Nov 02 2010
They call it the ‘enthusiasm’ gap, but there is no enthusiasm behind the wave hitting the election booths across the nation today. It is fear of more liberal havoc, and it has the GOP-Independent alliance coming out in enormous numbers compared to a Democrat base disillusioned and fractured. Gallup’s last broadside of data is just mind boggling:
The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.
H/T Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. This is a big wave coming. When you combine this GOP-Independent leaner ‘enthusiasm’ gap to the generic ballot gap you begin to get a glimpse of this towering event that is now coming ashore.
I repeat, there are three factors behind this voter backlash. It is a combination of (a) the enthusiasm gap, (b) the shift of independents to the GOP by 20-30% and (c) the yet to be reported defection of Democrats. All polls so far assume Dems will hold 95% of their base. This is just not going to happen under these conditions. This is why I remain bullish on this election and predict a GOP gain of at least 75 house and 10 senate seats. There is no ray of hope in this data for the Dems. None.