Oct 25 2008
Something big is happening in Northern Virginia. I have been out of the country for a week and I came back home to the place I was born, raised and where I raised my family to find I did not recognize it. The area has become obsessed with the presidential election! There are signs everywhere and it looks to be a dead heat between McCain and Obama.
Why is this abnormal? We live inside the DC Political Industrial Complex. Politics is as normal as Starbucks and McDonalds around here. People rarely get that jazzed up to the point of strewing signs across every yard. Many folks also work in the federal government and tend to keep their views pretty much low key.Â
So when I came back and saw the battle of the lawn sign raging like I have never seen in my adult life I was stunned.Â
Even more news greeted my return which surprised me and gave me hope. LJStrata (my better half) and DJStrata (oldest daughter) attended the Fairfax County GOP Organization Meeting with district chairs and precinct captains working with volunteers to Get Out The Vote (GOTV). The meeting drew around 400-500 hundred people and stunned the coordinators, who have never seen turnout like this on the GOP side. And the GOP has been the best at this for years.
To put this in context I am told that Obama has 400 paidÂ GOTV leaders in the entire state of Virginia. I get the feeling that we are going to, once again, see the difference in intensity between the paid activists and the motivated volunteer.
DJStrata also attended the Obama rally in Leesburg, VA last week an noticed something very strange. 10,000 people attended the Obama rally, but almost half of them left halfway through his speech. At McCain-Palin rallies people keep coming all the way to the end.
I am going to be making a prediction on VA based on the crowd size of the Palin event at Leesburg this coming Monday. Back in September McCain-Palin attracted 23,000 in the center of Fairfax County (Fairfax City to be exact). This is an area Obama cannot afford to lose or even tie in. He has to win big and I am not sure it is happening for him.
Yes, I can see the polls, but I keep seeing independent data that shows Palin may be turning this race around on the ground. I think there is a wave building against the DC/NY Political Industrial Complex(PIC) – which is definitely the target of the public’s ire regarding that 90% wrong track polling. And the Democrat Congress is also highly visible in that wrong track number and a major part of the NY/DC PIC.
So when Americans see a ticket with two Democrat members of Congress on it they have to be wondering what is the point? And then there is the Maverick Senator and his outsider VP. Governor Sarah Palin is one of us normal Americans who simply rolled up her sleeves and tried to make things better – and succeeded. The NY/DC PIC has been in full arrogant apoplexy that one of the common folks has dared to try and brake into national leadership. The crap that spewed from the left and right at Governor Palin and her family was just the kind of crap Americans are fed up with coming from the PIC on ANY subject, let alone targeted at We The People.
Let’s see how the Palin rally does, and if it does well I think I would be ready to declare the polls aÂ lost cause and a November VA surprise here in the Commonwealth.
Update: I meant to point out that, according to Gallup, the early voting is not benefitting Obama at all:
This data is interesting because it begins to look at votes cast, it is the first of the exit data. And contrary to the bottom line numbers in the Gallup turnout models, which show Obama up anywhere from +5% to +12%, in actual votes cast or planned to be cast he is tied! Now how is that mathematically possible? It really shouldn’t be possible. The exit polls in the same survey should mimic the survey bottom line – but the don’t. This is another mathematical indication the pollsters have totally lost the pulse of the electorate.
And recall that Obama’s vaunted GOTV effort in Ohio fell horribly short during an early voting window that was tailored made to get him massive new votes. He only got 20% of his target then, which is one of the problems with targeting non-traditional voters. They are non-traditional for a reason.
Update: I should also note the one thing the Obama GOTV effort seems to be wasting its time with is destruction of McCain-Palin signs. As noted at Powerline, many GOP signs are mangled and ripped apart (only to be replaced or fixed). This is not going unnoticed by the voters.