Too many people, but especially politicians, lawyers and journalists, have forgotten the concept of momentum and acceleration – and how it applies to public opinion. Momentum is the phenomenon that says once a thing is in motion, it requires force to deflect it or reverse its motion. Left on its own it will continue on its way. The liberal conventional wisdom in Iraq was Iraq’s momentum was carrying it into a failure that was unavoidable. All the force we could apply on the ground would never change the course of Iraq. Thankfully for the Iraqis and America these people were dead wrong. The vector of Iraq has turned, significantly, as the Wall Street Journal points out today:

We’ll get to that report in a moment. What’s more important is to note the changes that have taken place in Iraq, all of which indicate that the “surge” is working and that we are at last on our way toward a positive military outcome. As General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker prepare their testimony to Congress later this month, it’s worth pointing to a few indicators:

• There were 30 “multiple fatality” (usually suicide) bombings in August 2007. In August 2006 there were 52.

• There were 120 daily attacks by insurgents and militias last month, down from 160 in August 2006.

• 60,000 prisoners were being held by the U.S. and Iraq as of last month, up from 27,000 a year earlier.

• Iraqi security forces currently number 360,000, up from 298,000 a year ago.

With all due respect, there are even better indicators. We are chasing al-Qaeda from their strong holds which once ringed the capitol of Baghdad and were choking of political progress. The fact al-Qaeda is killing as it is chased into the hills and soon out of the country is not surprising. They are a one trick pony – they kill and maim. I have tons of posts on the changes seen in various areas of Iraq, but here is just one example of how the areas we have focused our attention on are seeing even greater changes:

Still, the improved situation here comes as some relief to the U.S. military, which not long ago had counted an average of 10 to 15 attacks a day in Ramadi alone; now, there’s about one attack a day, and no Americans have been reported killed in the city since mid-May (versus seven in July 2006). Elsewhere in Anbar, five Americans were killed in July, one more than in June but far fewer than the 19 in July 2006.

So which way is the momentum pointing now? Prior to The Surge Anbar Province was only an example of what was possible. al-Qaeda had moved to Diyala province and established their second capitol city of the modern caliphate in Diyala’s capitol city of Baquba. Their first capitol city in Anbar’s Ramadi had been lost to the changing tide. Since then Diyala and many other provinces have seen the same wave that washed over Anbar come through and clear out al-Qaeda. Diyala is now an up and coming Anbar – where a US President could visit next spring to see the incredible changes now crossing Iraq.

We know which way the momentum is pointed – towards success and away from failure. And only a naive fool would wager a few thousand blood thirsty and despised al-Qaeda terrorists could apply enough force to deflect the will of 25 million Iraqis backed by 360,000 Iraqi security forces and 160,000 of America’s finest. 10-20,000 terrorists on the run do not have the ability to deflect such numbers who are now determined to exterminate them.

So now we need to look at the concept of acceleration – which is also occurring in Iraq. Acceleration is the snowball effect. Momentum is the direction; acceleration is the phenomena of picking up speed. In the case of Iraq the changes are spreading wider and occurring faster. The country seems to have hit critical mass as the numbers now openly opposed to al-Qaeda and ready to work with the central government have covered just about all of the country. Of the 18 or so provinces Anbar and Diyala were the last of the two big holdouts. With these two areas changing course the country is no longer stuck in a violent circle but now progressing along a common path.

And I think the democrats understand this – it is their liberal base and media enablers who are failing to grasp (as usual) what has happened. This is not ‘happening’ or ‘going to happen’. It has happened. The full impact of this change in momentum has yet to be realized, but we are accelerating towards the day those results will come forth. Liberals, totally oblivious to what is going on they desperately try to hold onto their snapshot viewpoints that they froze to last year. It is a classic mistake by people who cannot view things in the long term. Those who “live here now” fail to see the forces and eddies that direct human events. And they fail to recognize how human will can rise up and change the direction of fate when enough people are brought to bear. That is why they never did or will appreciate what happened in Iraq.

The momentum in Iraq is 180 degrees and in the opposite direction from the dark days of 2006. More and more of the nation are now on a common path to a brighter future. There will always be dead enders and those who fantasize Iraq can be turned by a ragtag bunch of thugs whose intellectual prowess extends only to thinking about different ways to butcher people in large numbers. To destroy is easy – to create is the hard part. Anyone can rip up a tissue, but who can make one from scratch? It is a simple analogy – but it is valid. al-Qaeda can destroy, it cannot build or create. And because of this inability to provide for the people it has become the enemy of the people of Iraq. And now Americans are seen as the protectors. The tipping point is past. Now the only question is who will be the ones too blind not to see it. Who will be the last to get a clue?