Apr 09 2010
Left-Leaning Pollster Predicts Democrat Election Disaster
Nate Silver, a left leaning but fairly accurate pollster, is predicting an election disaster for House Democrats in November:
A couple of weeks ago, we examined the potential upside case for Democrats in November’s midterms. If the party were able to limit their losses to about 20 House seats and 3-4 Senate seats, it might not have as deleterious an effect on their policy agenda as you might think.
But that is the upside case for Democrats. It is not the base case, and it is certainly not the worst case — both of which look as grim as ever. Although I think people may somewhat underestimate the probability of a shift in momentum back toward the Democrats, they may simultaneously be underestimating the magnitude of losses that might occur if momentum fails to change, or moves in the other direction.
…
…on average the generic ballot has overestimated the Democrats’ performance in the popular vote by 3.4 points since 1992. If the pattern holds, that means that a 2.3-point deficit in generic ballot polls would translate to a 5.7 point deficit in the popular vote — which works out to a loss of 51 seats, according to our regression model.
…
And what if, for example, the Rasmussen case comes into being? Rasmussen has the Democrats losing the generic ballot by 9 points (and has had similar numbers for awhile). A 9-point loss in the House popular vote would translate into a projected 65-seat loss for Democrats. Or, if we adjust the Rasmussen poll to account for the fact that the Democrats’ performance in the popular vote tends to lag the generic ballot, it works out to a 12.4-point loss in the popular vote, which implies a loss of 79 seats!
Personally I think Rasmussen, who is also damn accurate, is closer to reality. Â And I think we are not seeing the high point of discontent yet. I also see a reasonable scenario where the Senate is lost to the Dems as well. Right now they are going to likely lose 7 seats (yes, I know it is too early to make predictions). If the right GOP candidates are selected in WI, WA and CA I see the Dems losing at least 2 more. Â And if NY starts to go under water for the Dems forget about keeping the Senate.
As with Clinton in 1994, the Democrats have only their own leaders to thank for the pending debacle. If not for the mindless and arrogant liberal push by Obama, Reid and Pelosi the nation would probably still be backing a centrist-left Democrat party. But that was the opportunity wasted and now gone. Â The reality, as I noted this morning, is when you ignore the wishes of We The People in a democracy We The People fire your ass.
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James Carville predicts a blood bath too. I have kept an eye on Rasmussen, through the Bush years and then Obama, I would say he is right on, never too optimistic or pessimistic. I sure hope he is correct, this Nation can’t continue with no checks on this President.
kathie:
I agree.
“And I think we are not seeing the high point of discontent yet.”
Absolutely – just wait for:
(1) Cap and trade
(2) Immigration
(3) Net “neutrality”
(4) More foreign policy bungling
(5) $4/gas (to go along with Cap and Trade)
(6) VAT tax proposals
I also think Bart Stupak’s “retirement” today will prompt even more of our corrupt congress to contemplate spending “more time with their families”…
One of my hopes when G.W. Bush was elected was that he would do to the national democratic party what he did to the state party in Texas; wipe them out.
It looks like BDS may have done that for him after he left office. Obama was elected in large part because the media mercilessly defamed Bush. No mistake was left exagerated, sensationalized or un-60-minuted and every accomplishment, down played, ignored, mis reported or lied about. He was not a perfect president by any means but the left went insane over him beating Al Gore (And he did beat him in a fair election that the democrats tried to steal) which is where the media started lying about him.
I feel that Obama was elected in large part because he claimed to be the anti-Bush candidate. Bush hatred gave us Obama. It looks like it is going to destroy the democratic party and remake the republican party. This coming election, assuming the democrats do not steal it through voter fraud may be G.W. Bush’s greatest accomplishment.
Fai Mao,
HHHmmm…it’s interesting how you phrased GWB’s greatest accomplishment by convincing Americans to vote for Obama.
I have thought that God had it all planned by allowing Obama to win in order to wake up the sleeping giant in this country.
Matt Spalding is right as he says that we are constantly tested. The FFs designed the federal government as a constant test subjecting all Americans.
Good list archtop, but how about this:
(1) Obama loses both the ‘Stan and Iraq.
Not wishing for it, but sure as hell fearing it. While getting outplayed by the Russians, pissing off Karzai, and conveniently announcing exactly how long the bad guys have to hold on until we go away, he owns both of these campaigns now.
He owns ’em and he can’t fob them off on Bush, because he has taken full credit for anything good that has occured in either since he took office (and even before), and made a BFD about how “carefully” he weighed sending in more troops.
Unless he just says to hell with it and settles for one term (and he well might), Obama may be forced to go against his instincts and do something good for America’s security by changing his run-away plans to a plan for victory.
All that money and troop casaulties…wasted if Obama decides “Peace with Honor” over victory.
Now talk about a community organizer’s lack of experience compared to Sarah Palin’s while her son is deployed.
So I received one of those emails that “makes the rounds” and is often untrue but I can’t find anything at snopes on this one.
Basically the gist of it is that Obamacare is the beginning of the Dhimmi tax in America because Muslims are exempt from both the mandate for insurance and penalties for not having it. This would probably be for the same reason the Amish are exempt.
Specifically it says
Has anyone seen the actual bill passed by Congress and signed by the President to see if this is true?
The good news is that the dems strategy for 2010 is to run against Bush.
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/22152
Is anybody suspicious about the accident that killed the Polish President and a host of other top government and military officials. Is this a Russian reset button?
Kathie, word is the airport was closed due to extremely dense fog, the pilot was instructed to divert to another airport, he ignored instructions and made three attempts before crashing on the 4th attempt.
I would say this is pilot error.
Wait until Obama’s next SCJ appointment coming up…..then watch the poll numbers. The Senate will be a zoo.
The 2010 election is about jobs and the Obama Administration’s policies are killing job growth in private sector small businesses.
When the bush tax cuts end and the Obama health care taxes kick in in 2011, unemployment will be worse in 2012 than in 2010.
Everything else is political trivia compared to those facts.
AJ,
Another link for your Obama Administration “It’s the jobs, stupid” files.
http://www.koco.com/money/23115825/detail.html
Even the AP has this one figured out.
I cannot believe that Lindsay Graham and Schumer are planning to introduce the Amnesty bill.
If only the Senate would focus on SCOTU nomination to prolong this Amnesty bill but Obama’s going to be ramming this Amnesty bill through.
Too bad that Obama has Lindsay in his pocket to pass this unwanted bill.
Lurker,
this has been the plan since day one. Pass the biggest entitlement ever in history and then sign up the border transgressors for the freebees and grant them voting rights just before the election. Rally the Immigrants demanding their freebes and give them the right to vote.
Walllah 20-30 million new votes who will take to the streets with a vengence to protect their newly found rights.
Healthcare is a major reason they flock here anyway and they are the perfect demographic for a community organizer to get all worked up.
Their may be blood in the streets because of this President.
Lindsay Graham and the Republican Party of South Carolina need to have their phones ringing off the hook. This guy is as dangerous as a Dem Progressive he is a Dem in Republican hides and needs to be gotten rid of.
Crosspatch…..it is not believable that a Polish pilot would take such a risk with so many important people on board his plane. I am forced to believe something else went on. Fog can be navigated.
Wow, Rasmussen has Obama’s average at 46.1…….the lowest I’ve seen. Obama has been between 48 and 47.1 at the lowest. He is really falling like a stone, and he is going to introduce cap and trade, and immigration reform when the recess is over.
“Term limits!! We don’t need no stinkin’ term limits!!”—-oh wait we had them all along and are just now starting to realize it.
Glad to see that the Dems are scheduled to get lumped but an independent candidate would help serve the same purpose of watering down their power—doesn’t necessarily have to be a GOP (Not that there is any difference anyway). Just get some new blood in there—the incestuous nepotism that we have been forced to subsidize must end. Hopefully we have learned the lesson that a complete incompetent with absolutely no real world experience should never be elected POTUS. Time to “Take the Power Back”