Oct 07 2010
Update: Hotline has compiled a list of Dem House seats currently polling under 50% for the incumbent and they have tallied 66 such instances!
And a staggeringly high number of Democratic incumbents are below the 50 percent mark, including members in much of the polling conducted by Democratic firms released to counteract the GOP narrative. House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd compiled an invaluable database of all the House race polling conducted this cycle and found 66 Democratic incumbents sitting below that magic 50 percent number.
This to me is the GOP floor for November. Sadly the actual list is behind a pay-wall, but that overall news is stunning enough. - end update
We are one week into October and the House is slipping out of the hands of the Democrats already. Barring something very bizarre (and therefore questionable), it looks like the reign of Nancy Pelosi is coming to an end. RCP has the GOP up in the house race 210 to the Dems 186. For comparison the current make up is GOP 178 – Dems 255. That means the GOP has the lead in 32 Dem held seats and is 8 races away from the majority. A goal easily within their grasp.
In the “toss up” category there are 38D seats and 2R seats. A solid indication of how bad this cycle will be for Dems is the HI1 seat, which is currently R and thought to be an easy D pickup in the blue state of Hawaii. Apparently not anymore, as the latest poll has the race a statistical tie with a 1% difference. The fact this race has moved to this stage is another indicator of the breadth of voter backlash across this nation.
The worst that could happen here is the GOP loses 2 seats. The worst for the Dems is they lose all 38 seats. I don’t see that happening, but I do see them losing a vast majority of them.
A quick sample of the latest polls (Sept or later) in this group shows the following incumbents behind or below 50% (45% is the death zone for any incumbent):
These 11 races look to almost all go to the GOP since district level polling is the most imprecise of all, and the least consistent in dealing with ‘likely voters‘ in a wave election (I struggled with keeping NM1 in the list) . Many of the other 27D races in the RCP “toss up” category simply do not have recent polls. Only a handful look winnable for the D’s. I could go into the “Leans Dems” category and find other races that should go GOP as well. Clearly the GOP has the races in place to take control of the House of Representatives as it is. It really is coming down to how big a blow out this election cycle will be.
And that all comes down to how angry the American voters are for runaway and wasted spending, bailouts for the fat cats and unemployment and food stamps for Main Street, and the arrogance of DC elites telling us we are too racist and stupid to understand the problems facing America. It really comes down to what is motivating the voters, this election cycle. As Gallup shows in their “likely voter” model, it is not a pro big government, pro big government party year.