Oct 28 2010
AJStrata’s House & Senate Predictions
I have put this off long enough, it is time to put out my predictions for Tuesday’s election. Sadly, my being burned in 2006 and 2008 by underestimating the anger of middle America with the GOP left me vowing to avoid making predictions in elections. That vow was never going to last. Actually, in 2008 I knew it was a lost cause well before election day, but decided not to dampen any enthusiasm by admitting McCain-Palin were not going to win. Both rounds were ‘teachable’ moments.
Since then I have tried to be objective and brutally honest. So here I go, without hesitation and fully aware that the middle America voters are not voting for the ‘true conservatives’ this cycle, but voting against rampant liberalism.
The Dems are in trouble because their centrists rolled over and let Obama, Reid and Pelosi run rampant. Obama is in power because middle American voters put him there in the first place – a big mistake everyone now sees. But mistakes can be fixed, and the voters are hell bent to fix their last one come Tuesday. (Point of order – I supported McCain-Palin in 2008).
I am not going to try and nail the most likely outcome to the fraction of a seat (like a Nate Silver does). That is a waste of time and not how to deal with this election. There is no precedent to this year, therefore historical trends are blinders on pollsters and statistical models this cycle – not a source of insight. This is that 1% case the stats know is out there, but cannot model. Gallup has been one of the few organizations willing to really let the data tell the story as it is:
Gallup’s latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year’s congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.
But even Gallup still assumes that party voters are monolithic and tied to party and not to something larger (like country). It is their Achilles Heel. While the middle America voters are rejecting the Democrats, they are not embracing conservatism (which they threw out of power in 2006 and 2008). This means people see this as a rejection of the Democrat leaders – which opens a lot of people to vote differently. Fiscal conservatism (a.k.a. a libertarian streak) is back in vogue because just about everyone agrees the federal government is way too intrusive and way too incompetent and corrupt. The liberal experiment of the last two years was an unmitigated disaster and forced everyone outside the far left to conclude big government is wrong and needs to be stopped – now. We understand that we need to rely on the American people and their strength, honor and diversity to lead this nation – not brain dead bureaucrats struggling to be God’s gift to humanity. The common ground from center left to far right is the feel we have a libertarian emergency.
Just as we banded together after 9-11 in common cause, we are forging a force to roll back government and return power to the people and the states. This transcends party lines, just as the core of the Tea Party does.
There are signs all over the place this race is going to be a wipe out. Predictions from nearly every objective corner see Dems losing 50 seats – or more. I put the number of Dem House seats lost in the 70-80 seat range. And with that large a wave, the Senate will go to the GOP too. The GOP will pick up WV, WA, and CA, along with PA, CO, NV, IL, IN, AR, ND and WI. That will be the easy part. I would not be surprised to see CT and DE added to the list – the anger with the left is so intense out there.
The reason this will be such a huge wipe out is because of three factors, two of which are well known:
(1) There is an ‘enthusiasm gap’ of enormous proportions out there. The GOP has never had such a wave of support in living memory. Yes, the GOP is energized to vote this year, and the Democrats are not. But that is only part of the wave.
(2) The voters are rejecting the liberals in the Democrat leadership, and this rejection includes independents and centrists. All pollsters show the party faithful being faithful – and voting 9 to 1 for their party’s candidates. This happens every year pretty much. What is different this year (and in all wave election years) is the center has decided to tilt heavily to one side. The GOP is holding a +20% lead with independents this cycle, which is why there are so many races in play. This is the second part of the wave.
(3) The final piece of the wave is Democrat defections. This is not being folded into the polling very well. I think most center-left Democrats are angry with their party for being so hyper-partisan and screwing up so badly that they are playfully telling pollsters they will vote D – when in reality they have no intention to. The center-left is as angry as everyone else, maybe even more so. They see their party becoming some alien monster right before their eyes. They are the true believers who were crushed when Obama turned out to be just another forked tongue, liberal politician. The Clinton and DLC wing of the Democrat party are going to send a huge message – and they are the ones who will be joining the center and making this historic.
It takes all three elements to create a super wave: enthused GOP voters, independents moving en mass to the GOP and center-left Dems defecting in droves. I think the nation is so fed up with our lousy economy and endless deficits they know there is only one answer, and that is to neuter the DC liberals and tie down Barack Obama’s ego. The center and center-left may have finally agreed to the libertarian element of conservatism – and that is a great thing to have happen. It is not a mandate for conservatives, it is an opportunity to join hands as Americans, vote the Dems out and start rolling back Big Government, and the Political Industrial Complex.
And that is why this election is one for the century.
Update: Weekly Standard article noting another way pollsters could be wrong.
Whippet1,
Get a clue for once. I supported McCain-Palin, and would be more than happy to oppose the far right any and every time. The far right was shown the door in 2006 and 2008 for doing the same thing Obama did – over reach, back busy-body government and spend like madmen (remember, Bush proposed good budgets, the conservative congress went into debt).
It was the far right who back-stabbed Bush, and then sat home pouting while Obama beat McCain. Trust those of us with good memories, we remember the wisdom of the far right and how it played out in 2006 and 2008. All those ‘true conservatives’ in exile!
Whippet1,
It is attitudes like yours that cause the Independents to flip-flop. The far right scares them away with all their purity crap. We need to accept people who may have differing opinions than our own. There is never going to be a party where every one believes 100% in what everyone else in the group believes in.
Unlike my dad, I have classified myself as a Republican. But there are some issues where I am in line a little more with the liberals. Thats my choice. But overall I will support GOP candidates more often then Dems, because their platform is more in line with mine.
To keep the Independents we need to open our minds to differing opinions. If the GOP has more moderate candidates and can keep the far right in exile there isn’t a need for the pendulum to swing so far each election cycle. But we ALL have to work at it.
Realclearpolitics already has the Republicans picking up 44 seats before the 40 toss-ups are decided. If this wave is as big as its seems 100 seat pick up is amazingly realistic. And they have the Senate split 51-49 with states being placed where there is a statistical tie in the polls. My experience in politics, the GOP always gets a slightly higher percentage than shown in the pre-election polls. Which means its a horrible idea to expect a state with a tie to go Democrat.
I think the Tea Party movement is really an extension of the same spirit that elected Obama in 2008. Now we will forever second guess Obama voters for being gullible enough to believe his lies, but look at what he promised – he promised Change, Fiscal Discipline, and Honest, Open Government. That’s what a majority wanted, and still wants. The reason Obama’s support has fallen so precipitously is easy to explain – it’s now been demonstrated to everyone (except the East Coast Nomenklatura) that these promises were all baldfaced lies.
But what is the Tea Party after, really? Change, Fiscal Discipline, and Honest, Open Government! There’s no denying that the GOP blew it over the years they were in power – although we can debate as to just who’s fault it was personally, results are all that count, and results are what voters base their decisions on. Did the GOP show fiscal discipline? No, they did not, and they lost the public’s trust on what should have been their strongest suit because of that. Even now, people aren’t voting *for* the GOP as much as they are voting *against* the Democrats. All Republican officeholders have to remember this constantly for the next two years. They *lost* the country’s trust – they now have to earn that trust back. This election is a chance to regain it , but nothing more. And any action that is not directly related to saving this economy and getting jobs growing again is going to be a useless distraction.
Results are how Voters are going to rate anyone who wins in this election – we’re in an age where rhetoric, either from the left or the right, isn’t going to matter or win elections anymore. Results are all that will count – which in my mind is how is always should have been.
AJ & DJ,
Birds of a feather flock together…
Ahhh, yes, all you lovely mooodddderrrrates.
What exactly does that mean to you? Anti-Dem and Anti-Rep is basically it.
So easy to blame flip-flopping on one side or the other, when what it is is your own party backstabbing. Anyone with core beliefs doesn’t flip from a Reagan to an Obama or a Clinton for that matter. Oh, I know…you all love to claim Reagan as a moderate. Dream on.
I know you finally settled for McCain-Palin. Surprise surprise! McCain is the king of flip-flop. You see it as someone who wants to work with the other side when what he really is is someone who wants the limelight. No core…..just what gets him attention. And of course you see Palin as a moderate. Your hatred for conservatives allows you to make justifications with no basic in fact.
But I’ll take it since those justifications might cause you to vote for a real conservative when you don’t even know it!
Moderates are the ones who began chipping away, little by little, decade after decade at the very priciples that this country was founded on. When you give an inch the left runs away with it and we’re left where we are today.
As a Conservative, I never back-stabbed Bush and neither did many other conservatives. Oh, I know, you generalize and lump us all together but that’s what moderates do to justify their position. I will always love the man and think he will go down in history as a great President. I didn’t agree with all he did but most was enough for me. And I don’t have to rationalize him into something he wasn’t in order to accept him.
You are what you condemn. It’s ok for you to be a “true” moderate but you whine about the “true” conservatives and rabid left. I respect someone willing to say they are a Marxist for admitting what they are. At least they stand for something, odious as it is.
What exactly is it that you stand for that isn’t conservative, AJ? How far are you willing to compromise on the things that matter to you most? And why is someone else slapped with a label when they aren’t willing to compromise on the things that matter to them most? Rather hypocritical, don’t you think?
Whippet1,
Pretty simple – anti whippet.
Simple is right.
[…] Again, worse than 1994, by quite a bit. I may have to up my prediction of a 75 house seat pick up by the GOP. […]
[…] Last week I predicted around a 75 house seat pick up for the GOP, along with a 9-11 senate seat win (you can’t win 75 seats in the house and not tip the Senate). I may have underestimated what is coming on November 2nd. […]
Whippet1,
Obviously you didn’t even read my post. I do not consider myself a moderate. So kindly take your own advice and don’t lump people into groups.
And you might want to actually read some articles on this blog about Bush before you start claiming the Stratas are anti-Bush.
Very few people think of Palin as a moderate. She is able to relate to the American people. That is what makes her such a strong candidate. She is real and understands what the average American has to deal with. So once again, read before you speak.