Oct 19 2010

PPP’s Whacky PA Senate Poll

Published by at 12:10 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Lot’s of head shaking going on with PPP’s ‘unique’ senate poll in PA. PPP has Sestak jumping to a one point lead over Toomey, after months of trailing. However, Jim Geraghty noted a very strange turnout model in the late PPP poll, with Dems out performing their 2008 turnout by a whopping 4%! In 2008 the exit polls showed D-44, R-37 and I-18. PPP thinks it sees 2010 being D-48, R-41 and I-11

In this year’s PA absentee ballot requests, however, the ACTUAL numbers are D-41, R-49 and I-10. It would seem the absentee ballot request numbers tell a different potential outcome. Very different.

19 responses so far

19 Responses to “PPP’s Whacky PA Senate Poll”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    I caught a blurb on Fox News about early voting turnout records. I just walked by the TV. Can anyone expand this? Also, Huffington Post is reporting high Democratic vote turnout in Ohio and Iowa. True or not?

  2. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by AJ Strata, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: PPP poll: Dems oversampled, check absentee ballot requests for proof: http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/14903 [...]

  3. crosspatch says:

    How does this year’s absentee requests compare to 2006?

  4. crosspatch says:

    Early voting turnout models probably aren’t going to mean much IF a lot of people who haven’t voted before decide to vote this year. In California, for example, if you registered this year, you can not vote by mail this year (in California you can be a “permanent” vote by mail voter which means you can keep “voting” long after you are dead or vote as many ballots as arrive in your mailbox).

    I hear stories of people voting this year who haven’t voted in years.

    I would look at 2010 voter registrations to get an idea of what is likely to happen on election day.

  5. kathie says:

    Just a little aside. All is well in the Middle East, Obama has turned his back on Iraq, Sadr is worming his way into a position in the new Parliament joining Malike. And Mitchell is negotiating our way out of Afghanistan with the Iranians. Chavez is visiting Iran for the 9th time in a few years and China is putting on the no buy list precious metals that we need to build all kinds of specialized things. How is it going Mr. Obama? I’m thinking we need to elect some serious people, our world is getting more complicated by our weakness.

  6. MarkN says:

    Well the storyline polling continues. These polls are done to move public opinion not to reflect it.

    The memo from the DPO media went out on Oct 1st of the democratic surge/comeback in 2010 and most pollsters got the memo, PPP, Survey USA, other liberal polling firms and colleges, even RAS and Fox got the memo.

    The memo to Gallup got lost in the mail.

  7. kathie says:

    SCRATCH Mitchell, replace him with Hollbruck or how ever you spell his name.

  8. WWS says:

    No head shaking necessary – just acknowledgment that PPP has now let the mask slip, and should no longer be considered a serious polling organization. Just another liberal campaign outlet using wishcasting to try and impact the news cycle.

  9. WWS says:

    btw, PPP is the polling outfit for Daily Kos. ‘Nuff said.

  10. [...] Dems out are not responding to pollsters. Or it could be biased turnout models as we may have seen in the recent PA Senate poll by PPP (though, be careful here – PPP accurately picked up the Murkowski and O’Donnell upsets [...]

  11. Redteam says:

    Thanks WWS:
    “just acknowledgment that PPP has now let the mask slip, and should no longer be considered a serious polling organization.”

    Some polling organizations, as are the MSM, are in the tank for the Progressives. They have an agenda: Get progressives elected, so be aware that many polls are slanted as necessary and then the results are reported, as necessary, to accomplish their goals.

    I am wary of ‘early voting’ because I’m afraid some votes may get lost and some votes may be found, again as necessary, to get progressives elected. Too many dead people voting……

  12. Everything between now and the end of the post-election recounts is pure fog, spin and lies.

    Get out there and early vote.

    Take your friend and family to vote early.

    Then poll watch and GOTV the day of the election.

    The rest will take care of itself.

  13. Quite Rightly says:

    “It would seem the absentee ballot request numbers tell a different potential outcome. Very different.”

    Yes, but let’s not forget about all those names chiseled on tombstones.

  14. Frogg1 says:

    GOP Has Absentee Ballot Advantage In Pennsylvania
    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/gop-has-absentee-ballot-advant.html

    excerpt:

    Pennsylvania voters requested nearly 127,000 absentee ballots so far. Of that total, Republican voters made up for 50 percent and Democrats made up for 42 percent, according to figures collected Tuesday afternoon.

    Democrats, meanwhile, note that absentee ballot totals have favored Republicans in each of the last two cycles, although the edge (less than 1 point and 4 points in 2006 and 2008 respectively) was smaller than it appears to be this year.

  15. Frogg1 says:

    Ground War More Intense Than 2006, Early Voting More Prevalent
    Democrats Stirring But Are No Match for Energized Republicans
    http://people-press.org/report/666/

    excerpts:

    …..Consequently, a considerably greater percentage of Republicans than Democrats still fall into the likely voter category. Moreover, the new survey shows that Democrats have lost ground among all voters: Currently, 46% of registered voters favor the Republican candidate in their district or lean Republican, while 42% favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic.

    ….When the current survey is narrowed to those most likely to vote, the GOP holds a double-digit advantage – 50% to 40%.

  16. Frogg1 says:

    Bad news in PA though with a couple more polls showing Sestak closing Toomey’s lead, and RCP now putting PA into the toss up category (say it isn’t so):

    Toomey’s Lead Collapses in Pennsylvania http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/21/toomeys_lead_collapses_in_pennsylvania.html

    A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows the U.S. Senate race is now a statistical dead heat with Pat Toomey (R) barely edging Rep. Joe Sestak (D) among likely voters, 48% to 46%.

    Said pollster Peter Brown: “Pennsylvania is a blue state and Democrats there have begun to come home. They are more engaged than they were earlier in the race. This is not unusual, especially in off-year elections. Democrats often engage later in the campaign than do Republicans. The political environment is more favorable now for them, as evidenced by President Obama’s improved, but still decidedly negative, job approval rating.”

    The latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg tracking poll shows Sestak and Toomey tied at 43% each.

  17. Frogg1 says:

    This CBS article lists some of the states (and localities) where Dem early voting is heavy:

    Strong Turnout for Democrats in Early Voting
    1st Figures on Early Balloting Show GOP Gains on 2008 Numbers, But Democrats Hold Edge in Some Key States
    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/21/politics/main6977597.shtml

  18. AJStrata says:

    Frogg1,

    I will be posting on this later, but the CBS data is not quite right. They say the Dems lead in NC, but there are more Dems in NC than GOP. The Dems are voting at their registered voter level (44%), but the GOP is voting 7-8% above theirs (38%). Technically they Dems have more votes, but the GOP has a clear enthusiasm gap. That means the turnout model is heavily GOP. And who knows which party the vote actually goes to!

  19. Neo says:

    You don’t need to be a weatherman to see that Anthropogenic Climate Change is coming to DC on Election night.