I had stopped looking at the General Election polls back on October 24th. Mainly because there were so many and also because I ran out of cycles because of a delivery on my day job.

But let’s check back in and see where things stand – just a snapshot of the average support for Clinton and Trump, across all the 2-way and 4-way races:

These polls produce the following average support for the candidates

• HRC averaging 45.83%
• Trump averaging 45.00%
• Difference 0.83% (Clinton)

What we have – no big surprise – is a tie.  There is no Clinton lead, and there has not been one for weeks. Back on October 24th this is what I computed:

• HRC averaging 42.25%
• Trump averaging 42.50%
• Difference 0.25% (Trump)

The “statistical” Margin of Error for these polls is around +/- 3%. The voter turnout model Margin of Error is more like +/- 5% (my own scientifically based WAG). So this is a tie, which actually is bad news for the quasi-incumbent Clinton (who is facing withering bad news this week).

So it all comes down to turnout and energy for the candidate. Guess we all know where that factor points to:

Democratic VP candidate Tim Kaine is holding a rally today at 12:30 PM at Loras College in Dubuque, Iowa.

About 15 people lined up to see Kaine in Iowa.

Tags: 2016 Election, General Election Polls