Nov 02 2010

And So It Begins – Or Ends: Election Night Thread

Published by at 4:56 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

12:10 AM Eastern: Reid wins, and this puts a huge shadow over the Tea Party, and the risk if going too far from the center. Leaving Reid in power is an example of cutting of the nose to spite the face. Now all the other tea party candidates who were strong (Rubio, Johnson, etc) are now not in a position to do much. Need better vetting of tea party candidates and make sure they are balanced. Good night!

12:10 AM Eastern: Kirk wins IL! Keeping an eye on WA, NV, CA and CT

12:10 AM Eastern: VA11 has two machines in Fairfax not working and locked up. Tomorrow will be the final canvas and recount plans. If CA, NV and WA hold then it was not as good as I had hoped. Will contemplate impacts tomorrow – but not much can be done in DC to fix things. Expect extended economic pain.

11:48 PM Eastern: GOP just won 41 seats, Nancy has been retired.

11:47 PM Eastern: Attempting to put comments back on – if it gets bad will have to turn them off again.

11:42 PM Eastern: Scratch that and reverse it (late night) Connolly up by 500. Still up to absentee ballots in strong GOP locales. Fimian takes 550 vote lead in VA11 with 100% reporting. Down to absentee ballots in regions heavy GOP. If this holds GOP takes 4 out of 6 dems out in VA!

11:30 PM Eastern: PA Update – Toomey up 126K with 96% reporting, should be called soon for Toomey

11:24 PM Eastern: In IL Kirk is up 59,300 votes with 89% reporting. That looks like a GOP pick up. Toomey looks he is pulling out a tight one. Fox called CA Senate and Gov, CNN did not yet (for good reason). Dino ahead in WA with 20% reporting, and I am still watching CT to see if it was called too soon!

10:53 PM Eastern: Toomey moving moving ahead finally, Kirk moving ahead finally, Feingold finally loses, Spratt gone, Chet Edwards gone. Looking very strong still – and watch CT. May have been called too early.

10:05 PM Eastern: There are tons of races not being called in the east (GA2, GA8) which should start falling soon. And I am still watching the CT Senate race to see if that was called prematurely.

9:37 PM Eastern: OK, I do not see the GOP getting as far as I had hoped, but I am watching some races called by exit polls (specifically CT Senate). I have some issues with polls this year and I am surprised to see races come in higher and lower for the GOP than expected. The key that the wave is not that big is VA11 between Fimian and Connolly. A few hundred votes separate the two. This D+2 CD seems to be the high water mark for Dems. A lot more Dems will be falling in the House, but unless we see something surprising, the Dems could hold the Senate. Unless something big breaks, plan to watch and enjoy the night.

9:00 PM Eastern: VA2 goes to the GOP which means they have picked up 3 seats in VA. So far only 2 Democrats are left standing. It comes VA11 Connelly-Fimian race. Taking out 2/3rds of the Democrats in VA is a huige night for GOP.

8:30 PM Eastern: VA9 was my indicator for a 75 seat win for the GOP. With 79% reporting Griffith is leading 52-36 over Boucher. Surprisingly Moran’s race has not been called yet, which is interesting. Hurt should win VA5 soon. Looking good in House, now for some luck in the senate.

8:03 PM Eastern: Looks like Scott will survive in VA3, but he may be one of 2 Dems left standing.

CNN calling Coons in CT based on exit poll data – may be a risky move. Rubio wins.

7:45 PM Eastern: Amazing data in VA. VA5 Hurt is up by 12% with 28% reporting – this will be called soon and is a GOP take. VA9 Griffith is up 8% with 16% reporting. This is the race I said would indicate 75 seat pick up. The one race I never saw even in play was VA3, with 6% reporting incumbent Scott is down 3%. If this race goes GOP then who knows how big the wave.

7:25 PM Eastern: I am predicting IN2 and IN9 will be called for the GOP soon – superwave coming!

7:20 PM Eastern: It looks like IN and KY are going to have 2-3 Democrat Congressman left standing between the two of them. Looks like IN2 will go to the GOP (trending +25% with 8% of the vote in, when RCP had it +5 D in the final polls). This will be a huge wipe out.

7:00 PM Eastern: Fox Calls first senate race, Dan Coates in IN as the GOP take their first seat. Rand Paul also wins in KY (and early), holding the GOP seat! That was fast for KY.

6:57 PM Eastern: Reminder – exit polls are not final results, and Drudge is not reporting percentages of lead.

6:52 PM Eastern: Drudge adds Rubio to the exit poll winners for GOP (morning & afternoon) and Boxer (morning only only). Not buying the Boxer win yet, but explains why CNN & Dems don’t want to depress west coast dem voters.

Heavy voting in NoVA.

6:47 PM Eastern: NY Times has a great election returns map for The House and The Senate

6:40 PM Eastern: CNN democrats keep trying to claim there is hope in the afternoon exit polls (not likely). Drugde has Kirk (CO) and Paul (KY) well ahead in exit polls. Still awaiting the VA results to see how big this wave is. Be back closer to 7 PM.

6:09 PM Eastern: Wipe out. Drudge has 4 races called already based on exit polls:

Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)

4 Senate seat already! Fox reporting Youth and African American vote way down.

6:03 PM Eastern: Exits: 73% angry or upset with Federal government, 48% want to repeal health care. Not good for the big government dems.

5:55 PM Eastern: I will be adding to this post all night as information comes in. From Jim Geraghty we hear the initial exit polls are horrible.

I am watching the VA congressional races to measure the size of the wave, and now I have an eye on VA3 – the one race I never thought the Dems would lose. If Scott loses in VA3 there may be NO democrat congressman from VA come 2011.

I also cannot help but note CNN’s dark background music for the exit polls. Sounds like a cross between Jaws and the last Batman movie. Are they projecting?

5 Minutes to the first poll closings

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