Oct 24 2016
10_24_16 General Election Polls: Toss Up, Small Trend Continues For Trump
This is the 7th day I have looked at the general election polls for POTUS at RCP. For the 7th day the race looks to be a statistical tie or toss up. Today we have 4 polls:
This is basically an uncomplicated assessment of the general election taken each day by averaging the % of the general election polls for each candidate. Here are the bottom line results for today:
- HRC averaging 42.25%
- Trump averaging 42.50%
- Difference 0.25% (Trump)
This is clearly a statistical tie, and not significantly different from the last 5 days since the last debate. Here is the trend (without yesterday’s over-sampled ABC News polls):
Pretty much the same – toss up with slight edge to Trump. If this trend holds up to election day it will be very bad news for Clinton.
Now let’s deal with that ABC News Poll from yesterday. It clearly was an outlier, and it clearlyy over-sampled Democrats. Given this over sampling was a DNC/Clinton/News Media strategy to deflate support for Donal Trump, I did not even bother to compute what a trend would look like with both versions (yesterday’s post only had the one version of the poll (4-way, which came out first)).
This media poll was starkly different from the last 15 other general election polls. So it gets dumped as an unreliable pile of noise.
Tomorrow I will add a second trend chart that removes the earliest poll so we can see a 7 day sliding window, as well as this summary trend.
My previous posts were:
If the MSM polls are correct then the Dems will sit back and coast.
If it is actuality is a close race look for a November surprise, not unlike the Bush DWI revelation a few days before election 2000.
Their actions will say more about the true state of things than their words.
[…] had stopped looking at the General Election polls back on October 24th. Mainly because there were so many and also because I ran out of cycles because of a delivery on my […]