Oct 06 2008
Ok, color me totally confused here. Two left leaning (and I mean they tilt sideways) polls have come out showing a shrinking Obama lead. First is the CBS News Poll showing Obama losing half his lead 5 days, going from a +9 (49-40) to a plus +4 (47-43) – that is a statistical tie (MoE is +/- 3%). Â Another shocker in the poll, buried in the internals, McCain went from a -5 (38-43) with independents to a +5 (44-39) in the same 5 days. That is a 10% swing and staggering. Supposedly McCain is losing more Reps (+5) to Obamat than the prior poll, but picking up a lot of new Indies (+10)??? That makes no sense, but if it were to make sense it would push the numbers more towards McCain.
The second poll is from Democracy Corps – a democrat polling group. They have the race also a statistical tie with Obama +3%. Interestingly this poll is weight 40% Dems + 33% GOP, which is a surprise given the heavy democrat sample. This poll, in late July when Obama was leading, showed a +5% lead for Obama. I guess this could be an outlier, with the CBS News Poll.