Oct 04 2010
I missed the launch of the Gallup likely voter generic ballot numbers earlier today (playing Mr. Mom to the twins), but it was worth the wait (click to enlarge).
I still cannot fathom the impact of these numbers on House, Senate and Governor races, but I guarantee you no pollster’s current turnout models have been run with this kind of lopsided enthusiasm gap. It is best seen in the change from ‘likely voters‘ and high turnout (which means the Dems can kick their base into a frenzy somehow in the face of all this malaise). In this best case scenario, the GOP is ahead by 13% points! That right there spells w-i-p-e-o-u-t-!
But looks what happens if the voter mood is still more like the governor races in VA & NJ in 2009 and the MA special senate election in January 2010. If angry GOP and Independent voters flex their joint muscle against Obama, Reid and Pelosi, then the generic advantage jumps to 18%! That is why so many long term incumbent dems are in trouble in both houses of Congress. The Tsunami wave won’t reach Pelosi or Maxine Waters, but it will wipe out people in D+2 districts, I have no doubt. This is why even O’Donnell can win in DE. Low turnout on the Dem side will be a total d-i-s-a-s-t-e-r.
So can the Dems do a better job of rallying American voters than they did in the battle of the DC Mall demonstrations? I seriously doubt it. Either way, the dems are just trying to minimize the blow by rallying their base. They cannot save their House majority right now. It’s either down by 13% or 18% – they have no firewalls that can stop those numbers.
Update: On this page at Gallup you get the staggering numbers on the independents. In the best case scenario of likely voters & high turnout, independents side with the GOP 56-31, or 25%
15%! In the worst case scenario independents go with the GOP 59-30, or by 19%! This is what happens when you over reach and push beyond the center’s comfort zone. It will be a harsh lesson to the Dems come November and a very stark warning to the GOP as they take control of Congress in 2011.
Madam Speaker, start emptying that office We The People loaned you. Majority Leader Reid, you might want to begin packing too. President Obama – you will be a one term President.