Oct 20 2010
Boxer In Trouble, Survey USA Has Turnout Issues
A new Survey USA poll out shows long term incumbent Boxer in serious trouble. Even in a normal year any incumbent polling below 50% is in trouble, and when polling near or below 45% is typically not going to pull it out (because 55% of the voters have already decided to not vote for the incumbent, they are deciding whether to vote for the challenger, or some small party candidate, or sit home).
Boxer is at 46%, her GOP opponent Fiorina is at 44%. For those who already voted the numbers are Boxer 45%, Fiorina 43%. Is this a done deal then? Possibly, since the GOP voter is much more enthused to get out and vote this cycle. But there is another indicator which looks like deep trouble for Boxer: Independents. These folks are voting for Fiorina 50-35%, and that is a huge difference. The Dems are voting 82-11 for Boxer, the GOP 81-11 for Fiorina, so the result will be based on turnout. But with the Dems fighting both the GOP and the Independents.
And here is the rub. The Survey USA poll has the party mix R-35%, D-42% and Ind-21% (total 98). The latest registration numbers for CA are R-31%, D-44%, Ind-25% (total 99). How is it the GOP and Indies account for 56% 77% of the polled voters and are heavy for Fiorina and still lose to the Dems who are performing 2% below their registration levels??? Something is just not adding up here. [never perform addition on less than one cup of coffee]
AJ USA poll R-35% Ind-21% =56% ….NOT 77%.
That plus the registered voter numbers don’t look so good hope turnout can bring this one home looks like the D have the edge!
Thanks dhunter! Too early to be adding in my head.
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Free To Prosper, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: Weird turn out models in polls, Boxer still In trouble: http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/14914 […]
Folks, it’s not going to turn out like your thinking.
Even if the GOP regains control, they will spit in your face because they think Tea Party people are ignorant rednecks.
The GOP “top order” has no plan or desire to repeal Obamacare. They have no will to fight. They really don’t understand whats going on in the country. They are thinking, “come November we will be back in back to business as usuall”
This coming election is to wipe out Democrats, the coming 2012 election will need to replace old line GOP.
Do not get your hopes too high up!
oneal, give it a rest. You know how tiresome it is to hear nothing will work constantly? geez.
I think the goal is to establish a gridlock between 2010 and 2012 until Obama is out of the WH and replacing the old line GOP and those dang donors in 2012.
Well, at least, I thought so. And this may lead to an establishment of a third party.
“The GOP top order has no plan or desire to repeal Obamacare. They have no will to fight. They really dont understand whats going on in the country. They are thinking, come November we will be back in back to business as usual.”
Post-election, it will be up to “we the people” to keep the pressure on Congress to carry out the policies we want (i.e. fiscal sanity, repeal of Obamacare, no cap and tax or other tax increases, etc.). But we won’t get anywhere unless the GOP actually gets control of Congress. And we simply can’t wait much longer…
And – please – be realistic. You can fight tooth and nail to repeal Obamacare, but at this point how are you going to repeal anything unless you can override a presidential veto? The only way is to affect the funding of specific parts of the law and to enact waivers. Other than that, we’ll have to see if the legal challenges being mounted go anywhere.
AJ,
FYI, you are still having front page refresh weirdness.
I think the three top issues in this election are:
1. Jobs
2. Jobs
3. Jobs
Did I mention jobs. And the economy has hit men worse than women. In my precinct here in CA, I’m seeing ind (DTS in CA) men who are unemployed or underemployed and do not usually vote have the time on their hands to go out and vote. And they are by mail.
I would say the turn out in CA will be 39-25-26. The pollsters are not as of yet picking up the ind men and their stronger than usual turnout in 2010.
AJ,
Many voted for Obama in an unrealistic “magical thinking” mindset that he, the savior, was going to fix the world. Now many of the same people are disillusioned.
Now, on the right-center right axis we have an overly exuberant expectation of the fall elections and what the GOP will and can do. Lets us not fall victim of the same type magical thinking. It’s not going to be magical small government, debt free happy land after the election.
I am not saying nothing will work, only “work” is the operative word. The current disaster and previous disasters both Democrat and Republican will take more work, voting pressure etc to repair.
Polls generally tighten as election draws near.
Thanks with putting up with me.
My friends in California ntell me Carly is running an aggressive, disciplined campaign that’s surging–or rather resurging–at the right time. Babs doesn’t really motivate people, and Republicans seem to be doing well in early voting. All of those seem to indicate Carly may be in a good position to win. Oneal go suck your thumb in a corner. No political party is perfect, but to doom and say the GOP is destined to make no changes if elected–especially at this critical juncture–is just counterproductive.
Jay,
Given the recent history of the GOP, well Jay, we shall see how willing they are to confront the Democrats, and how much pressure it will require.
I want the same things as you want, defeat of the left and their agenda, but after watching the Republicans kow-tow and cater to the left for the past two decades find it difficult to believe that change in Washington GOP will be easy. Remember the pressure is coming from “Tea Party” and like minded folk, and not the GOP. The GOP is borrowing the power, getting it on loan, for this election cycle. If they fail they will loose that support.
Additionally, I have no desire to suck on any of my fingers, and because you may disagree with my analysis is no cause say such things. How productive is that? This election is just the beginning. There will be much work to do to secure restoration of the Republic.
This Fox News clip with Hannity and Dement speaks to the problems with the establishment GOP, who will be part of the post election problem.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4380812/will-midterms-remake-the-republican-party
I am excited about what is happening, and what we can accomplish, but I am also a realist. One must guard against the myopia of wishful thinking.