About a week after the last Predator attack on top al-Qaeda targets rumors were flying that al-Qaeda’s number 2, Ayman Zawahiri, may have been injured or killed in the strike. I have been checking in with some folks who are closer to the Intelligence Community than I am and I posted on the fact there was unconfirmed evidence Zawahiri was attending the meeting where the Predator struck. So far there evidence of Zawahiri being injured in the attack (possibly from European Intelligence sources) has not been proven wrong.

So here is my opinion, shared by some others who really don’t know for sure one way or the other. Assuming the evidence is right, and the call for medical assistance was also valid, there is the possibility Zawahiri was seriously injured and is clinging to life (or recovering, depending on his injuries). A man of Zawahiri’s years could be hanging on, but losing the fight to survive. It can take a week or more for some to succumb, depending on the injuries and the medical care, etc.

The news about Zawahiri’s condition has been surprisingly moot. No indication he died, no indication he is OK. This dearth of information seems to tell me the entire situation is in limbo, which means Zawahiri is seriously injured and clinging to life. If my speculation is accurate, we will hear within the next few days either he is gone or fine (which means he has made it passed the critical recovery stages). Given his age, the force of the strike and the medical treatment he has access to, I would not at all be surprised if word leaked out soon he had passed.

Fair warning – all of this is my personal speculation, which seems to fit the pattern of data we are seeing (and we are not seeing much of it).

Tags: Predator Strike, South Waziristan, Zawahiri