Feb 22 2011

The End Of Autocratic Rule In The Muslim/Arab World

Published by at 8:41 am under All General Discussions,Bin Laden/GWOT

As protests ignite across the Muslim/Arab world I can only sit back and marvel at the historic times we live in. While there is a lot of hand wringing left and right, this widening call for freedom is the result expected when the US brought democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan. Once these two country demonstrated years of what democracy means, along with a few cycles of peaceful elections and leadership handover, it appears a tipping point has been reached as one after another of the iron-fisted leaders find their people totally fed up with them:

Two high-ranking Libyan air force pilots have who fled to Malta in their aircraft are reported to have told officials they escaped rather than carry out orders to bomb civilians.

The officers defected as Libyan diplomats in several countries and international organisations resigned in protest at the regime’s violent response to the deepening crisis. They included Muammar Gaddafi’s ambassadors to China, India, Indonesia and Poland, as well as Libya’s representative to the Arab League and most, if not all, of its mission at the United Nations.

Qaddafi made the mistake President Mubarrak avoided – pretending mass killing could save his hold on power. The people of the world cannot be cowed anymore. Yes, to a point they can be persuaded to ignore things, but all that does is build up pressure, so that when the tipping point hits the explosion is all the more powerful.

It is always interesting to see the parallels big and small. Iran is going to feel the largest pressure cooker, being one of the most oppressive with a highly educated and modern civilian base. Even if it holds on, it will turn into some historic derelict like North Korea. But I just don’t see it holding on. In that case too, we will probably witness horrific bloodshed by those desperate to hold onto power.

All of this upheaval and heavy handed response sheds an illuminating light on events in Wisconsin. While the Democrat and union responses are not bloody (yet), they are heavy-handed and desperate. What we see in the Middle East is the price that has to be paid to bring a society back out of the darkness of autocratic, oppressive rule. And it is a heavy price.

Which in turn means it is best to never lose the freedoms of the individual and society to know-it-all bureaucrats and self-proclaimed Messiahs. [I bet Obama is really regretting the over-the-top stage craft of his election now!] If Libya and Egypt and Tunisia tell us anything it is to not let government and its lackey organizations get too much power.

In Wisconsin the left is protesting lack of control over the rest of us, while in the Middle East the people are protesting oppressive and central control of their lives.

Oh the delicious irony of it all.

16 responses so far

16 Responses to “The End Of Autocratic Rule In The Muslim/Arab World”

  1. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Free To Prosper, AJ Strata. AJ Strata said: new: The End Of Autocratic Rule In The Muslim/Arab World http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/15952 [...]

  2. lurker9876 says:

    But those protesting in ME don’t realize that they may be replacing one autocratic government with another autocratic government mainly because they don’t know any better.

    Anyone noticing how Obama’s sorta abdicating his responsibilities as our President?

  3. dbostan says:

    As Qaddafy treats his people as Ceausescu did, in 1989, I think he will also enjoy a Ceausescu style ending.
    Sooner rather than later….

  4. WWS says:

    The Land of Opportunity

    Current events continue to get more and more amazing each day – the consequences of events in this country, such as the showdown in Wisconsin, are dwarfed by the significance of what’s happening internationally. Who could have guessed that after so many years of apparent stability we would see Libya slide into chaos and anarchy overnight? And not just Libya, but governments across the region? As I write, Quaddafi (the man with a hundred spellings of his name) is still swearing to hang onto power or drag his country down into the fiery pit with him, and we don’t know how this will turn out. But after hiring mercenaries to butcher hundreds of his own citizens in the streets, we’re guaranteed that Libya is never going back to Business as Usual.

    This morning I realized that a strange and rare opportunity is suddenly presenting itself in the region. Quaddafi supposedly only has 5,000 military forces left personally loyal to him, with about 45,000 total military in Libya whose loyalties are up for grabs. And yet Libya sits on incredible wealth.

    A single man with just a few loyal military units could easily take control of that country right now, if he were clever enough to play up to the protestors – not hard to do. The Europeans would hand him all the resources he asked for, just to guarantee the security of the oil pipeline. (which they desperately need)

    But it doesn’t end there – Egypt is just as chaotic, except that the Egyptian military is much bigger and more unified. This suggests where the original power base for such a move would start, but Egypt has a military stocked with bureaucrats who mainly interested in fattening their personal bank accounts. That’s why no one at the top currently can command the kind of loyalty that a true leader would, and why no clear successor to Mubarak has yet emerged.

    History suggests that such a man will soon arise.

    Imagine a man who could energize the Egyptian public, who are massively poor and have no jobs, by promising them the wealth of Libya’s oil – which is just sitting there, ripe for the taking. (fyi: Egypt population about 83 million, Libya population about 6 million)

    And it could even be bigger than that – Tunisia is also in chaos, and Algeria for years has been called a “hand grenade in mid-flight”. And what of the riots in Bahrain, and the deep worries in the financial capitals that the Saudis could be next? Situations like this only come up about once every other generation, if that often. These are the kinds of times that bring about a Napoleon or an Alexander… or worse.

    I have never in my life seen all the pieces on the board align like they are aligned right now. Right now *All* of North Africa – maybe even all of the Middle East! – is laid out defenseless and disorganized. It’s like a bright, shining apple just waiting to be devoured. The US won’t interfere, overcommitted already. Europe won’t interfere, too terrified to do anything. China is too far away. Russia is out of the power projection business. All the barriers and players that once would have prevented such a move are suddenly and amazingly… gone. The path is open and clear. All the times need is One Man to seize the Opportunity that lies beckoning.

    I wonder who out there is watching these events, and thinking the same thoughts I am. I suspect that sooner or later we will all find out.

  5. crosspatch says:

    It isn’t yet time to count chickens. Qaddafi isn’t gone yet. Planeloads more mercenaries have been reported arriving at Tripoli airport.

    And the miserable excuse for a President we have in DC still refuses to utter a word on the subject:

    http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0211/be_patient_9b4f2828-cee1-4871-99a0-90e2716af530.html

  6. dbostan says:

    Obama is weakening our allies and coddling to our enemies.
    Do we need more proof his policies are solely geared toward weakening/defeating America?
    Don’t think so…

  7. Fai Mao says:

    The roblem with the Mercenaries is that they are probably al Qiada fighters from places like Somalia and Chad.

    Qaddafi may find that once they get a sufficient force in the country that they don’t need him any longer.

    Persuant to WWS post above. What if the man that seizes the shinning apple is named bin Ladin?

  8. lurker9876 says:

    I’m guessing that the reason Obama and Hillary are both quiet is because they just don’t know what to do.

  9. archtop says:

    Crosspatch – I clicked on your link and the headline is…

    “W.H.: Obama won’t speak on Libya”

    WTF???

    As we speak, Qaddafi [sp] is about ready to blow up oil pipelines, plunging the middle-east into more chaos! And where will the MSM be when oil shoots up to $150/bbl?

    If things don’t settle down, expect at 10% correction in the stock market at the least…

  10. kathie says:

    If it weren’t for Israel, this would be interesting to watch. It could turn against Israel so fast……would Obama know what to do? I don’t think so

  11. ivehadit says:

    When is everyone going to realize that the environmentalists are EXCITED that the price of oil will sky-rocket? This is their DREAM! Oil that costs so much that no one can drive/fly/ride anymore. The earth will be saved. Hallelujah!

    Sick, imho. I am hoping that now maybe we will drill here in our own backyard…for a lot less cost that OPEC charged.

  12. lurker9876 says:

    Qaddafi’s blowing up of his oil pipelines will surely put a crimp in Obama’s plans for 2012.

    Lot more jobs will be lost as a result of this and the liberals are going to be elated as long as they get to keep their own SUVs AND get in first in the line for the soon to be precious gas.

    In the meantime, IF they ever lift the ban for ANWR drilling, it will take ten years from that point on. Clinton vetoed the legislation…how many years ago. Had he NOT vetoed it, ANWR would be drilling seven years ago!

    Well, OPEC prices are already going up and it will continue to go up.

  13. WWS says:

    re: report of Qaddafi blowing up his pipelines; first, I think I read a piece with the source for this story yesterday, and I consider the source to be extremely weak. This could just be a reporter’s fantasy, and remember that in the Egyptian crisis we learned that the men at the top of the CIA now just get their news by watching unsourced CNN reports.

    We no longer have anything close to a true “Intelligence Service”, we just have a politicized rumour and innuendo service, prone to panic and gross misinformation.

    BE THAT AS IT MAY…. what if this story were true? (it may be, it may not – I’ll guarantee no one in this administration has any more of an idea than you or I do right now)

    If you’ve followed the debate about drilling in this country at all, you will often hear it said that a reason for not drilling is that we should let the rest of the world drill and use up its oil, and then we will still have some left when world supplies run low. There are several problems with that idea, but the biggest one is that it completely ignores the issue of Lead Times.

    Times like THIS are where that issue jumps out and smashes that entire argument into smithereens. Here’s the problem: oilfield development takes an *extraordinary* amount of lead time, about 4 – 5 years before steady production can actually be achieved for the average field. Waiting until other countries production falls drastically *Guarantees* a 4 – 5 year nationwide inflationary depression before the switchover can happen. There simply aren’t enough resources to get things going any faster than that.

    I and everyone else with any experience in the oil business have been watching for this one coming for 20 years now. It’s pathetic that even with all of the warnings in the world, no one in power will take it seriously until it’s far too late to avoid the train wreck.

  14. jan says:

    One of the problems is that so many people are on different pages with their own special interests. There are oil interests vs green ones; public sector interests vs private sector ones; big government vs small; cultural, racial, religious, gender ones of all hue and types. How is a consensus formed about anything anymore? Even looking at the GOP ‘potential’ nominees — they’re all over the map and fractionally divided up in small numbers among people, who in one party are divided into conservatives, with everybody else inhabiting the new buzz word slot, RINOs.

    These are odd times we are living in.

  15. kathie says:

    This is a bit iffy, but worth contemplating!

    Maummar Gaddafi tied to… Rev. Jeremiah Wright
    February 23, 2011 6:42:07 PM MST · by therightliveswithus · 10 replies
    Pundit Press ^ | 2/23/11 | Aurelius
    You may be wondering why President Obama has been mum on the subject of Libya until tonight, even though for the last week Dictator Maummar Gaddafi has been massacring people on his streets. One possible reason is that the White House does not know how to spell “Libya.” Another: President Obama’s spiritual leader, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, has been tied to Gaddafi. This is not to necessarily imply that President Obama didn’t criticize Gaddafi because he favors Gaddafi’s regime, but that the President had trepidation because he was aware of his pastor’s ties to the iron-fisted ruler.

  16. WWS says:

    OT – saw a sad but perfect metaphor for the state of NASA these days. Film of famed shuttle launchpad 39B, the launchpad of the last Saturn V, one of the greatest technical achievements this country has ever produced….

    showed that it was being chopped off for scrap metal and the pieces shipped off to a smelter in Alabama.

    It’s going to be turned into sewer pipe.

    Think of the accomplishments of our engineers a generation ago – now what are we trying to build? Windmills, trains, and sewer pipe. We’re not going forward, we’re going backwards in time.