Sep 02 2010
House Shifting Right
If you look at all the new house polls out today, and then check were each race sits on the RCP spectrum, we see that RCP is going to be moving the house very much towards the GOP sometime today or tomorrow, once all those polls are processed.
Looks like AZ1, AZ5, CO3, will go from toss up to lean GOP
Looks like CA47 will go from likely dem to toss up
If my math is right that means the Dems will drop to 193 (-1) seats safe or leaning, the GOP will rise to 209 (+3) safe or leaning. An amazing -16 seat deficit. Â The toss ups will be 33, almost all Dem incumbents.
No wonder everyone agree the House is probably lost.
AJ,
Dick Morris has a very good point about wave elections, late deciders, and Democratic House chances on November 2, 2010 here:
http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/party-trend-has-yet-to-kick-in/
And he laso says the Republicans are going to take the Senate and backs it up with poll numbers here:
http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/how-republicans-will-win-the-senate/
I still have family in Phoenix and Scottsdale. Every one there, including the Democrats, knows that the 3 Dem Congressional seats in AZ were lost as soon as Obama sued Arizona.
btw, my folks live in the district that’s going to elect Dan Quayle’s kid. Won’t be all that close.
and McCain was certainly vulnerable this year, but Hayworth had become too much of a local media clown for anyone to take him seriously anymore.
[…] you if you don’t register to vote – hotair.com 09/02/2010 Do it, wimp. more… House Shifting Right – strata-sphere.com 09/02/2010 If you look at all the new house polls out today, and then […]
Well, Obama said the difference between 1994 and now is that now the Kleptocrats have him. He might turn out to be right but not in the sense that he had intended.
Even the dimwits in the UK have begun to notice this
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/democrats-face-loss-of-both-house-and-senate-in-midterm-meltdown-2069237.html
[…] As I noted yesterday, a slew of House polls came out that should have pushed RCP to set the GOP seat count at 209 and the Dems at 193. I know they loathe to get too optimistic on one sample, but then again that’s today’s snapshot. I still expect the GOP side to tick up to the magic number for House control before the end of September (depending on how many polls come in). […]