Jun 15 2010

Writing On The Wall For Dems This Fall

Published by at 6:33 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Democrats, you folks screwed up. You went too far left, you focused on the wrong issues (you may recall people need good jobs or everything else goes to crap). You forced an unwanted and costly take over of health care. And you will pay at the polls this year, so says liberal NPR and Democrat pollster Stan Greenberg:

Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger conducted the first public battleground poll of this election cycle. They chose the 70 House districts experts regard as most likely to oust incumbents this fall. What they found was grim news for Democrats.

These are this year’s swing seats — the political terrain where the battle for control of the House of Representatives will be won or lost. In this battleground, voters are choosing Republicans over Democrats 49 percent to 41 percent.

Wow, a +8% edge for the usually under-polling GOP. Nearly 50% of the nation now lined up in swing districts to oust the liberal-led Democrats in Congress. Can’t wait to see how Mr. Hope and Change deals with this kind of sea change.

He pointed out that President Obama’s approval ratings are much lower in these competitive districts than they are nationally: 54 percent of the likely battleground voters disapproved of Obama’s performance; 40 percent approved.

“It’s very problematic for the president to have a 40 percent approval rating in these 60 Democratic districts,” Bolger said. “When you look at history, when the president is below 50 percent nationally, his party tends to lose more than 40 seats.”

It seems just in these swing states the GOP has the opportunities to swamp the dems and take control of the House. Given how many Democrat seats in the senate are lost or toss ups, the wave of voter ire is growing to historic proportions. The Dems better wonder now if the voters will care to see them back in power ever again? Will the far left be missed and this fiasco?. Yet there is more:

“When you look at the generic ballot for Congress in the Democrat-held seats, the Republican is up by 5 [points]. But among those who rate their interest as 8 to 10, you know, the high-interest voters, the Republican leads in those Democratic seats 53 to 39.

If that +14% trend remains into the voting booth, there is no question the Democrats will lose both houses. Seriously, that’s a lot of anger. Like Clinton and Carter before them, Democrat Presidents are good for one thing: they remind the nation why center-right is always better than far left.

16 responses so far

16 Responses to “Writing On The Wall For Dems This Fall”

  1. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Free To Prosper, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: new: Writing On The Wall For Dems This Fall http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/13597 [...]

  2. BarbaraS says:

    It is good that voters are finally catching on that the dem party is no longer the party of the working man. I wonder if a majority of yellow dogs will change also. They have to see that the dem party is now socialist/marxist/fascist/communist. Everything they have passed reflects those ideologies. The dem reps and senators are arrogant and act like they are entitled to special treatment and are just a little better than their constitutents. The air in Washington, DC changes people if they stay too long and these critters have definitely stayed too long.

  3. WWS says:

    Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.

  4. lurker9876 says:

    My concern is when the Republicans gain back the majorities, how will they govern? Since the Republicans have been a minority party for such a long time, they have never learned to govern themselves as a majority party. Additionally, they have never had a strong majority (e.g., minimum 60 vote). So in the past when they get the majority, they fail to govern according to the founding principles.

    Additionally, people still have been so brainwashed about Christianity to the point that they hate all of it. And today’s churches practice social justice.

    So…even the GOP politicians know that they are given one more chance after November or their party will whig-ther away. The tea party movement, while fractured and leadership by intentional design, appears to be strong enough to convey this message to the GOP party. If they manage to stick together as a strong movement, they just might step in as a third party for 2012.

  5. It’s the jobs, stupid.

    From
    1) The financial crisis to,
    2) The “stimulus” bill to,
    3) “Health care reform” to,
    4) Financial reform to,
    5) The off-shore drilling moritorium,
    Pres. Obama and Congressional Democrats have done nothing but sow fear, uncertainty and doubt as to future employment costs where they have not been utterly destructive of existing jobs.

    Republicans are well set to re-use this Reagan line:

    “It is a recession when your friends and neighbor lose their jobs, it is a depression when you lose your job, and it is an economic recovery when Pres. Barrack Hussein Obama loses his job.

  6. WWS says:

    As much as I enjoy watching the Tea Party movement take off, it’s still primarily a protest vehicle, not an actual party. And unless strong and decisive leadership arises which can organize and discipline it, then it will never move past that stage of development.

    Every commonly held Tea Party position consists of things that a large number of people are against. This is not a criticism, just an observation, since I do think much of what is going on today needs to be opposed. But it’s easy to unite in opposition to a government even while it is very difficult to unite in coming up with a strategy to face far more difficult problems.

    For example, what do we do about underfunded pensions? Do we raise taxes to fix them, or do we cut back on what the retired policemen and firemen were promised? And what is the Tea Party’s position on Iranian nuclear proliferation? I haven’t heard one. Do we go to war, if necessary, to stop it or do we try to contain them? What is the Tea Party’s position on Afghanistan? Iraq? Pakistan? China? Europe? I don’t believe anyone can credibly say there is one, and yet these are the kind of questions that have to be answered if this is to be a *real* movement and not just an angry flash in the pan.

    A leaderless movement is fine as long as that movement is focused on opposition only – but to go beyond that someone must take control.

  7. oneal lane says:

    WWS,

    I hope the Tea party Movement remains a movement, a set of ideas, and not a full fledged seperate party. It needs to remain a movement within the Republican Party.

    As a seperate political party it will only serve to insure leftist victory by splitting Republican votes. Thus, it will end up functioning as Ross Perot did, and insure leftist victory. Without Perot, Bush woud have more than likely won again.

    I know many will disagree with this opinion, but I believe this view is largely correct.

  8. lurker9876 says:

    oneal, I have always believed that Bush would’ve won without Perot.

    WWS, I have not read anything in a few mission statements regarding Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, China, and Europe. But I think that each tea party participants have their own opinions.

  9. oneal lane says:

    WWS

    Additionally, I shun the idea of the need for a “leader” for the Tea Party.

    Leftists need leaders to tell them what to do and think and to guide them along and to inspire them with promises.

    The hallmark of conservatism is independent thought and action. We are inspired by ideals. At least some of us are.

    We need viable candidates at every level that reflect the ideals of smaller financially responsible governemtn, low taxes….. you know the rest. I think ther is a wide body of views in the TPM as its has attracted people from the far right, right, center right and center.

    I don’t think anyone owns it totally.

  10. Terrye says:

    The only hope the Democrats have is for the right to turn on itself. In other words, a third party.

    And I think that right now a lot of people actually think Clinton would be better than Obama or Carter. There were a lot of things about Clinton I did not approve of or agree with, but he was a lot better at the job of President than either Carter or Obama. For one thing, I think Clinton actually liked America.

    And I am not worried about the Republicans not going far enough right for some people. I just want Pelosi and Reid out of there.

  11. WWS says:

    When you said Clinton, I thought you were going to talk about Hillary. And you know, I think Hillary would have been a *Lot* better than THIS jagoff!!

    And yet by tying herself to him, she is going down with his ship.

    Here’s what’s amazing to contemplate – if Obama does indeed lose in 2012, he will take down the career of almost every prominent Dem over the last 20 years with him, with the exception of a handful of long time senators. And even their numbers will be dwindling fast thanks to age as much as anything. (how much longer can Robert Byrd hang on, after all?)

  12. lurker9876 says:

    I can never understand why Hillary accepted her job as the State.

    So now we’re seeing jittery Democrats….well, somewhat. They failed to pass today’s new resolution to repeal that “individual mandates” in ObamaCare.

    Shows that the Democrats don’t mean what they tell us!

  13. MarkN says:

    I wonder what the poll numbers were in Etheridge’s district. Mighty testy that one.

    No more links AJ. I went to the poll link this morning and I just now found my eyeballs to put back in my head. These numbers better improve for the Dems. We are not talking about 2008, 2006, 1994, these are 1946 numbers.

    Great post!!!! Next time preface it with a warning, please.

  14. AJStrata says:

    MarkN,

    My apologies, hope you got those eyeballs back in place!

  15. BarbaraS says:

    Don’t give Bill Clinton any kudos for being a centrist. He was far left until congress shifted in 1994. That is why he became a centrist. Remember Hillarycare? They tried their best to pass that dreck. And Hillary is an Alinsky student. Bill probably is too. What Bill really is is a phoney. Remember the budget crisis he caused and blamed the republicans and they let him get away with it? Remember he only signed welfare reform because he had no choice. I don’t look back on these grifters with any nostalgia. We can do better than them and have on numerous occassions. Just because Obama is so awful is no reason to forget the Clintons were awful in their own way.

  16. stevevvs says:

    Did anyone see the first episode of Freedom Watch on the Fox Business Channel last Saturday? It was really good. Judge Napolitano had a Tea Party Summit with Sarah Palin, Dick Armey, Rand Paul, Michelle Bachman, Ron Paul, Jim Demint, etc. He wanted to see if the different fractions of the Tea Party movement could find common ground. It was very intersting, I hope to remember to record this Saturdays show.

    If interested, this is a link to the different segments:

    http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=45C36BDCC7FAB086

    Feel free to check it out if interested. Take Care Folks!