Nov 02 2010

A Crush Of Anger Hits The Election Booths

Published by at 11:45 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

They call it the ‘enthusiasm’ gap, but there is no enthusiasm behind the wave hitting the election booths across the nation today. It is fear of more liberal havoc, and it has the GOP-Independent alliance coming out in enormous numbers compared to a Democrat base disillusioned and fractured. Gallup’s last broadside of data is just mind boggling:

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

H/T Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. This is a big wave coming. When you combine this GOP-Independent leaner ‘enthusiasm’ gap to the generic ballot gap you begin to get a glimpse of this towering event that is now coming ashore.

I repeat, there are three factors behind this voter backlash. It is a combination of (a) the enthusiasm gap, (b) the shift of independents to the GOP by 20-30% and (c) the yet to be reported defection of Democrats. All polls so far assume Dems will hold 95% of their base. This is just not going to happen under these conditions. This is why I remain bullish on this election and predict a GOP gain of at least 75 house and 10 senate seats. There is no ray of hope in this data for the Dems. None.

5 responses so far

5 Responses to “A Crush Of Anger Hits The Election Booths”

  1. tarpon says:

    Cross fingers, put on life jacket, and wait.

  2. archtop says:

    AJ – If you’re right about the big shift of indies to the GOP and defections of conservative/blue dog Dems —- then say hello to Senators Christine O’Donnell, Carly Fiorina, and Linda McMahon!

  3. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Free To Prosper, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: A Crush Of Anger Hits The Election Booths: http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/15167 [...]

  4. AJStrata says:

    Archtop – absolutely!

  5. MarkN says:

    O’Donnell is a special election, so she would show up for the lame duck session.