wins bigger but my mind does the predicting.

  13. crosspatch says:

    OT: The only functioning terrestrial (non-satellite) Internet operator left running in Haiti with working links to the outside world is within a couple of hours of running out of fuel. This operator services the Haitian government (to the extent that it exists currently), many NGOs, and houses many NGO websites in their data center.

    The generator is nearly out of fuel. They have capacity for 450 to 500 gallons of diesel and run at 8gal/hr.

    When they go dark the only thing left on Haiti is satellite, as far as I know.

    They are Multilink NAP on Boutilliers Hill in Port-au-Prince. I can give exact contact numbers if someone can help. If you know someone who knows someone … even a couple of 55gal drums of diesel will keep the communications infrastructure up several more hours.

    If this site goes down, it will become much more difficult to coordinate aid and communicate among agencies.

  14. SallyVee says:

    cj, maybe not far off topic at all.

    Scott Brown mentioned TriCare on Hannity a few days ago.

    “It’s not good for Massachusetts. We already have 98% of our people insured. We’re going to cut a half a trillion from Medicare, and then cut TriCare for Military people, and then have higher taxation, about a trillion-plus to pay for it…”

    Video here:
    http://www.fontcraft.com/liberty/?p=17633

  15. cj_thespook says:

    Sigh SallyVee,

    Im right now emailing with my husband who is in Kabul, under attack by the taliban. IM So mad and scared at the moment and to think they want to take away our medical insurance, they dont pay them shit, hardly any more when going into battle, right now i feel they dont give a shit about any of us military families. I mad, scared, and I feel helpless right now. To top it off, my husband and his men were ordered to bunker,,,and there werent enough bunkers to take them all!!!!! SO they had to go back to their building. Unfreaking real huh?

  16. cj_thespook says:

    They are covering it live on CNN INternational right now….Husband says, loud booms, and gun fire close by, one big boom shock his building is why they were orderd to bunker…the fight has been going on now i think for little over an hour and still on going..Husband said he is safe but they are not allowed to move around, or go outside. Taliban are launching missiles and atleast 10 sucide bombers have exploded. So far no reports of deaths.

  17. crosspatch says:

    “atleast 10 sucide bombers have exploded. So far no reports of deaths.”

    Wow, those bombers are tough!

    (sorry, just trying to add some levity to what must be a horrible experience for you to go through).

    I said on this site that Obama and the Democrats had until about Christmas to turn things around or he was going to start losing the population. Once it becomes “fashionable” to be against the Democrats, the walls come tumbling down. What the Democrats have had going for them in the urban areas was that it was not socially acceptable to be a Republican or voice criticism of the Democrats. That is changing.

    The Democrats are looking at a situation that only a year ago seemed unthinkable; in Massachusetts, New York, and California, the three most liberal states in the country, we are looking at a real possibility of Republican Senators being elected. The Democrat leadership has got to be looking for a clean change of underwear about now.

    This President and this Congress have completely “blown it”. They totally bought into the rhetoric of their own echo chambers that the Republicans were “dead” and believed they could do whatever they wanted to. Pelosi, Reid, and Obama will go down in history as the most despised government in the history of this country and responsible for the very revival of what they said was “dead”.

    I see postings of people in places like San Francisco saying they are going to, for the first time in their lives, vote a Republican ticket. People are making jokes “what’s black and white and red all over? … the Obama administration.”

    People are really starting to worry that in three years this administration can do so much damage to this country that it might not be undone easily. Our only hope is to replace the parts of government that we CAN influence at the federal, state, and local levels.

    The Democrats are going to be in the worst shape they have been since Reconstruction. I believe that it is possible that not a single standing Democrat will be re-elected if they don’t turn around.

  18. WWS says:

    awesome, crosspatch. It’s hard to know whether I could dare to get my hopes up, although I’m still not sure whether California will *ever* wake up. You’re right, Obama has “blown it”, and I think we have now answered the question – is he some evil genius, a great communicator dedicated to completely changing this country? Or is he just a vainglorious fool of no particular talent and even less insight who just managed to turn up at the right time and place and get himself promoted because he knew how to say nothing and make it sound good?

    I can’t believe he just doubled down on stupid by going and campaigning for a known loser – did he think that he could change anything this late? Did he ever realize that making this a “referendum on healthcare” could destroy his signature issue?
    Chauncey Gardener, indeed.

    On another message board a supporter of his was challenging anyone “what Republican could have run the economy any better over the last 12 months?” My
    answer was “Come on – you could have pulled any bum out of the gutter at random and he would have done a better job than Obama! You’ve got to really work to screw things up this much!”

    btw, CP, reminds me of the old news reader line – “disaster last night, 10 people killed, 3 seriously!”