Sep 12 2008
McCain-Palin Wave Still Building
Today’s Rassmussen Daily Tracking Poll numbers may be confirming my prediction that the McCain-Palin wave of support is still building:
McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%. Yesterday, the candidates were tied.
…
It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.
The fact one night of Obama support is being corrected by many nights of McCain support tells me we may still be seeing the building of the wave, not the crest. The period of this wave building is hard to predict without seeing the detailed numbers. Gallup will provide another data point today, but it does take time for the polls to detect these waves. And as Obama and the Dems fail around they may be adding momentum to the wave.
Gallup does adjust it’s voter model breakdown based on who is saying which party they support. Given the new equality on Dem-GOP self identifications, I would expect to see a bit of a jump today. The other data points I think are indicative of the building wave theory are the massive rallies for McCain-Palin, the massive influx of volunteers and money to the GOP side, the panic on the left and the fact the generic ballot polls have tightened way down.
I can only make my predictions based on inferences and assumptions on the internals and how the models are (or are not) being adjusted. I am confident in the coming wave, and only guessing at the actual timing. I could be totally wrong here. Â But even if this is the crest, it is bad news for the dems.
This still bothers me, though:
Obama now enjoys a 193-189 lead in the Electoral College. When “leaners†are included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading 264-247
It takes 270 to win.
You will only see the influence of modeling in “likely voter” polls, which use voter turnout models to analyze raw polling data. These turnout models are proprietary, not published, and nobody knows how often they are adjusted. Daily changes in party ID could influence them, or not. It just depends on the judgment of the people in charge of the model.
From what I understand, however, the turnout models are not tuned that often. They rely upon voter turnout data from many years of elections, and are not reliant upon short-term changes in party ID. Of all of the larger firms, I would expect Gallup’s to be the most conservative in that regard. Zogby, on the other hand, is a bit of a gambler and probably changes his turnout model more often.
According to Fox McCain was on the “View” which I have never watched. It seems they didn’t throw flowers in his path and have a love fest like they did for Obama and Michelle. They started grilling him with really offensive questions within seconds of his appearance. No bias there. All these liberals are killing themselves and don’t seem to realize it. It is never a good thing to alienate half your audience.
Since Charlie Gibson and ABC saw fit to cut portions of Palin’s interview to make her look like a religious zealot I worry about the caliber of questions she will receive as opposed to the ones Biden will get. What I liked about the Saddleback show was that both candidates got the same questions. There was no gotcha like there often is on major networks. Gwen Ifill is supposed to moderate and she is an Obama supporter. She was even handed in the VP debate in 2004 but didn’t have as big a stake then.
All of this is likely to blow up in the Democrats’ faces if they aren’t careful. Troopergate, for example. If they continue pushing that and it becomes widely known in nationally televised hearings that she fired that trooper for tasering an 11-year old child, she will be an American hero. The Democrats are digging themselves deeper and deeper the more they attack Palin.
They can’t see that, of course, because it all validates their pre-conceived notion. But to most average Americans, this Palin bashing is starting to look like something bordering on desperation. And the whole “Jesus was an organizer and Pilate was a governor” meme comes across as ignorant, arrogant, and just plain idiotic. Every time someone says that, McCain’s numbers go UP. The Democrats are blowing it all by themselves.
Obama taking his political speeches from cartoons out of the newspaper doesn’t help either. He is supposed to be LEADING the political debate, not getting his ideas out of the funny papers. What a political idiot!
And the fact that Hollywood and the rest of world wants BHO will not help either. All those countries polled are places our ancestors have fled for good reasons….and not many of us seem to be going back. So I’d say we need neither their love nor respect….and we will still bail them out when their own stupid policies bite them on their arses.
Cross, I agree that the electoral college projections are still worrisome. However, if you look at Rasmussen’s tabulation, you’ll see that the 264 leaning-or-better Obama number includes some states that McCain has a very good chance of taking, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington.
And Rasmussen still shows Virginia as a toss up.
Those 6 states will be the battleground.
This is what I’m wondering. For many, many months people have been listening to Obama, Hillary and McCain, especially the first 2. There were many undecided voters and republicans. Now all of the sudden they are voting for McCain and Palin. This could be for real, they have finally decided on the ticket. So I’m thinking that the leaning is not going away and may even get stronger in fact. I mean really what more can Obama say, get excited about no more drilling, get excited about raising taxes, get excited I’m creating green jobs? He has been talking for a year. McCain can hone his message more which I think he will.
What do you think?
AJ
Your code is grunged up in the post newer than this one.
CP
There are multiple EC models running on the web right now and all have different outcomes.
All depends on how you weight the poll leads.
But most have had Obama go from and 80 or 90 vote lead to a near tie.
The trend is positive for McCain.
Of the ‘battleground’ states, I believe McCain-Palin will take PA, VA and OH; they also have a good shot in MI, IN, CO and NM.
Of the allegedly true-Blue states, I think it’s possible that we’ll see a shift in both MN and IA.
Real Clear Politics moved IN into the ‘leaning towards McCain’ camp today.
[…] is proof of my contention that the Palin wave is still building, and national polls may actually lag the state-by-state polls […]