Sep 04 2006
The Electorate Is Dynamic – Liberals Foolishly Assume It Favors Dems
For those who watch elections and recognize each election cycle has both uniquenesses and commonalities with previous cycles, the media’s hype about this fall’s elections are not only premature – but a common mistake we have seen for 12 years now.
After a year of political turmoil, Republicans enter the fall campaign with their control of the House in serious jeopardy, the possibility of major losses in the Senate, and a national mood so unsettled that districts once considered safely Republican are now competitive, analysts and strategists in both parties say.
Every years the electorate ‘kicks the tires’ of the competition. They flirt with the non-incumbents and considers what life would be like under the opposition. And every years since 1992 that testing phase has had the dems fail. Yes, polls move towards the incumbents, especially in this 3rd election cycle of a two term President’s administration. But the media is missing the fact polls are becoming more divergent as their assumptions fall apart and different pollster get wildly different results. There are polls out there that show Rick Santorum losing by 5% points (winnable) and 18% (a wipe out). What gives? Well, when the electorate is shifting pollster cannot adjust their assumptions and they get distortions. Pollsters use historic trends to extrapolate from 600 voters what the views are of 100’s of thousands. In that kind of magnification (2-3 orders of magnitude) the slightest error will create a large distortion.
What pollster should be doing is seeing these wildly fluctuations and admitting there accuracies are probably dropping. Where some polls are showing a massive Dem advantage, the Gallup poll just came out with a statistical tie. Does anyone believe Lamont beat Lieberman 52-48 in the Democrat primary and a week later he was leading amongst Democrats 65-35 in a poll? The measurement of reality was the 52-48, the estimate is 65-35. The post primary reality is somewhere in between, but probably closer to the primary results.
Remember John Kerry’s lead in the polls heading into 2004? And recall some liberals are still claiming the estimates where more accurate than the measurement! Now, I expect the Reps could lose seats. Historically it is highly likely. But in today’s reality with how poorly the left has been framing this election I doubt they can pull it out. The left has spent years saying Bush hyped our danger and was snooping on Americans for no reason. Now they say we are not safe (since another major terrorist attack was stopped by US and UK intelligence listening in on people who were citizens of the UK). The liberals have spent years trying to surrender in Iraq to the point if they said we should do what we can to succeed so we can finally get out the entire country would think it was a David Letterman skit. The left is infested with people who think 9-11 was a Bush plot to get at Iraqi oil fields (what we wanted in Afghanistan is never explained, nor why we framed Bin Laden and not Saddam himself).
The left bungled the last 5 years since 9-11 and they do not deserve the right to lead this country. They would squander their opportunity on impeachment hearings and running away from our enemies. We all know this – as do they. So what makes the media think all these competitive races are more than the normal cycle of summer abondment before they come back to the less risky, tried and true selection. Because that is what is wrong with the democrats. Their wild accusations and idealism probably just the tip of the iceberg with what these people think. And when we talk national security, there is no margin for error – or wild gyrations.
One final point. As much as the left and the media want to make this election about George Bush he is not on the ballot, and people are smart enough to know this. He was given 8 years to make his mark and people will let him to a major degree. Primarily because he has not done anything wrong. He has not listened in on his political enemies or tanked the economy or starved the children – nor did he lie about the universally held belief Saddam had WMDs. And no one denies Iraq had the WMD technology to PASS onto Al Qaeda (a more likely scenario than weapons stamped with “Made in Iraq” on them). The lesson in this is also in Connecticutt. When people vote against Bush they end up with a figurehead cypher like Lamont – a political novice who’s only claim to fame is he was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. The vast majority of Americans are just not that desperate. Mainly because they are not so emotionally tied up with the liberal conspiracy theories.
I actually borrowed a friend’s copy of the New York Times down at the diner this morning to read this story.
What a load of baloney!
My prediction for the 2006 Congressional Elections (again)
Senate Republicans +3
House Republicans +10
I think you mean Kerry in 04, not Al Gore. But then again it is hard to tell them apart.
There was a headline on Drudge that more Republican seats were “vulnerable” than had been thought. We shall see, in a couple of months it will be evident to us all. The press beating the drum now is not what matters. Unless of course they are hoping for a self fulfilling prophecy.
I believe the true independents and moderate dems are looking less than kindly at the Dems throwing Joe under the bus.
Also polls still have to adjust to all those who’s only phone is a cellphone which they are now allowed to solicit. Also many people screen their landline calls with answering machines and won’t even answer the polsters call.
Also for any poll group to try to say they can get a good grip on New Orleans after so many people have been displaced would have to give rise to the new miracle math.
Lazy Labor Day Blogging…
…
while strata himself seems reasonable–polls are a flawed predictor at best—the other commentators seem to be living on a different planet. the republicans will almost certainly lose seats in both chambers. that’s the historic pattern and the president’s dismal approval ratings (which have held as consistently bad for over a year now) make it very unlikely that this year will buck the trend
it is premature to say the repubs have lost control of either chamber (i’m not saying it won’t happen either). but it’s not crazy to predict there will be losses. this will be a hard year for republicans. the pre-election polling data looks worse for them than it did for dems on the eve of the 1994 election. again, that doesn’t mean an automatic democrat blowout, but the republicans are fools if they ignore the writing on the wall
just a helpful tip from a guy on the other side of the aisle
UPYERNOZ, you may be completely correct. Or you may be completely wrong. In either case you just stated your opinion, “as you hope it to be” as most other commenters have done.
You said: “polls are a flawed predictor at best—the other commentators seem to be living on a different planet. the republicans will almost certainly lose seats in both chambers. that’s the historic pattern”
and my question is, what historic pattern? The pattern for the last 6 years(three elections) have been for Republicans to GAIN seats.
What you rarely see, if you try to extract info from polls is that:
1.There a lot of people that voted for G. Bush in 2000, enough to elect him.
2. Even more voted for him in 2004(enough to elect him)
3. Probably even more would vote for him in 2008, if they could.
4. Despite the MSM hysteria(which you apparently put some credence in) Most people in the US are NOT clamoring to get rid of Bush or the Republicans.
5. Because Most people are not willing to put the country in the hands of people who have a history of (and a stated intent for)surrender.
6. Most people in the US don’t want the terror war fought on the streets of America, and they see the handwriting on the wall if the Dems get elected.
Also you said: “the pre-election polling data looks worse for them than it did for dems on the eve of the 1994 election.”
You apparently are not considering the fact that you are talking about a hysterical MSM.
Sure in ’94 they weren’t predicting a huge loss for Dems(wishful thinking)
Sure in ’06 they are predicting a huge loss for Reps(wishful thinking)
But, AJ’s title
“The Electorate Is Dynamic – Liberals Foolishly Assume It Favors Dems”
Sums it up best because the MSM, where they get their info, wish that it be so.
nd my question is, what historic pattern?
the historic pattern is the midterm election in the second term of a presidency. almost always it results in a loss for the president’s party. sure, it’s “almost always” and not “always”, so it’s hardly a sure thing. but it is a very strong pattern.
so i disagree that i’m just talking about my opinion here. i’m also talking about probability.
the rest of your comment is mostly partisan pap. sure, dismiss polling data if you want, decry the “liberal MSM” and repeat platitudes about how democrats want to surrender, etc. that’s certainly your right. it just doesn’t make you very convincing.
upyernoz,
Why are you willing to believe the polls that have been lying to you for 12 plus years? The polls done by the MSM are always wrong and you all on the left are always disappointed. Remember the exit polling in 2004? Why do you all not hold the MSM accountable? You all believe the polls, when we discount them. We know what the MSM does to the polls, so we put little stock in them. They over-sample donks, slant their polling questions to get the effect they desire and do not account for the fact that they can not reach people that use cell phones as their only way of contact. The latter leans republican. The polls done by the MSM have one stated agenda, to try and energize the donks to get out and vote and to try and demoralize the republicans to stay home. The problem is, the reverse always happens with the voters. The faithful republicans come out in droves, and this year will be no different. The donks have a tough time coordinating a great voter turnout and this year will be no different.I guess you might be unaware that internal GOP polling shows the intent of republican voters to be very high with GW getting an 88% approval rate among them. You all are facing very tough times this election cycle. You will not pick up either the house or the senate. Middle America sees your party for what it is. You are LOSING JEWISH AND RELIGIOUS VOTERS in large numbers. When the Jews decide yo uare an anti-semite party, which you are, you are facing tough times ahead.
The “Doom” Of The Midterms…
The citizens of this country see that the Democrats response to terrorism is to react to a terrorist event rather then pro-actively attack the terrorists themselves. They were against the Patriot Act, against the wiretapping of Al-Qaeda calling their …
I guess you might be unaware that internal GOP polling shows the intent of republican voters to be very high with GW getting an 88% approval rate among them.
now that is funny.
you’re just sloganeering here. yes, the exit polls in 2004 didn’t predict the result in ohio (they were right in most of the states). but they, like all polls, had a margin of error and they predicted a close race, which is what it actually was.
if the republicans want to believe that the president has an 88% approval rating, then please be my guest. it’s not just “MSM” polls that show otherwise, also independent polling firms .
it’s very easy to live in a fantasy world when you reject everything that doesn’t fit with your pre-established beliefs as biased
myself, i like to read both sides of the story. the wise people acknowledge when the weaknesses in their position and will grant the other side points when they happen.
When the Jews decide yo uare an anti-semite party, which you are, you are facing tough times ahead.
that hasn’t happened. as it happens i’m jewish. jews are not overwhelmingly in the democratic camp anymore. jews split down the middle in the 2004 presidential race (like the country was). but now, very few jews i know like the president anymore. that’s not a representative sample by any means. it’s just anaectdotal evidence, but it is saying something that all of my friends who once supported bush, don’t anymore
I think the problesm the Demcorats face is that they do not offer alternatives. I voted Democrat for many years and I left the party because they were unserious and pandering. That has not changed.
For instance, we have Shumer promising to bring down gas prices? how? Is he going to pass the cheap gas act? This is so typical.
the rest of your comment is mostly partisan pap. sure, dismiss polling data if you want, decry the “liberal MSMâ€
To do so would be to deny truth.
Just what was ‘Partisan?’
You don’t believe the 88% of Repubs support Bush? Actually I don’t either, I think the true number is higher. Unfortunately the Repubs have a couple of problems, one is, they don’t speak out as often and as loudly as they should.
Another is, they don’t go out and have protests and marches like the liberals and far lefters do.
Fortunately tho, since they tend to be informed, they do go out and vote in higher percentages.
The Dems, just the opposite. While they like to go out and march and protest, the norm is for them to be uninformed (you may certainly be an exception) and even when they vote, they don’t usually know who
and what they’re voting for, especially the consequences.
Now this sentence:
“jews are not overwhelmingly in the democratic camp anymore.”
I think you hit the nail on the head. Up until the last election they were, but now that they know that the Dems just sold them out in this latest skirmish, I think they’ve now flown the coop, over to the friendly side.
And this one:”myself, i like to read both sides of the story.” I’ll take you at your word on this and say, then Sir, you are an exception. But one informed Dem doesn not an election make and even if it did, and you are truly informed, then I have no doubt you will be voting with the Repubs.
And you said:
“it’s very easy to live in a fantasy world when you reject everything that doesn’t fit with your pre-established beliefs as biased”
Do you consider yourself an exception? Why do you think you are not living in a fantasy world.
But you are admitting you have ” your pre-established beliefs as biased” What makes you think you have a special insight that Republicans don’t have? Maybe no-one does.
But since you admit that you have ” your pre-established beliefs as biased” what makes you think that what you wrote is objective?
UPYERNOZ,
Well, I guess you can’t read because I said amongst republicans GW has a 88% approval rating. I got very bad news for you because the link to the story is attached. It is from U.S. News and Word Report. You can see it here –
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060809/9whisper.htmEverything I said was spot on. It is you that is living in afantasy. If you think Jews are not viewing your party as anti-semitic, yo uare wrong. I have allot of Jewish friends that normally vote donk, not anymore. They saw what donks were saying during their fighting with Lebanon. Why are Jewish groups ALL COMING TO THE AID OF LIEBERMAN and shunning Lamont, whom is welcomed with open arms by your party? Answer because they are starting to understand you all are weak on national security and do not support Israel. Religious voters are running away from the donks in droves like I said. Follow the attached link to see the polling. Not good for you all. To quote ffrom the polling “only 26 percent of Americans think the Democratic Party is “friendly” to religion. That’s down from 40 percent in the summer of 2004 and 42 percent the year before that—in other words, a 16-point plunge over three years. The decline is especially troubling because it cuts across the political and religious spectra, encompassing liberals and conservatives, white and black evangelicals, mainline Protestants, Catholics, and Jews. “http://pewforum.org/publications/surveys/religion-politics-06.pdfLike I said earlier, it is going to be a tough Nov. election for the donks. Don’t say I did not give you heads up.
Polling confirming what I said about republicans. Just for you UPYERNOZ -http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060809/9whisper.htm
UPYERNOZ,
Just for you in case you do not follow the link I posted above :
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060809/9whisper.htmFrom the Washington Whispers -GOP voters: like a rockA three-page-survey memo obtained by Washington Whispers reveals that despite reports of some dissatisfaction with the economy, the war, and President Bush, 81 percent of Republican voters are “almost certain” to vote and an additional 14 percent say they are “very likely.” It goes without saying that they’ll vote Republican: By a margin of 84 percent to 6 percent, they will pull the GOP toggle switch in the voting booth. And here is something you don’t hear very often: 88 percent of Republicans approve of how the prez is handling his job. What’s it all mean? Analysts say that GOP voters are ready to dig in and play defense against the charges Democrats are tossing at Republican candidates.Yeah, I was not telling the truth.From Slate – Not God’s Party
A new poll shows Democrats are losing (more) religious votershttp://www.slate.com/id/2148547/The Pew Research Center’s annual poll on religion and politics, released last week, shows that while 85 percent of voters say religion is important to them, only 26 percent of Americans think the Democratic Party is “friendly” to religion. That’s down from 40 percent in the summer of 2004 and 42 percent the year before that—in other words, a 16-point plunge over three years. The decline is especially troubling because it cuts across the political and religious spectra, encompassing liberals and conservatives, white and black evangelicals, mainline Protestants, Catholics, and Jews.Yeah, I was lying.
UPYERNIZ –
just for you -http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060809/9whisper.htmWashington Whispers: GOP voters: like a rock
A three-page-survey memo obtained by Washington Whispers reveals that despite reports of some dissatisfaction with the economy, the war, and President Bush, 81 percent of Republican voters are “almost certain” to vote and an additional 14 percent say they are “very likely.” It goes without saying that they’ll vote Republican: By a margin of 84 percent to 6 percent, they will pull the GOP toggle switch in the voting booth. And here is something you don’t hear very often: 88 percent of Republicans approve of how the prez is handling his job. What’s it all mean? Analysts say that GOP voters are ready to dig in and play defense against the charges Democrats are tossing at Republican candidates.Yeah, I was lying.
“””” jews are not overwhelmingly in the democratic camp anymore. jews split down the middle in the 2004 presidential race (like the country was). but now, very few jews i know like the president anymore. “”””
The president of Iran says they will not halt attempts to get a nuclear
weapon. The President of Iran says they will wipe Israel off the map, as soon as they can. (Which will probably be the day they acquire a nuclear
weapon). President Bush says we will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. The leaders of the Democrat Party say we need to talk to Iran and after that they will probably be nice.
And the Democrats think any American Jew with ties to Israel is going to belief that if they just vote Democrat, Israel will be safe?
Well, I hope and pray the republicans win in Nov. If they don’t this country is in for lot of trouble. The democrats will cease funding for Iraq, impeach the president for protecting us, kill the patriot Act agan, raise taxes and ruin the economy and all the crooks and thieves will be in high places in Washinton stealing our money and generally tearing the the US down. I know this all sounds like a rant, but this is what they have promised to do.
Our resident troll is trying to act like a reasonable person, but a reasonable liberal is an oxymoron. He probably thinks he can change some our minds about the liberal ideas, but he has no chance of this. As far as I can see we are all conservatives and will remain that way. He says he has researched both sides of the news. I take leave to differ with him on this because he obviously has not. Liberals come on sites like this one and pretend to be something they are not. They lie all the time. It is probably a compulsive habit they cannot control.
I would like to apologize to all for the repeat posts above. When Iwas attempting to post, I kept getting a glitch on my end, so I thought the posts were getting lost. I will be more aware in the future and wait a while to see if my post is visible. Sorry AJ.