Sep 03 2010
MA may be ready to turn further right as Duval Patrick’s over GOP contender Baker for Governor is now down to 2% in the latest Rasmussen poll!
And what is going on in the NY Senate race? Quinnipiac has a slew of polls out for the Gildabrand race and it shows her now at 43-45%? Granted, her challengers are in the mid 20’s, but that seems awfully low for an incumbent.
And it looks like Whitman is beginning to pull away in the CA governor’s race as well, now up by 7%. RCP should move this to Lean-R very soon.
As I noted yesterday, a slew of House polls came out that should have pushed RCP to set the GOP seat count at 209 and the Dems at 193. I know they loathe to get too optimistic on one sample, but then again that’s today’s snapshot. I still expect the GOP side to tick up to the magic number for House control before the end of September (depending on how many polls come in).
On the Senate side I watched as the PA polls trended towards Toomey, and then the OH polls trended towards Portman, knowing it was only a matter of time before the older polls fell out of the equation and RCP moved these two states into the Leans-R column. Right now RCP has it 48 Dems – 45 Reps. The next two states to shift will be CO & FL (just waiting for stale poll data to move off), and that will bring the tally to 48 D – 47 R. That should happen in the next two weeks.
Then the fun begins. Which state will domino next? My guess is it will be WA. That would bring the tally to 48-D & 48-R, and all of a sudden the GOP is within striking distance of the Senate.
IL, WI, CA and NV seem to be stuck at ties for now. Â I also can see WV and CT heading into the toss up category as the political wave keeps rising in the next few weeks. It could happen faster, but you have to get distance from the summertime polls which still reflected some hope for Dems.
Update: Just finished this post and Charlie Cook comes out to admit the Senate is now in play. It will come down to WI, IL, CA & NV. Â If the GOP gets 3 of them they win the prize.