Sep 07 2008
I thought the Gallup Daily Tracking Polls was bad enough this today (see here), but the weekend polling – which goes to make up the USA Today/Gallup Poll, was even larger than I expected this soon. In one short week Obama went from a 7 point lead to a 4 point deficit – well outside the margin of error:
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.
Some of the internals are just crushing. The last hope for the Democrats was the economy – but Obama has all but lost his massive lead to McCain in one week:
McCain has narrowed Obama’s wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate’s top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he’s favored by 3.
16 point swing on the last Democrat issue out there. That is horrific news for Obama and the Dems. Can it get worse for Obidenama? Oh hell yes it can – when the survey looks at likely voters Obama is the lead jumps from 3% to 10%!
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/â€” 3 points for both samples.
Ten Points! Obama needed to be 10 points ahead of McCain just to make this look competitive in November. Now we know why Obama is regrouping and pulling back into battleground states. With numbers like this it will not take long for state polls to show Obama falling way behind. Maybe a week.
And what is the root cause of this? Part of it is enthusiasm, but that would not explain a 13 point swing. My guess is the media attacks on Palin has moved most moderate and independent men and women away from Obama. Just check out these two posts (here and here) from liberals regarding the media attacks on Palin. They tell much more of this story than the polls can detect right now.
If this holds the bottom will fall out of the Dems very quickly. Obama really needs a Jesus Christ like miracle about now.