Oct 20 2010

GOP Blow Out In Enthusiasm

Published by at 3:21 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

We are getting actual data now due to early voting, and it shows a GOP enthusiasm blow out when compared to either proportions of voter registration rolls or proportions of votes in previous elections. The first indication we have of an enormous wave is in PA, where Politico is reporting early voting is swinging heavily towards the GOP:

As of last Friday, 171,860 Republicans had asked for ballots, compared with 155,440 Democrats, giving the GOP a 49 percent to 41 percent lead. Republicans held a 56 percent to 37 percent lead among the close to 66,000 who have already voted.

While historically more Republicans than Democrats vote absentee, Toomey’s campaign is heartened by the early gap.

“It’s beyond anything we’ve historically seen in Pennsylvania. That’s a net 19-point move from the Democratic registration advantage,” said Toomey campaign manager Mark Harris, pointing to the Democrats’ 11-point party registration advantage.

Remember, these are not ‘likely voters’ they are actual voters. The latest PA voter registration data shows the Dem with 51% and the GOP 37%. The early voting numbers are completely flipped from a -14% for the GOP in registration to a +19% in votes! If we look at the exit polls from the last few election in PA we see the Dems have been +7 (2008), +4 (2006) and +2 (2004). Never have they been -19%! Will this gap stay at -19%? I doubt it. But the enthusiasm in PA is quite apparent and strong so far.

Secondly, I noted a very nice website for North Carolina this morning, and began to monitor its early voting tallies by party (click to enlarge):

As can be seen the GOP is running about 7-8% above its registration levels. The Dems are holding at their registration levels. Since the GOP supports their candidate at much higher levels than independents do, this is bad news for all Dems in the state. I will continue to track the vote tallies by party and compare it to the voter registration proportions. I will be updating this chart to keep a running pulse on this election.

Now moving to polls instead of votes we get this national data from the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which looks as bad or worse than the latest Gallup generic ballot models:

The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll came out this morning, and there’s no sugar-coating it: The poll has some very grim results for Democrats. In the 92 most competitive House districts, the GOP’s lead among registered voters is 14 points.

But what may be even worse are the numbers that show how bad the “enthusiasm gap” remains, with less than two weeks until election day.

NBC sends over a partisan breakdown of the two questions designed to measure voter enthusiasm, and the results are striking: The GOP leads Dems by at least 20 points on both of them.

Then there is this stunning poll from NY-22, a D+6 district, via Jim Geraghty:

Maurice Hinchey …………………………………………………………… 43.2%

George Phillips ……………………………………………………………… 43.2%

A while back I estimated this year’s political tsunami could reach as high as D+6, and if it did the Dems would lose over 70 seats. Seems this is not wild speculation.

9 responses so far

9 Responses to “GOP Blow Out In Enthusiasm”

  1. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Free To Prosper, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: GOP Blow Out In Enthusiasm: http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/14922 [...]

  2. WWS says:

    The one thing to be cautious about is that the most enthusiastic voters can be expected to vote early. That is important, but the mix may be more balanced by the time the election comes around.
    (the enthusiasts already having cast their ballots)

    The real question: are a truly large number of voters enthused, or is it a relatively small but vocal segment? In about 14 days, we’ll be able to answer that exactly. Til then we can only hope.

  3. The one thing about a huge R lead in early voting is that it gives the Leftists approximate numbers they need to win before the election is over.

    Unenthusiastic voters can still be brought in by a Dem GOTV machine.

    However, this won’t save Democratic Senators and Congressmen is places without large numbers of Hispanics, Blacks and Gentry Liberals to GOTV in the first place.

  4. WWS says:

    sorry I couldn’t go see him – but here’s who was in my backyard this evening:

    http://www.tylerpaper.com/article/20101020/NEWS08/101029998

  5. crosspatch says:

    How many of these races are still within “cheating” range? Here in California, someone’s home could be the “address” of 20 different people registered to vote. In order to vote by mail, one needs only to vote once in person. If we have several elections from time to time including special elections, you could “vet” each of those registrations once in a fairly short period of time. Once each “voter” has appeared at the poll once, they can become “permanent” vote by mail voters.

    Democrats cheat. They get dead people to the polls in droves. They falsify registrations. They vote multiple times. They “find” ballots in the backseat of their cars. Republicans are going to have to win by a margin that places them outside of cheating range of the Democrats.

  6. AJStrata says:

    Lots of hand wringing going on here. Look, the PA data shows an absentee ballot wipe out (a swing of 33% to the GOP over registration). What you need to take from this is ‘registered’ voter polls mean nothing. Enthusiasm is the key to this (its sometimes also called turning out the base, GOTV, etc). Even if that ridiculous lead shrinks when the real voting takes over, it will not flip back to the Dems. It is not Dems who win elections – it is independents. And they are 20+% on the GOP side. There is no scenario where the Dems see a +7% lead by November 2nd – which is what they need to meet the expectation of the PPP poll turnout model.

    The flip side is also true here. If it looks like the Dems could win PA, a lot of lefty moderates will stay home and say “let those clowns save themselves – if they can’. Being unpopular cannot be corrected by GOTV.

  7. AJ,

    History says you are wrong not to worry.

    In 2008 there were more Democratic party votes out of Philadelphia than there were adults.

    We have Senator Al Frankin of Minnesota and Dino Rossi not being governor of Washington state thanks to voting fraud.

    That is the level of voting fraud Democrats are dealing with now.

    The issue Democrats have with this is that it works at state wide level more than House district level due to the inability to export urban inner city voting fraud to rural and exurban House districts.

  8. Mike M. says:

    AJ, Trent:

    You’ve both got valid points – and it doesn’t matter. The goal is not to win, but to annihilate. To deliver a thrashing so epic that the next politician to even think of emulating Obama’s agenda is thrown out by his OWN party…before he drags the rest of them into the political black hole that consumed the Democrats in 2010.

    Which means that we need to get our own vote out, and be wary for every effort the Dems will make to steal the election.