Oct 07 2008

Why Obama Is Sinking Again In The Polls

Published by at 11:18 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

It seems McCain is not the only one who took a hit in the public eye on the financial bailout – Obama is also starting to lose ground. Two recent polls show the erosion. First is a Democracy Corps poll I noted in an earlier post, which has some interesting internals. On key issues Obama has lost his edge:

  • Shares Your Values: 47-47 (a tie)
  • Independent: 43-46 (+3 McCain)
  • Strong Leader: 42-51 (+9 McCain)
  • Economy: 49-43 (-6 McCain)
  • Stands Up To Special Interests: 45-44 (-1 McCain)
  • National Security: 34-60 (+26 McCain)
  • Financial Crisis: 46-44 (-2 McCain)

What these illustrate is the fact McCain and Obama are becoming equals on economic issues, but McCain is getting kudos for being a strong and independent leader, and huge kudos on national security. 

The second poll is the Diageo/Hotline Poll which also shows massive erosion for Obama:

After trailing by 5-7 pts. for the last 10 days, McCain is now just 2 pts. behind Obama.

Obama’s one-time lead on the question of who’d best handle the economy has evaporated. Today, Obama and McCain are tied at 42%. Independent voters favor McCain on the economy by an 8 pt. margin (42-34%).

That is a precipitous drop going from +7 to +2 (basically a tie) in only a few days. I am not surprised to see this “a pox on both your houses” attitude hitting the public. The ‘bailout’ did not give immediate gratification and stop the hemorrhaging on Wall Street. Dick Morris was right when he predicted the race would tighten, though I doubt even he thought it would be this quick. If Obama loses his edge on the economy he probably cannot pull out a win. Morris may be right on another angle here – Obama peaked too soon.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

11 responses so far

11 Responses to “Why Obama Is Sinking Again In The Polls”

  1. gwood says:

    I would attribute almost all of this swing to the fact that the main-stream media succeeded, at first, to pin the credit mess on capitalism in general, and “wall street” and investment bankers in particular.

    Then the internet, Fox News, and talk radio got out the proof that the whole thing began with congress succumbing to outfits like ACORN, and passed legislation that led to the debacle.

    In a court of law, government would be convicted beyond a shadow of doubt, and capitalism would be acquitted of all charges.

    This whole thing is beginning to backfire on the Dems and the MSM.

  2. Good Captain says:

    Over at Gateway Pundit, a post indicates that 5 – 7 million Hillary voters are supporting McCain. I am not sure how this was derived but even if mildly true, I don’t see how Obama wins.

  3. WWS says:

    McCain has got to make the case in the debate tonite.

    It is unbelievable that everyone is pretending not to notice that the reason Fannie Mae got such sweet congressional deals is that Barney Frank’s gay lover was in the top management, at the same time as Barney Frank was pushing against any further regulation.

    Does McCain have the nerve to point this out???

  4. kittymyers says:

    “5 – 7 million Hillary voters are supporting McCain”

    Those would be Rush’s Operation Chaos voters :~)

  5. Good Captain says:

    Perhaps KM, but a more full statement from the Times Leader of NE PA says,”

    “Barack Obama has never had the mandate of Democrats,” she said. “And Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi ignored the 18 million people that voted for Hillary Clinton. They can’t be surprised at the 5 million to 7 million Clinton supporters who are now supporting McCain.”

    One organization – PUMA, which stands for Party Unity My Ass – has more than 5 million members across the country, she said.”

    This suggests stronger affiliation to the Democratic Party (under “normal” circumstances) than Operation Chaos voters to me. Its something to keep in the back of your mind.

  6. AJ,

    Rep. Barney Frank’s rant that critisizing a Democratic Congress is “Racist” regards it’s handling of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac is indirect, but strong, evidence that the Democrats’ internal polls are tanking.

    Frank’s statement was targeted at the Democratic base, and tends to offend independents.

    This means something.

    Watch for more signs from this direction.

  7. AJ,

    Look more closely at this CBS poll listed at one of the NRO blogs here:

    http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2QxNzA5ODVjZjM0NDg4NmQ0NWQ5ZTM1NjE3ZTI4ZWU=

    and here:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/06/opinion/polls/main4504633.shtml

    If the party ID split, with the internals listed, is only 4%, then it’s McCain by a hair in the popular vote.

    If it’s 3%, McCain wins the national vote by almost a percentage point.

  8. AJStrata says:

    Trent,

    I agree with you, they scream loudest when they are in serious pain.

    AJStrata

  9. [...] Reader Trent Telenko pointed me to an interesting historic analysis of Party ID trends over the last 20 years: That’s worth repeating — in the best year for Democrats in congressional races since 1974, the partisan makeup of the electorate was 3 percent, and every major poll overestimated the party ID gap. [...]

  10. Terrye says:

    I do not know what to think anymore. Gallup and Rasmussen still have Obama with a lead of about 8, but these polls are a lot less.

  11. AJStrata says:

    Terrye,

    It could simply mean Rasmussen and Gallup have inertia built into them, it takes them longer to detect changes. I have seen this many times where one lags the other.

    Right now Rasmussen is pushing up to 15% of his undecideds one way or the other. This hides the real solid numbers, which I bet are tied.