Oct 13 2007
As Goes Diyala So Goes Iraq
I first predicted Diyala would be the tipping point in Iraq for al-Qaeda (destroyed), the Iraqi government (successful), America’s efforts in Iraq (successful) and the Democrats’ future (destroyed) in this post back in mid April. At that point very few people understood the trend lines shaping up in Iraq. Anbar was basically cleared at that stage and Diyala was the last large refuge of al-Qaeda – and the Surge was on its way there. Here is what I said:
Are we there yet? Of course not. But we are headed in the right direction and picking up speed. If Diyala turns out al Qaeda and its allies then Baghdad can be peacefully controlled. The violence will never end, but it will become manageable for the Iraqis so we can draw down our forces and focus our efforts elsewhere.
I had another post about a week later, as things picked up in Diyala, where I predicted the Dems’ efforts to surrender Iraq to Bin Laden would fail if Diyala was turned like Anbar. I have nearly 80 posts on Diyala Province running from May of this year just to keep an eye on events there and see how things would turn out. I even noted it would take a few months to see the results of The Surge on the Province (it is a more complicated problem than Anbar was).
Today we see some of those early results, and it is a harbinger of defeat for al-Qaeda and its cheerleaders:
Violence in Iraq’s Diyala River Valley has been slashed in half thanks to citizen volunteers, a coalition commander said today.
“Currently in Diyala, we have 4,000 local citizens who have decided to reject al Qaeda and other extremist organizations as well as militia, and they’re now helping in the protection of their own neighborhoods,†Army Col. David Sutherland told online journalists and “bloggers†during a conference call from Forward Operating Base Warhorse near Baqouba, Iraq.
…
“Unlike al Anbar, which is predominantly Sunni, in Diyala we have 25 major tribes from all sects: Sunni, Shiia and Kurdish. And we also have over 100 sub-tribes within this province. All are competing for resources and for power,†Sutherland said. “Reconciliation in Diyala attempts to eliminate all the rifts in the society that al Qaeda about 18 months ago attempted to exploit.â€
So far, 250 tribal leaders have signed reconciliation agreements, the colonel said. Only three tribes have yet to sign, and that is due only to their remote locations, Sutherland said.
Violence cut in half and the volunteers are lining up for hours for the opportunity to destroy al-Qaeda and change the direction of a country. With Anbar and Diyala lost to al-Qaeda their area of safe haven and operation is about all gone. There are some holdout areas in Salahadin Province, but as al-Qaeda shrinks the forces aligned against them are growing massively. It is not just the 130,000 US troops there as part of The Surge. It is the swelling ranks of Iraqi police, army units and neighborhood watch groups that are also decimating al-Qaeda and all other Islamo Fascist entities. Iraq has had enough and has made their decision. Death to al-Qaeda and yes to the new Democratic Iraq.
AJ
First I will relink the Commentary article from a couple of posts back.
A longer historic view of the Iraq War is warranted.
Remember in the initial situation we were up against Saddam with his ringed defense of his closest trusted (mostly through elimination at random almost incentives) and most loyal inner circle.
Around this you had the Republican Guard which was his primary defense and enforcers along with his secret police. He always kept the at some distance, viewing them as the potential threats to usurp his power and reacted quickly to any perceived threat to his own well being.
These were assisted by his citizen based group of thugs and enforcers to bend the population to his will.
Lastly you had the general military and police who were for the most part cannon fodder for his regional aggressions and defensive wars.
For us the Republican Guard was the toughest nut to crack and the general military was an under trained ill equipped opponent.
They were sent into the field to oppose us with next to no logistical support and sitting in trenches with a few days food and water and enough ammunition for only a limited fire fight.
When we advanced into Baghdad in rapid order, the Republican Guard and the Bathists as well as the general army melted into the population. Thousands of prisoners were released into the general population.
After the initial reaction to the liberation, then set in the period of both evening up the scores to be settled by some, plus the parallel regrouping of the prior military to form and insurgent base to somehow still exert control with the vain hope of restoration of power to Saddam or some other Bathist strong man if that option was taken away.
Then they allied with AQ as a marriage made in hell for their perceived common objective.
Even early COIN operations would have not gotten hold and traction because of the power vacuum that existed as well as few trained to implement the governmental structures and such to recover the needed mechanisms and infrastructure.
I always advised that the corner would not be turned until the general population rejected the over the top methods of AQ in particular and until the combined numbers of the local forces which had to be trained which doesn’t happen over night and the number of our forces were sufficient to do the clear and hold requirement.
So now we have enough combined troops to do the deed. But still not every where at once.
What is happening now is that our combined numbers clear and hold and then the local take over with self defense to assist and provide intelligence on the bad guys.
As an area is secured and the locals plus police can handle the local security. Then we shift to reconstruction and winning hearts and minds for bottom up reconciliation to put the country back together.
As the situation stabilizes, then most of the local troops and ours can be redeployed to other areas to wash rinse and repeat.
When you look at down the road, by the time we reduce our manning back to pre surge levels we will have trained and put into the field more new Iraqi soldiers than we are withdrawing from the battle space.
As the stabilized areas grow on the repeat application of the process it will make it harder for the AQ and other insurgents to run and hide.
Their logistics will be impaired and we will be aggressively keeping them on their back foot and getting into their minds to disrupt their tactical capabilities.
Sure there will be setbacks.
But imagine if you will, just how long would it take if you had to rebuild from scratch the police, national guard , justice and legislative system in California if they were all wiped out at one time by a hypothetical situation. It does not happen in a New York minute.
Some good reading for you:
Three-year-old bride in Afghanistan
http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/2007/10/018458print.html
Sanctioned by Muhammad’s example:
The Prophet wrote the (marriage contract) with ‘Aisha while she was six years old and consummated his marriage with her while she was nine years old and she remained with him for nine years (i.e. till his death).
Nigeria: Muslims threaten to attack church
“Becoming Christians means permanent separation from their families if they must remain alive,†he said. “If they return to their families they would certainly be killed.†Feel the love.
“Nigeria: Muslim Threat To Attack Church Raises Tensions,”
http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/2007/10/018449print.html
“Our scholars have given a religious decree saying that things which are usually abominable in Islam are permitted to wage jihad against the enemies of Islam”
The Taliban uses South Korean hostage cash to buy weapons. What did the South Koreans think they would buy with it? Cotton candy? Should Western states really be handing jihadists “God-sent” opportunities?
“Taliban use hostage cash to fund UK blitz,” by Massoud Ansari in the Telegraph.
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/2007/10/018463print.html
I think we will eventually get Military Victories in both Iraq and Afghanistan, if we keep at it.
But I don’t see either Country ever becoming “Democratic” in ways we in the west would like to see. And that is because both countries new Constitutions are based on Islamic Law. It would seem impossible to believe that they went thru all that they did to make sure Both Constitutions were Islamic based, only to turn around and ignore just what that means and entales.