I made a prediction many months ago that The Surge was chasing al-Qaeda out of Iraq and towards their last stronghold in Northern Pakistan and Southern Afghanistan – basically the areas surrounding Tora Bora. It made sense to make this prediction. Being hunted by Iraqis meant al-Qaeda fighters had to flee to some new base of operations and the lawless regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan seemed to be the last place left on earth these forces could mass. Now theS Secretary of Defense is confirming this retreat of al-Qaeda forces is possibly happening, as predicted (or more accuratley, ‘as hoped’):

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates landed in Afghanistan on Monday to gauge military commanders’ needs as they face a strengthened Taliban and signs that al Qaeda is regrouping in the country.

…

The Pentagon also is worried about signs that al Qaeda is resurfacing in Afghanistan after defeats in parts of Iraq.

“We’re seeing real early indicators that there may be some stepped-up activity by al Qaeda,” said a senior U.S. defense official traveling with Gates. “Certainly that’s something that we’re concerned with.”

American military officers in Iraq have speculated that al Qaeda would try to return to Afghanistan after losing ground in Iraq, where violence has declined following a security crackdown that added thousands of U.S. troops to the streets.

But the senior official’s comments marked the first time the Pentagon has acknowledged seeing evidence that al Qaeda fighters were moving back into Afghanistan. The official stressed, however, that the evidence was still not conclusive.

“The tell-tale signs would be stepped up activities by foreign fighters, finding foreign fighters inside Afghanistan as a result of battle casualties and things like that. We’re not seeing enough yet to draw conclusions,” said the U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Actually, there have been lots of reports of foreign fighters in Pakistan and infighting between these foreign enclaves and local Taliban. The fish are migrating to the barrel for US, NATO and Pakistani forces to give them their modern version of Custer’s Last Stand. Of course in this new rendition Bin Laden and his crew get to play General Custard.