Oct 07 2008
Ohio Early Voting Bad Omen For Obama In November – 80% Of His Voters Are AWOL
McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!
People have to understand how national campaigns will avoid the look of failure at all costs. In the case of novice Barack Obama this is all the more important since confidence in him is as fragile as a spun sugar figurine. So when Obama’s camp predicted a huge windfall of votes in Ohio’s early registration/voting window they were being VERY conservative in their estimation of what they could produce. Trust me, they low-balled what they thought they could do.
So, when we see the abject failure of the Obama campaign to get any significant numbers out to vote, falling below 20% of their low-ball predictions, one can see the wheels falling off the arrogant O-Bomba Express:
As of Monday evening with polling sites still open, projections were that about 4,000 to 5,000 voters in the state’s four largest counties would have taken advantage of the policy, which survived multiple court challenges.
…
Overall, between 20,000 and 25,000 people were expected to have voted early in person in the four counties, beginning Sept. 30.
That is a stunning 80% no-show! Is anyone still buying those ridiculously optimistic polls with 10+% differences in party ID? Is anyone going to be suckered (for the umpteenth time) that the youth vote will come out to save the Dems? Is anyone going to believe all those rock band crowds -Â like Springsteen in Ohio this week -Â are really there due to their adulation for Obama? Heck, Springsteen attracted 2-2.5 times as many people to his one Ohio State concert than Obama got to the polls!
Pullleeasse. Obama’s campaign probably cut their internal estimates in half when they produced that 20-25,000 number, and they still fell 80% short. The Obama camp is all hype, and now I understand why he wants to claim ‘underdog’ status today. He is probably ahead in the fantasy polls and really in trouble when it comes to getting polling samples to vote. At least that is the lesson I see from Ohio today.
McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!
I sure hope you’re right AJ. If so and McCain wins there will be riots in the streets say he stole the election from Obama. Maybe that’s the set up!
The real question is whether anyone is showing up early to vote for McCain.
In my heart of hearts I don’t think McCain knows how to win a campaign. He lost to President Bush, and that says something. The only good thing is that a Democrat, has no way of fixing what is wrong economically or win the war on terror. My hope is that enough people realize it. Democrats do better after a republican when all is well with the country.
People will realize it in 4 years after everything has been destroyed. Too bad we won’t have a country or a constitution left by then.
AJ,
A friend of mine (who was a political operative “semi-pro”) has speculated that Democrats “hit the wall” as far as Democratic turn out in heavily Democratic areas (urban areas & college towns) was concerned in 2004.
And that it would take several election cycles to build up competitive Democratic Party local organization in the exurban areas that Republicans used to take Ohio and other swing states. Based on what he said when he saw that piece, it looks like the Obama voter turn out machine is not turning out early Democratic voters in Ohio because it does not have real local grass roots.
I think the Obama campaign’s reliance on phone banks pointed to in that story is both surprising and a mistake given the anti-telemarketer backlash with the public.
The Republican GOTV machine in 2004 did not rely on cold calling, it relied on local people going out, meeting other local people they knew or met through church and taking them to the polls.
It looks like the Obama GOTV machine is not doing that as far as early voting in Ohio is concerned. It is very doubtful that the Republican “mirco-targeting” GOTV effort will work without *real locals*, as opposed to urban and college town Democrats.
We shall see what election day holds in the ex-urbs and elsewhere, but what we are seeing now even in heavily Democratic areas of Ohio is not what Obama marketed about his GOTV machine.
“The real question is whether anyone is showing up early to vote for McCain.”
Maybe. Maybe not. But thousands will show up early to vote for Sarah. If McC wins he has Sarah to thank.
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Grrr…
That should have read:
It is very doubtful that the Republican STYLE “mirco-targeting†GOTV effort will work without *real locals*, as opposed to urban and college town Democrats.
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