Sep 15 2008
Palin Wave Continues To Build, Surfacing In NY
Apparently there is a set of shocking polls out from deep blue NY which has both parties shaken about the impact of Sarah Palin on the election dynamics:
The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties – and produced deep worries among Democrats.
One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.
The movement by women toward McCain is being credited to Democratic attacks on Alaska Gov. Palin, last week’s “lipstick on a pig” crack by Obama and to the continuing unhappiness by female Democrats over Obama’s failure to pick Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.
“If it winds up being tight in New York, that means McCain wins the election nationally,” said a prominent Democrat familiar with some of the polling data.
A prominent Republican familiar with the results said, “It really is something, because we just assumed Obama would carry such a heavily Democratic state like New York with no difficulty.”
This is proof of my contention that the Palin wave is still building, and national polls may actually lag the state-by-state polls (which is not typical, but this is not a typical election). There are indications much of this movement is a massive backlash to Obama’s Pig gaffe – which I said would be a killer moment for the campaign.Â
Lot’s of people dismissed the potential impact of that insult, but it is clear a lot of people are fed up with the vitriol that seeps from the Political Industrial Complex,are fed up with the condescending attitude from the same people who have messed up our government that us poor average Americans have no hope of comprehending the problem. The insult was a jab at all those who want change, who want the end of the bickering and childish behavior. In essence, Obama insulted his base of support.
Pollsters are going to be as off balance as anyone else because their models will fight data which shows massive switches. Their models are built on historic data which is useless in this kind of election year. The state polls, closer to the street, will be in the rare position to detect the wave and its scope first.
Hat Tip to Gateway Pundit and Jammie Wearing Fool.
If nothing else, this means that Obama now needs to transfer campaign money to places he thought were safe rather than battleground states like Pennsylvania. Amazing to hear how hard he is fighting for Michigan – that is supposed to be another safe state.
The sunday morning talk shows and columns were rather amazing – they showed that Obama’s theme (coming from several democrat operatives, showing that this was coordinated) was that McCain is old, probably is going to get cancer again (yes, they really said that!) and will die soon, and then this crazy Christian extremist will be President and who wants that? They doubled down on two themes: McCain is old, and We Hate Sarah. And then today Obama’s released a new ad attacking McCain’s “Honor”, as if that will work on anyone.
It’s absolute desperation and paranoia at Camp Obama these days. I’ve never seen a political party commit suicide this quickly, but they’re doing it.
Speculation – I believe Obama himself probably is not the source of this, but he is a very weak, if not spineless man at the core who has no ability to control all of his advisors and handlers who are going nuts and giving 1,000 different pieces of advice as to what to do next. Since this is what being President is all about, this is the perfect test. He’s failing. Miserably.
AJ it is not just Obama’s direct stuff it is the venom coming from the MSM and the nutroots with their over the top tactics.
They have pulled all the stops out and shoved the throttle to the firewall.
Kos is even kicking it up this morning.
HuffPo is turning into a gut churning carpet ride and all the usual suspects on the left have the tinfoil tightened down.
They are starting to realize that a major loss for Obama will take the nutroots to the oblivion they deserve.
Proof to me that his “lipstick on a pig” comment blew up his own campaign.
Obama wants to pretend the comment wasn’t aimed at Palin but it was obvious that the “pig” was the McCain campaign and the “lipstick” was the selection of Palin as running mate.
Imagine the “blowback” if someone made some kind of crack about “watermelon” and the Obama campaign. What Obama did was the same thing when it comes to women. Degrading Palin to nothing more than symbolic “lipstick” on the McCain campaign “pig” has enraged women across the land.
I honestly see no way for him to recover from it. An old rule in marketing: “If you are explaining, you are losing.”
WWS, I think the Pig comment struck a nerve here, the ads about Obama and his Democratic buddies not allowing drilling is very relevant here in Michigan and finally the first rally in Michigan with McCain/Palin was deep in the heart of Reagan Democrat land where the rally was big. Another thing that is going on, the current Detroit Mayor quit and the “Machine” in Detroit is in disarray with people scrambling to keep their jobs with the new incoming administration.
Et tu, New York?…
That banging noise you hear is the sound of Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod hitting his head against his desk at the latest news: The McCain campaign is surging in New York. BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as…
AJ,
What is happening with White Women this election cycle for Democrats is what happened in 1995-96 with the Newt Gingrich Republican Congress.
Women are rejecting the “Politics of Mean.”
The absolute blood thursty political attacks scare and repulse women due both to their high levels of negative emotion and rampant sexism.
Still and all, the Obama campaign is very lucky they did not take Hillary as VP.
The current financial crisis is due to bi-partisan, but mainly Clinton Aministration financial corruption.
If Hillary was on the ticket, there would be no way Obama could avoid blame for the current mess and he would take down ballot Democrats with him.
I don’t understand politics well, and I underestimated the effect this ‘lipstick on pig’ analogy would have.
I could be wrong here, but I would think at least some of the people who would have considered voting for an Obama-Clinton ticket might become interested in Sara Palin.
Anybody know when the deadline is for official filing of the vp’s names?
In other words, is there a deadline for this or can one change their vp candidate the week before the election? I would assume there is a filing deadline for the ballots but am not sure of this. Please advise. 🙂
Ivehadit,
I think the deadline is close or passed. Some states start early voting in Oct (CA IIRC).
AJStrata
I looked up the filing/amendment deadline for Texas, and ran into a curious situation. Texas says filing deadlines are 70 days before an election, which was before the conventions. Bob Barr has been claiming that he’s the only candidate allowed to run in Texas, since neither Obama nor McCain made the filing deadline. HOWEVER, Barr missed the fact that whoever wins the D and R primaries is automatically on the November ballot. And case law allows party ballots to be amended after the filing deadline passes, so the VP candidates are on the ballot even though they weren’t named til after the 70 days passed.
So the deadline for amending the ballot in Texas has probably already passed, unless the dems cry really hard and the Sec. of State feels sorry for them.
Early voting starts here on Oct. 20.
Palin has the support of 75% of Alaska’s Democrats. That should have the DNC’s hair standing on end.
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