Oct 19 2010
Gallup Holding Steady With Democrat Wipe Out
Signals, signals, signals. There are so many red flashing lights for the Democrats this cycle it is hard to keep track of them all. What I find the most interesting is the struggle to predict the voter turnout, and thus assess the accuracy of all the polls out there. Even more humorous are those analysts who are predicting down to the fraction of a seat, with uncertainty bars that run in the tens of seats (you know who you are!).
Pollsters have to rely in historic data to obtain their high confidence levels. But statistics demands that we respect the rogue data point (or in this case rogue year), where we have the exception and not the rule. When I see pollsters going back to the historical record to validate their assumptions and predictions I find it extraordinary these statisticians don’t see all the signs this election is completely breaking from history. There is no precision to fractions of a seat or a few percentage points. And there is no equal distribution either (+/- 5%), given the wind at the GOP’s back.
As I noted yesterday, the real question is who is fired up to vote? And I have a sense that it is the independents that will be making the big wave this cycle. Typically one side is fired up and the independents tilt one way. But this year the grass roots Tea Party (which has been a co opted to some degree by conservatives) sprung out of the center-right region of the electorate. Fiscally conservative (low spending, low taxes) with a libertarian streak (limited government) that has a heavy dose of pro-military sense (strong defense, win the wars), these people were the ones who came out to the 2009 Tea Party rallies (I attended one in person in DC).
While they lean conservative, the Tea Party masses are really the Reagan coalition 30 years later. It is still a very centrist group, pulling in a heavy dose of left of center people who are rejecting the mindless liberal policies (and their subsequent disasters) forced through by Reid, Pelosi and Obama. I think the GOP has an edge over the Dems, but I think the thrust will come from a surge in independents.
Gallup released its third installment of its generic ballot results with two likely voter models (click to enlarge).
The numbers are still staggering. In a good GOP year they typically tie the Dems. This year they are running between 11-17% ahead. Even with ‘registered voters‘ the GOP is by 5%! Unlike past years, the huge gap favoring the GOP is still holding (the last link shows how the GOP faded coming down the stretch – except in 2006, where it was the Dems who did the fading).
I don’t think the independents are going to drop off or change their minds this year. I think this election cycle was baked in with September’s unemployment numbers, and it turned to concrete when we learned Obama has added $3 trillion dollars to our national debt in two short years.
I have been on the lookout for independent data confirming my suspicion this wave is coming out of the independents. In Florida I discovered this little blurb comparing the 2008 and 2010 voter mix:
According to the Associated Press, Florida voter registration is down slightly from two years ago, but the ranks of independent voters have grown since then. Figures released by the Division of Elections on Monday show Florida has 11,217,384 voters registered for the Nov. 2 election. That’s 20,250 fewer than in 2008.
Of the total, 2,186,246 registered without party affiliation. That is 83,127 more than in 2008.
Both major parties lost registration, but Democrats still top Republicans by about 4.6 million to 4 million.
This is exactly the phenomena I detected in Elk County, NV and their absentee ballot numbers. There the Dem absentee vote numbers grew 7% and the GOP 11% since 2008. But the independents grew by 24%! Here in FL the Dems and GOP both lost ground in number of registered voters, only the independents grew. Using the rough numbers above for FL it shows independents grew roughly 4%, and would represent 20% of the voter pool. That kind of voter registration surge is an indication if serious intent to vote come November 2nd.
And it is also clear independents are going for the GOP by +20% in nearly all generic ballot polls out. Either way, the Dems are going to be swamped by the GOP and Independent voters – not to mention the unknown number of Democrats who will be defecting in the voting booth.
the thing that bothers me about the generic polls is that, for the predicted effect to occur, the distribution has to be pretty homogeneous. And yet there’s no reason to believe that it is. For example, Texas and surrounding areas can be *overwhelmingly* pro-GOP, and yet California can still go far left, even with these generic numbers.
California may have to fail completely before it sees a turnaround, and I do not know how that will play out.
meanwhile, by way of Patterico:
“Jaw-Dropping Statistic of the Day…
More than half of the jobs created in the last year… were created in Texas alone.
Yes, really.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 214,000 net new jobs were created in the United States from August 2009 to August 2010. Texas created 119,000 jobs during the same period. If every state in the country had performed as well, we’d have created about 1.5 million jobs nationally during the past year[.]”
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/249868/texas-model-rich-lowry
“During the past 12 months, California nearly canceled out Texas’s job creation all by itself, losing 112,000 net jobs. Its unemployment rate is above 12 percent.”
I am gladdened to see the change of heart by independents, and I hope this marks a permanent shift. However, it is doubtful, and doubtful that the final numbers will be as sweeping as is being predicted all over conservative blogs etc.
Additionally I respectfully disagree that the Tea Party is a primarily a “centrist movement” born and breed from the “center”. The spirit and passion of this kind of thinking and has long existed on the “right.”
Conservatives, fiscal and cultural, for years now, since Regan, have felt abandoned by the GOP. We voted for “Bush I “because we were in hopes he would carry on the Regan revolution, Big Government Bush I failed his “no new tax pledge”, and many conservatives left him to stand alone at the 1992 polls. We endured 8 years of Clinton in part, because the Grand old elete GOP kept fielding lame candidates, because it was their “turn.”
With the failure of Big Government Bush II to reign in spending and control our national borders (not only failing but promoting the invasion) two expensive unnecessary nation building adventures, and conservatives boiled over. Millions stayed home in 2006 congressional elections and the GOP got wacked. We had voted for Bush, yes, in hopes he would not be like daddy so much. It was the choice given. The lesser of two evils. We were supporting the party but felt more and more estranged.
Then in 2008 the GOP fielded another horse “because it was his turn”. Mr. Moderate Centrist Reach Across the aisle Dream Boy “John Bob Mc-Dole” But the “center” was not buying it, they could have had the “ideal centrist”, but instead they chose the Marxist.
When Obama was elected, before he was elected!!!, conservatives, far right, cultural conservatives however you want to label us, we were already “there” we knew what this man was, and what he would do. However the “left” and the “center” were in a state of fanasy over the silver tounged wunder-child.
History was repeating itself, as Germany was swooned and ultimately led into desolation by a gifted speaker, American was falling for the same.
All we on the “right” could do was hope for the best and rally what we could. But many like myself felt like we were living a horrible scene from Dr. Zhivago, waiting for the Bolchavicks to come to our homes and tell us what we could have. ( And I did not even have Julie Christie to console me!) Well they came! and told us we could have Porkulus and Obamacare and that was the start, they rob our savings with new taxes and hidden taxation called inflation, by printing more money.
It took porkulus, obamacare…….trillions to get the “center” to wake up. The “Right” did not have to co-opt the position, Hell Man, we were there already! With all due respect A.J. If the center “joined the party” they are late comers!
However, I will agree with you that the Tea Party focus is not about social issues but issues of finance.
Excellent comment, oneal lane. I would be less harsh on Dubya but I understand where you’re coming from.
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