Jul 20 2008
The End Of The COLB Cult – Myth Busted Again
Update: Reader Ray from Australia noted this article wherein an official of the state of HI looked at the BHO COLB and said it looked to be real. Â
When the birth certificate arrived from the Obama campaign it confirmed his name as the other documents already showed it. Still, we took an extra step: We e-mailed it to the Hawaii Department of Health, which maintains such records, to ask if it was real.
“It’s a valid Hawaii state birth certificate,” spokeswoman Janice Okubo told us.
As shown below, how could anyone miss the unique style of the border? There’s more – there may now exist another COLB with the same border:
We circled back to the Department of Health, had a newsroom colleague bring in her own Hawaii birth certificate to see if it looks the same (it’s identical).Â
As I said below, just one more COLB formatted like Obama’s and Pam’s expert has egg on his face. Update: I have a question for Techdude and others who have multiple COLBs in their position: Did you ever get one that looks like the BHO COLB with its style of borders?  And if so, why didn’t you publish that information?  You may not, but these witnesses indicate there were two formats in circulation.  Kind of hard to believe you folks never saw one, but it is possible. – end update
Why are there two formats? Either one was a prototype discontinued or HI is just running through the last of their old stock. But the point still stands – to accuse someone of a crime you have to more the claim it is possible. If anyone has a COLB that has the same border pattern as below I would be interested in hearing about it [ajstrata@strata-sphere.com]
Finally, Hat Tip to Allahpundit at Hot Air for the link. Â Hope your sin of support doesn’t cause too many headaches from the cultists.
Update: Well, if someone wants to know why this myth-mess is good for Obama, here’s an example – end update
Well, it seems we finally have the final report, representing the final act of the COLB Cult today. Techdude has produced something that impresses the non-technical groupies of the movement. But does it hold up to the argument there is evidence, beyond a reasonable doubt (my standard for when I confront smears)? No, not really.
One thing to recall is the track record of failed claims from various cultists since this began. Each claim debunked, followed by wilder claims, which were debunked. Here is a recap of the trend:
(1) The image on Kos was a forgery because it was not a BC but a COLB (took people a while to realize HI had moved to issuing COLBs instead of BCs).
(2) The image was a fake because there was no stamped seal – later discovered existing in the image.
(3) The image was a fake because there was not signature seen on the back – later discovered in the image.
(4) The image was a fake because there was no date stamp for when it was issued – which was detected and evident to the casual viewer.
(5) The image was fake because it was photoshopped – later shown to be a cropping of the excess paper area and blacking out of the ID number
(6) The image was fake because it was different from the BHO version – later discovered to be the fact BHO saved the image to a lower resolution, smaller web friendly version.
(7) The image is a fake because it was made from a forgery started by Opendna – that lame claim lived for weeks, but in the end was proven impossible.
(8) The image was a fake because the borders did not match a 2002 COLB – one of my favorites because of this line from the aforementioned Techdude:
But upon manually stretching them to match edge to edge I caught a glimpse of what I and apparently everyone else had simply not noticed. The security borders do not match. Literally. They are not even close to identical.
Here’s the image of the two borders – how could anyone not see that? Subtle – eh? Techdude later admitted THIS claim was wrong – there had been updates between the 2002 and 2007 COLB formats. He also debunked the Opendna claims.
(8) The image was claimed to be a fake as more and more people compared the 2002 COLB to the newer 2007 COLB – all of which proved nothing more than we already knew, Hawaii was updating their vital records and COLBS in response to 9-11 and the Real ID Act of 2005, as can be seen in the variety of COLBs found for the period
(9) The image was a fake because the document format version control number never changed while the format did – which we now know is because the format control number covers the data fields and contents, not the look and feel.
(10) The image is a fake because a date field has a format anomaly in it – but then the exact same anomaly was found in other COLBS from the same time frame.
(11) Anti-aliasing haze around the text was a sign of forgery – when it is actually only a sign of text being printed.
Today Techdude has his report out, so let’s see if he has a smoking gun or wrecked professional credibility.
Sadly, Techdude doesn’t provide an analysis, he produces cherry picked data from one side only. A real analysis compares the evidence that supports the opposite conclusion. From the list above we see tons of reverse examples. Assumptions of what real image would contain, which later proved to exist. All those debunked claims are also evidence that the COLB image is real. It from the totality of the evidence that we decide which side is MORE COMPELLING. A real technical analysis would address all the evidence and discuss why some crazy marginal border measurements outweigh things like the impressed seal (hard to fake), a signature area, etc. All things COMMON to valid COLBs and images of them, but hard to fake out using graphics programs.
And much of what Techdude discovered PROVES points I made way back – which supports the claim the image of the BHO COLB is a scan of a legit COLB. For example, I predicted that as part of the upgrades to the COLB that came on line in 2006, there was a change in the paper which was probably a more secure paper-cloth hybrid. This new paper was thicker and made the seal impression harder to detect from a front scan. Techdude confirmed this again today:
The embossed seals and ink stamps in all of the pre-2006 images are clearly visible in the scans however none of the post-2006 seals or ink stamps are visible without extensive manipulation to the digital images. Even when scanning the physical post-2006 certificate in my possession using multiple resolutions and using multiple scanners I was also unable to produce an image which would allow the seal to show though the image. The ink stamps on the rear side were also not visible in the front side scans without digital modifications to the scanned images. My scans of the physical certificate also produced the same results using multiple resolutions and using multiple scanners.
This destroys many forgery claims by Polarik and others who compared the 2002 COLB and BHO 2007 COLBs based on these features. And in fact, the similarity in the results by Techdude on taking modern COLBs and seeing the same telltales in his scans as shown in the Kos image means he proved the Kos image is legit. When you use real world COLBs and perform the same scanning process using a range of variables and you create the same result this is confirmation.
It should have been noted as such in any professional ‘report’. Also, if you want review of your work you need to provide the data. Figure 3 is a low quality image of the ‘smoking gun’. When I tried to down load it and blow it up it was impossible to see. Sorry, but peer reviewing requires the actual data. I will forego any detailed comments until Techdude and Pam decide to provide all the data.
But let’s step back again to the blatantly obvious fact the BHO COLB has unique security borders – not even close to the others. Techdude goes into minute measurements to prove the obvious – the borders are not the same. Why? We know they are not. Not the same color, not the same pattern, not the same dimensions. What Techdude has not proven is that the 2007 BHO COLB is the one and only HI COLB with that pattern! Techdude has two other COLBS (from 2006 and 2008) with telltales IDENTICAL to the BHO COLB. These include version numbers, data fields and contents, border lettering, seal imprints etc. Commonalities that cannot be ignored.
Finally Techdude repeats his horrible mistake from day one – he goes back to comparing apples to oranges. Remember, Techdude has some original COLBs, which he or someone else scanned. They were not scanned by the same person who scanned the BHO COLB. They were not scanned on the same machines using the same settings. Why is this important?
Because the tools Techdude wanted to use to do image analysis are used to detect image manipulation WITHIN an image. These tools and methods look at inconsistencies with in an image to show where the image was manipulated. an image should have consistent sharpness, depth, resolution, etc if it has not been tampered with. Areas where there is known tampering would show up easily (for example where the ID number was blocked out). A real expert in this field did the analysis on the BHO image and concluded they were reasonably untouched (minus the known manipulations).
What did Techdud do? To my shock he took three different images and tried to compare across them!
The 2007, 2008, and the two KOS images were then analyzed by creating a heat map showing where each pixel changes as jpeg quality decreases from 100 to 0. A change was considered relevant once the sum of the changes to the red, green, and blue values exceeded 10%. The heat map created from the 2007 and 2008 images showed the fonts, seal image, and security border are all identical consistent values. To eliminate any subjective presumptions and to increase the number of comparative tests the same analysis was then conducted on the 2006 and prior certificate images which all found the fonts, seal images, and security borders to also be saved with identical consistent values. The same analysis on the KOS images showed the security border having a substantially different RGB quality value than the fonts and the seal image.
It is a rookie mistake with these kinds of tools, to try and make assumptions across uniquely created images of different formatted documents. There is no conclusion that can be drawn when doing this except the documents are different and the process of image capture was not the same. It doesn’t prove anything beyond that (and Techdude knows this). Here are the images:
Original here. Â Clearly there is are differences, but I want to note the blacking out of date fields to show what a ‘forgery’ we show. You can see in all three where the modifications were done – they are impossible to miss. They have sharper edges, they have different colors. Â While all three show different RGB results, all of them are the same thing – efforts to black out personal data. You need to look at changes in the context of the image itself, not across images. Â For example, the fact COLB 2 has bright borders on the black outs and COLB 1 doesn’t is not a sign one of them is forged.Â
The BHO COLB is unique to the set of COLBs so far seen. But we can end this mess in a heartbeat. If anyone has a HI COLB that is of the format and structure of the BHO COLB please share it with us. If you got a COLB around Jun 2007 my guess is you might have the variant we saw with the OBH COLB, which seemed to be around for a while as an experiment or prototype version. Just a scan of of the border is needed – nothing more.
Techdude has given his groupies more false positives to run around and play their games with. Â He also showed, unintentionally, why the BHO COLB image could be real. Â He confirmed the paper upgrade and showed empirically that all the new COLBs, post 2006, shared the same traits regarding the impression of the seal.
Now what are the odds someone who screwed up the borders so badly also caught the paper quality detail? Basically they are – zero! Â No one who did enough investigating to make sure the seal imprint was light due to new, thicker paper would miss the borders. Â What are the odds a person who screwed up the borders so badly was able to know to put the date field anomaly in? Â Zero as well. Thanks Techdude, but as usual you proved my point. Â When you claim such an obvious and glaring disconnect is the work of a forger who was able to get the other mountain of hidden details right – you have debunked yourself.Â
Myth busted – again.
AJ:
I appreciate your critical review of both Techdude’s analysis and the analyses of others who seem intent on proving that the COLB was a forgery. You are indeed correct that the scientific method is built on disproof, not proof. However, I would politely ask you to follow suit. Just as Techdude has failed to prove beyond a reasonable doubt (your standard, not necessarily mine) that the document is a forgery, neither has it been proved that the document is not a forgery. Hence, you seem all too eager to proclaim at every juncture that the “myth” has been “busted.” That is presumptuous too, my friend.
The correct approach should be to speak in terms of what we absolutely do know and state possible conclusions as to things we don’t know for certain in conditional terms. From following this debate, I would state the situation currently stands thusly:
(1) Assuming that the COLBs scanned by Techdude from 2006 to 2008 represent the only border patterns used in Hawaii COLBs during that time frame, and
(2) Assuming that the Obama COLB that has been the subject of all this analysis was printed in 2007, then
(3) It would not be an unwarranted to conclusion to suggest that the Obama COLB was a forgery, although other (less likely) non-forgery explanations might remain.
I believe that that is an accurate statement as to what we do know. Now, the chief concern should be determining the veracity of premises (1) and (2).
Concerning (1), I’d have to say that it seems more likely than not (a “preponderance of the evidence,” if you like) that if the border patterns on the 2006 through 2008 COLBs are identical (and they seem to be), then any 2007 COLBs would have the same border pattern. I think this needs to be addressed. We need to determine the full range of different border pattern used from 2006 to 2008. I suggested to Mitchell Langbert that he request a copy of the full range of templates used since 1961 to see if any match. I think we should watch carefully to see if the HI Dept. of Health supplies him with them.
Concerning (2), has it been seriously disputed the the Obama COLB was issued and printed in 2007? That is not a rhetorical question; I’m really asking.
In sum, I don’t think it prudent under the scientific method to conclude that the Obama COLB was genuine beyond a reasonable doubt. The most that can be said is that no one has yet proven it to be a forgery beyond a reasonable doubt. And finally, I think the border pattern disparity that Techdude has demonstrated is a substantial piece of evidence that, while not dispositive of forgery, cannot easily be dismissed.
AJ; its no surprise you would attempt to refute “techdud’s” analysis, I predicted that a week ago.
Just like the Immigration issue, just like the Michele Obama so-called “Whitey” tape issue, you’ve painted yourself into a corner with your “analysis”.
And as you’ve already proven AJ, multiple times, once you paint yourself into a corner with your own “analysis”, you never retreat, nor admit you made a mistake, you just come out swinging even harder, and you never let it go, you repeat it ad naseum, hoping that eventually, thru sheer dint of volumne, you’ll make it true.
That’s fine, your Blog, your “rules”.
I’ll no longer comment on the validity of Obama’s COLB; I have my opinion, you have yours.
However, a comment on your number one fan, and supporter, “Ray” from Australia!
He has been posting on this Blog, for the past week, passing himself off as a technical “expert”; supporter of your analysis, buttressing your claims, and all the while pretending to be some type of apolitical outside observer ‘expert” who’s only interest in this affair was the empircal truth!
Well, it seems that little charade collapsed today over at Atlas, as he has:
a) admitted he’s in the tank for Obama (so much for the apolitical, unbiased interest in the COLB issue)!
b) admitted that he really isn’t a “technical expert” after all; he’s only an “digital reproduction”; which means basically he xerox’s documents, or works in Kinko’s for a living!
c) plays the “victim” because we all challenged him to put up or shut up
d) in the end, admits hes’ got nothing, and refers us to your website, and some other website, for the “expertise”.
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/07/atlas-exclusive.html?cid=123060168#comment-123060168
WOW!
AJ, in the end, as I always said, Commonsense is the ONLY thing that applies here.
If you believe AJ, that a major Presidential Campaign, such as Obama’s, would release their REAL COLB thru a radical Leftist Nutbag website, such as the Daily Kos, then fine, power to you.
Me, I don’t believe it!
I DO believe, as I’v always said, that there is nothing on Obama’s REAL COLB, that is forged, or inaccurate, or embarrasing to him.
I have however said, I just in no way believe that they’d release their REAL COLB thru that website, that is why I believe the Daily Kos version is a fake.
That’s not “expertise”, that’s just commonsense!
But, if you choose to think that that is true, okay, then fine, we agree to disagree.
Regardless of that, it does appear that “Ray”, is a bogus supporter, by his own admission.
AJ;
I think you are taking the long way around this. None of the studies, paper, etc. really matter – not to a genealogist.
I am a “genealogist”, having spent a good 20 years working on family history. I’ve also spent 2 years as a Registrar in the DAR. I don’t know how familiar you are with the DAR and their standards, but I looked at the Obama certificated presented as a DAR Registrar. It doesn’t work.
Given the fact that all states are different, there are certain facts one needs to accept a certificate as valid. If I were working on a DAR form to submit in order to have an ancestor recognized, I would absolutely refuse to accept the certificate as presented, knowing that it would be denied by the NSDAR’s strict requirements for records. I would assume 2 additional pieces of information would be needed to overcome the problems of the certificate in question.
It has nothing to do with paper, font, grains of paper, weave of paper, etc – and everything to do with the fact that there is no “Official” notation on the paper, such as a stamp, something embossed, or a notary mark. If there is no such mark, I would clearly attach a printed notation from the state in question that none were required. If you look at the material provided on Atlas Shrugs, there are several valid certificates presented. All have an emboss stamp on it. Without that stamp, the certificate is, in my Registrar’s mind, not valid.
It doesn’t matter if it is a copy. Some form of the above will show up somewhere on the copy. I’ve made dozens of copies of certificates. There will be a shadow or something on it. There is none on the Obama certificate.
Until I see that notation or am presented with valid information from the state of Hawaii that it is not needed, none of this matters.
SJR
The Pink Flamingo
SJR,
Actually, I have taken the direct way to this – I demanded cold hard PROOF that there was a forgery.
Look, these people have had to regroup their claims so many times it was only a matter of time the would box themselves into their own fantasies. Now the propose someone created a forgery of such astounding detail as to mimic the new paper and how a seal stamp would be seen in an jpg image, along with accurately reflecting a subtle anomaly in a date field, but totally screw up the simple cross-hatched border????
Pullease. As a friend would say they just pulled a hat out of a rabbit (aka, BS hollywood endings were miraculous things are discovered).
http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/07/19/another-obamanut-threatens-me/
The “Legend of Crocodile RAYdee” has just taken another hit; as we discover that he has been nothing but a Pro-Obama/Pro-Hillary Troll, all along, passing himself off as a “reproduction” expert (working at Kinko’s??), while all the while, buttressing AJ’s “analysis” with “analysis” and ‘expertise” of his own!
WOW!
AJ, you might be right, ‘techdude” might be right, but one thing that is for sure, “Ray” is a fraud!
AJStrata wrote:
SJR,
Actually, I have taken the direct way to this – I demanded cold hard PROOF that there was a forgery.
Look, these people have had to regroup their claims so many times it was only a matter of time the would box themselves into their own fantasies. Now the propose someone created a forgery of such astounding detail as to mimic the new paper and how a seal stamp would be seen in an jpg image, along with accurately reflecting a subtle anomaly in a date field, but totally screw up the simple cross-hatched border???? [….]
Yeah, but what if they DID screw up the general appearance of the border – at least they got it grossly out-of-square, just like the real McCoy so you’ve gotta give ’em points for that.
Ray
DaleinAtlanta wrote:
However, a comment on your number one fan, and supporter, “Ray†from Australia!
He has been posting on this Blog, for the past week, passing himself off as a technical “expertâ€; supporter of your analysis, buttressing your claims, and all the while pretending to be some type of apolitical outside observer ‘expert†who’s only interest in this affair was the empircal truth!
Well, it seems that little charade collapsed today over at Atlas, as he has:
a) admitted he’s in the tank for Obama (so much for the apolitical, unbiased interest in the COLB issue)!
b) admitted that he really isn’t a “technical expert†after all; he’s only an “digital reproductionâ€; which means basically he xerox’s documents, or works in Kinko’s for a living!
c) plays the “victim†because we all challenged him to put up or shut up
d) in the end, admits hes’ got nothing, and refers us to your website, and some other website, for the “expertiseâ€.
———–
Let me prefix this by saying that the following comment is not meant to be one of those off-the-cuff internet insults. I mean this in the literal sense.
DaleinAtlanta, you appear to be delusional. None of those allegations are true. You made it up.
Ray
INTRO: The End Of The COLB Cult – Myth Busted Again
by AJStrata
————————————————————————-
Geez, I’m glad it’s techdude and Polarik copping it and not me!
Ray
Ray, Dale is not always technical sharp. If he were he would know zeroxing is not a digital process. Yeah, saw you were taking a beating – seems you are able to take it. And I had no idea you were an Obama supporter (I am clearly not).
Well, nobody’s perfect. But in this case you and I and many others are sort of looking at this with our jaws dropped asking “who could be this technically naive?” Seems a lot of folks can be.
drake,
Can you prove your not a child molester? See the why asking to prove a negative is in total opposition to what America stands for?
This is not France. Americans (even dumb ones with no business being in power) are innocent until proven guilty.
So no, I will not play “France’ with you.
Dale, I did disprove it. You just don’t have the technical expertise to grasp it.
And yes, your COLB Cult is JUST like the Church of Al Gore!
Not my problem if you have been out drinking Kool Aid again.
AJStrata wrote:
“Well, it seems we finally have the final report”
————–
It depends upon your definition of “final” is.
There’s a FINAL-FINAL report to come yet, and in your haste you’ve probably not anticipated the SEQUEL to the FINAL-FINAL report. That should be a real doozy of a FINAL report.
Let me prefix this by saying that the following comment is not meant to be one of those off-the-cuff internet insults. I mean this in the literal sense.
DaleinAtlanta, you appear to be delusional. None of those allegations are true. You made it up.
Ray
Ah, Ray, they are ALL correct!
And you’ve been so spanked over at Atlas, by your own admissions, you’ve been reduced to coming over here, and hiding behind AJ.
And, you’ve been outted over at TexasDarlin’ as an Obami fan, a troll, and a fraud.
Sorry, deal with it!
# AJStrataon 20 Jul 2008 at 6:13 pm
Dale, I did disprove it. You just don’t have the technical expertise to grasp it.
And yes, your COLB Cult is JUST like the Church of Al Gore!
Not my problem if you have been out drinking Kool Aid again.
Wow, this from the guy who PROVED the Michelle “Whitey” Obama tape DID EXIST, purely from reading Larry C. Johson’s Blog!
WOW; if that was MY RECORD AJ, I wouldn’t be throwing stones!
You’ve actually disproved nothing, I think “techdude” has handed you your lunch, frankly!
AJStrata wrote:
“Ray, Dale is not always technical sharp. If he were he would know zeroxing is not a digital process. Yeah, saw you were taking a beating – seems you are able to take it. And I had no idea you were an Obama supporter (I am clearly not).
Well, nobody’s perfect. But in this case you and I and many others are sort of looking at this with our jaws dropped asking “who could be this technically naive?†Seems a lot of folks can be.”
———-
I’m not exactly an Obama supporter. I wouldn’t vote for him in this election if I had a choice. I’d like to see Hillary get in, but I am beginning to see that even if he doesn’t have many real skills for the Presidency, he may be able to help with peace a bit more than the others.
I don’t yet have a good idea about your political interests are yet, but I think I could hang around a bit longer here than in some other places where I disagree. I’m not all that interested in politics usually, but I got riled up over that Gitmo stuff last year.
Incidentally I saw the ‘crescent monument’ thread and I agree that it should be changed, while at the same time having no disrespect for Islam. They wouldn’t want an ‘accidental’ cross in the wrong place either.
Ray
DaleinAtlanta wrote:
[….]
And you’ve been so spanked over at Atlas, by your own admissions, you’ve been reduced to coming over here, and hiding behind AJ.
Huh, I’m always good for about 6 weeks! I’m just giving a few others a chance to get a word in.
I’ll dive over there shortly and start pointing out some problems with techdude’s work.
Ray
Dale,
You need to go back and read my positions on the tape – I was calling for anyone to put up or shut up. I had my doubts and said so. I also said any news organization that had it and held it was illegally manipulating our elections.
I never tried to prove it existed. Your whole is deep enough now, take a breather.
Ugh – I hate to do this, but I have to agree with Larry Johnson on one point. Barrack Obama’s non-denial denial yesterday, regarding the existence of a damaging Michelle Obama video, is actually a sign there is a video of Michelle making some harsh comments against whites, and the Obama campaign know it exists,
and…
If I had to guess I would say the video exists and has some potential to damage him (though I still say it is minor since the video is not out now and requires so much hype).
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5508
ah. okay AJ; sorry, once again I got it wrong.
You are correct on everything; I must apologize again, I’m wrong! You never said the tape existed; I just made that up!
And, once again, you HAVE to be correct on the COLB because you said so!
My humblest apologies…
[…] AJ Strata has already come out to refute the findings, and calls the people who question the Obama COLB “cultists”. […]
Dale,
My friend, life would not be the same without you here. Seriously, I mean that. Just remember that when you have to pick me up off the floor.
Cheers, AJStrata