Nov 01 2010

The Tsunami Indicators For Election Night

Published by at 7:26 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

There are tons of individual races which can be indicators of how the election will play out – but there is one state (mine of course) which will measure the level of the wave right after the polls close at 7 PM Eastern. These results may be earlier than most other states and will be a quick gauge for the rest of the evening. This is because the VA Democrat Congressman will fall based on the height of the GOP wave. Right now VA has a mix of 6 Democrats and 5 Republican Congress Critters:

    R-VA1: Rep. Wittman
    D-VA2: Rep. Nye
    D-VA3: Rep. Scott
    R-VA4: Rep. Forbes
    D-VA5: Rep. Perriello
    R-VA6: Rep. Goodlatte
    R-VA7: Rep. Cantor
    D-VA8: Rep. Moran
    D-VA9: Rep. Boucher
    R-VA10: Rep. Wolf
    D-VA11: Rep. Connolly

No GOP candidates are at risk this cycle.

In a normal mid-term realignment I could see the GOP leaning districts (PIV of R+5) going back to the GOP. So if VA2 and VA5 go back to the GOP, and they are the only ones to go GOP, then the Dems have a chance to keep the House. This is just returning to the typical VA balance.

If the normally safe Rep Boucher in VA9 (R+11) loses, this would indicate a range where the GOP takes 45-55 seats. At this point control of the Senate is in play, but either side could win.

If we also see VA11 (D+2) go to the GOP, then we are firmly in the 60-70 seat pick up range. I believe that when you get to this point the Senate tips to the GOP simply because the sum of the house races have to impact the state-wide races.

If we see VA8 go to the GOP, we are in uncharted territory and the Dems are looking at a devastating Tuesday – where long shot senate races (DE & CT for example) go into the GOP column and we discuss this election for years to come.

I think we will see 4 of the VA dems lose (VA2, VA5, VA9 & VA11) tomorrow – this is one big wave. If Jim Moran also loses in VA8, then you can bet there will be a lot of surprise losses all night long. It would also leave only one Democrat left standing in the state of VA house caucus. And a message will have been sent, loud and clear.

11 responses so far

11 Responses to “The Tsunami Indicators For Election Night”

  1. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by AJ Strata, Free To Prosper. Free To Prosper said: The Tsunami Indicators For Election Night http://bit.ly/b0Nira :: Strata-sphere [...]

  2. Fai Mao says:

    I’m going to still say the dems lose closer 105 seats than they do 55. Way closer to 105.

  3. [...] – 65/9 Sister Toldjah – 40-45/5 AJ – Says look to VA Polipundit – 66/ Peter Wehner – 73/10 Paul Mirengoff – [...]

  4. MerlinOS2 says:

    I see one thing that goes against the dems in a potentially lasting way.

    The senior vote is being driven partly by what has been done to the health care system. For so many elections the Dems have demonized the Republicans for what they would do to social security.

    In fact the health care bill by the Dems is doing more damage to them they they ever proposed it would to the senior from the Repub side.

    This is one of the larger consistent voting blocks in the midterms historically and can be decisive in the outcome.

  5. [...] – 65/9 Sister Toldjah – 40-45/5 AJ – Says look to VA Polipundit – 66/ Peter Wehner – 73/10 Paul Mirengoff – [...]

  6. [...] – 65/9 Sister Toldjah – 40-45/5 AJ – Says look to VA Polipundit – 66/ Peter Wehner – 73/10 Paul Mirengoff – [...]

  7. archtop says:

    Ahhhh….just voted…straight GOP…felt good…let’s roll!

  8. dhunter says:

    Just voted straight R and against ALL the judges! Turnout in my small IA town same as or a little more than 2008.
    (I was #70, 50 minutes into voting).

    In 2008 I was #75 at the 1 hr. 15 minute mark!

    Thats’ a lot for a midterm!

  9. DJStrata says:

    Voted this morning…now its just a waiting game. We had over 250 people in the first 2 hours. I don’t even think it was that high in 2008 by that time.

    I hope to see VA2 return to GOP control. It never should have been lost in the first place.

  10. del says:

    We voted early. Over 30% did so in NM. Being optimistic I go for 80/11 with all 3 NM house seats switching.

  11. [...] am watching the VA congressional races to measure the size of the wave, and now I have an eye on VA3 – the one race I never thought [...]