Sep 03 2010

Wild Polls, Some Predictions

MA may be ready to turn further right as Duval Patrick’s over GOP contender Baker for Governor is now down to 2% in the latest Rasmussen poll!

And what is going on in the NY Senate race? Quinnipiac has a slew of polls out for the Gildabrand race and it shows her now at 43-45%? Granted, her challengers are in the mid 20′s, but that seems awfully low for an incumbent.

And it looks like Whitman is beginning to pull away in the CA governor’s race as well, now up by 7%. RCP should move this to Lean-R very soon.

As I noted yesterday, a slew of House polls came out that should have pushed RCP to set the GOP seat count at 209 and the Dems at 193. I know they loathe to get too optimistic on one sample, but then again that’s today’s snapshot. I still expect the GOP side to tick up to the magic number for House control before the end of September (depending on how many polls come in).

On the Senate side I watched as the PA polls trended towards Toomey, and then the OH polls trended towards Portman, knowing it was only a matter of time before the older polls fell out of the equation and RCP moved these two states into the Leans-R column. Right now RCP has it 48 Dems – 45 Reps. The next two states to shift will be CO & FL (just waiting for stale poll data to move off), and that will bring the tally to 48 D – 47 R. That should happen in the next two weeks.

Then the fun begins. Which state will domino next? My guess is it will be WA. That would bring the tally to 48-D & 48-R, and all of a sudden the GOP is within striking distance of the Senate.

IL, WI, CA and NV seem to be stuck at ties for now.  I also can see WV and CT heading into the toss up category as the political wave keeps rising in the next few weeks. It could happen faster, but you have to get distance from the summertime polls which still reflected some hope for Dems.

Update: Just finished this post and Charlie Cook comes out to admit the Senate is now in play. It will come down to WI, IL, CA & NV.  If the GOP gets 3 of them they win the prize.

7 responses so far

7 Responses to “Wild Polls, Some Predictions”

  1. AJ,

    The Democrats have just comitted to go all in with a major negative advertising campaign nation wide.

    If for nothing else, they intend to drive down the turn out of independent voters.

    The Reid-Angle Senate campaign and the associated poll numbers bear that out.

    I just don’t expect the Democrats negative advertising to be successful reaching and motivating the young demographics they got in 2008.

    They don’t listen to radio — they use MP3 players.

    They don’t watch commercials — they watch TV via DVR’s.

    They don’t e-mail — they text.

    They use social media — and they unfriend as faster than they friend.

    So how is the Democratic negative campaign message going to get to them?

  2. lurker9876 says:

    Trent, wws, and others,

    Won’t work. Remember that the unemployment rate for the youth is higher than 9.5, now 9.6 percent. We already know a friend who has two high school and college students that were unable to find jobs this and last summer.

    After I read this article over at American Thinker (http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/09/gop_quandary_is_it_better_off.html), I disagree with it. I think that if the Republicans get one or both houses, the Republicans should be bold enough to introduce reasonable and small bills germane to one and only one issue and that these bills are catered to reducing the size of the federal government, balance the budget, spend within means based on low and simple tax rates, reform SS, Medicare, Medicaid, repeal unwanted bills like ObamaCare.

    The Democrats painted the Republican party as the party of NO! Let the Democrats vote NO and the Americans will see them also as the party of NO!

    The lame-stream media, liberals, Obama, etc., will start such vitriolic attacks against the Republicans.

  3. lurker9876 says:

    I meant to ask, what do you think about this article? Do you think that the Republican Party should go bold and not do the “go along just to get along” mentality?

  4. [...] by AJStrata at 7:49 am under 2010 Elections, All General Discussions I noted yesterday that the the anti ‘big government’ wave building in the country was about to make [...]

  5. WWS says:

    I’ve seen Texas dems running full page ads in local newspapers screaming “PERRY IS A COWARD” – not even a word about Bill White anywhere in the ad, just full throated shrieking about “I HATE PERRY!!!”

    It’s not going to work – it’s way too shrill, hysterical, and personal, and even democrats find it disgusting because it is so desperate. And no one reads stuff like that and comes away with any good feelings for White – they just walk away disgusted. Perry, meanwhile, looks calm, collected, and competent by comparison, and all he has to do is sit there and smile. (actually he has been touring small town Texas aggressively all summer, the big papers don’t report on this much but it’s been effective)

    I point out this race because I have seen this personally, I can see it failing, and I see this as a good example of the action and the response that are going to happen across this country over the next 2 months.

  6. >I meant to ask, what do you think about this article? Do you
    >think that the Republican Party should go bold and not do the
    >“go along just to get along” mentality?

    Oh Hell no!

    The Republicans should pick as many fights as possible.

    Make everything a pro-jobs bill that gores Democratic special interest oxes like public employee unions.

    Make the Democrats vote on those bills over and over in the House and Senate.

    Bring in AG Holder under oath and ask him very difficult questions on 1) Protecting soldiers voting rights, 2) The Black Panther affair, 3) The back door legalization illegal immigration via executive inaction.

    Do the same thing with the Head of BATF and ask him about why we cannot import American M1 Garands from South Korea for the American gun collector market.

    Go after the EPA on trying to legislate Carbon via killing their budget. Have lots and lots of messy amendments that have to be voted on over and over relating to coal mining and oil drilling that will bring out the greens and cost Democrats votes in Appalachia and the oil states.

  7. [...] The race has moved from ‘solid Dem’ to ‘toss up‘ in a few short weeks. Also as I predicted, FL has joined OH and PA (and many other senate races) in the ‘leans GOP‘ at RCP, [...]