Oct 04 2010
Historic Gallup Generic Poll – GOP Blow Out
I missed the launch of the Gallup likely voter generic ballot numbers earlier today (playing Mr. Mom to the twins), but it was worth the wait (click to enlarge).
I still cannot fathom the impact of these numbers on House, Senate and Governor races, but I guarantee you no pollster’s current turnout models have been run with this kind of lopsided enthusiasm gap. It is best seen in the change from ‘likely voters‘ and high turnout (which means the Dems can kick their base into a frenzy somehow in the face of all this malaise). In this best case scenario, the GOP is ahead by 13% points! That right there spells w-i-p-e-o-u-t-!
But looks what happens if the voter mood is still more like the governor races in VA & NJ in 2009 and the MA special senate election in January 2010. If angry GOP and Independent voters flex their joint muscle against Obama, Reid and Pelosi, then the generic advantage jumps to 18%! That is why so many long term incumbent dems are in trouble in both houses of Congress. The Tsunami wave won’t reach Pelosi or Maxine Waters, but it will wipe out people in D+2 districts, I have no doubt. This is why even O’Donnell can win in DE. Low turnout on the Dem side will be a total d-i-s-a-s-t-e-r.
So can the Dems do a better job of rallying American voters than they did in the battle of the DC Mall demonstrations? I seriously doubt it. Either way, the dems are just trying to minimize the blow by rallying their base. They cannot save their House majority right now. It’s either down by 13% or 18% – they have no firewalls that can stop those numbers.
Update: On this page at Gallup you get the staggering numbers on the independents. In the best case scenario of likely voters & high turnout, independents side with the GOP 56-31, or 25% 15%! In the worst case scenario independents go with the GOP 59-30, or by 19%! This is what happens when you over reach and push beyond the center’s comfort zone. It will be a harsh lesson to the Dems come November and a very stark warning to the GOP as they take control of Congress in 2011.
Madam Speaker, start emptying that office We The People loaned you. Majority Leader Reid, you might want to begin packing too. President Obama – you will be a one term President.
I am not so sure that democrats like Pig-of-a-lousey and Maxine Waters are safe this year.
I was holding out for a 100 seat turnover. I think that is the floor right now that the democrats will loose.
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by AJ Strata, Free To Prosper. Free To Prosper said: Historic Gallup Generic Poll – GOP Blow Out http://bit.ly/bWOzsQ :: Strata-sphere […]
The funny part will be Charles Lollar taking Steny Hoyer out.
Pelosi is a big help for Republicans. Hoyer is far more crafty, and would be a formidable minority leader. Taking him out would be a masterstroke.
If you look at the Foxnews frontpage, McMahon and Blumenthal in the CT senate race had a debate tonight. I didn’t see it, but McMahon apparently did well. This is one race that should be on everyone’s radar screens – if the indies pull big for McMahon, it’s over for Blumenthal.
I also see the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s endorsement of Sharon Angle as a good sign for the NV race.
If we also get WV (looking more likely each day) and one of CA or WA, then it’s goodbye Democrat Senate…
[…] My previous post on the shocking Gallup numbers is here. […]
What the Gallup poll means is that the Democrats are going to lose 1-2 more Senators than anyone expects and that are completely off the radar screen right now.
Watch Oregon.
Trent,
I also think NY Special is going to go to the GOP. I think CA, WV, WA all go, with NY-S and CT on the cusp. A really big wave even pulls in DE.
AJ,
Oregon has a special local issue ion that the public employee unions passed a referendum income tax increase in a low turn out election.
Those tax increases are biting now and the Oregon Democratic Party establishment supported the effort and now owns the “high taxes in a recession” brand label.
Lethal does not cover what that means in a +13 Republican turn out year.
Minor arithmetic error, AJ:
“In the best case scenario of likely voters & high turnout, independents side with the GOP 56-31, or 15%!”.
That is 25%.
Rick C,
Thanks!
“A really big wave even pulls in DE.”
Yep and it appears it will be an historical blowout.
witch’s ? in, Marxists out.
[…] facing America. It really comes down to what is motivating the voters, this election cycle. As Gallup shows in their “likely voter” model, it is not a pro big government, pro big government party […]