Oct 19 2008
The Slow Tightening Of The Race
With two plus weeks to go before voting things might finally be turning John McCain’s way. I have predicted this race would go down to the decisions made by voters on election day, and that seems to be the case. However, I am not overly confident at this moment, just noting the data is turning more positive.
I let myself mathematically convince myself the Dems would not take both houses in 2006. For the data I had I was pretty close, but what I did not have was all the data. And so I was convinced the GOP would ride out the storm in one house (the senate). Well I was wrong.
So I do not plan to repeat that mistake this year. WIth that said let’s look at some data. First off, everyone should be reading DJ Drummond, who knows his math, especially his statistics. He has been posting excellent analyses on the polls and his conclusions align well with mine.
And one of those conclusions is Gallup has proven, beyond any doubt, the polls have no idea what is happening. Gallup’s three model results are an indication of surrender – each provide a different result with 95% confidence and a margin of error of +/- 2%. Yet they don’t fall within their own margin of errors! Therefore we have three models which show, with 95% confidence, no one knows what is happening. What is clear is that Obama’s trend is that of a shrinking lead.
First take a look at the wildly optimistic ‘expanded’ model which has given Obama some healthy leads. Obama’s 10 point lead in this model is down to 4 points. Â The ‘traditional model’ at one point had a 7% lead for Obama, that is down to 2%. It is interesting that the most optimistic Gallup model for Obama is now tightening – along with most other polls.Â
RCP has cleared its poll of polls of garbage like the CBS News/New York Times pol showing a laughable 14% Obama lead. In doing so and sticking with the tracking polls Obama’s one time 8.2% national lead is down to 4.9%.
Now, back to be cautious. There have been some interesting tidbits out and about on the early voting results. As we know Obama did really badly in energizing his new voters in Ohio. But there are reports of Obama doing well in early voting:
Voting in some battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, has been under way since mid-September. That coincides with McCain’s slide in the opinion polls. Florida and Colorado began voting this week.
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In North Carolina, which only weeks ago had been seen as a sure bet for the Republicans, Obama had a 34% lead among the 5% of the electorate who took part in early voting, according to exit polls.
The same scenario was unfolding in another state once seen as an unlikely prospect for the Democrats: Indiana. Among the 14% of voters who have already cast their ballots, Obama was leading by 34%, exit polls predicted. In Georgia, seen as a staunchly Republican state, Obama had a 6% advantage among early voters. Some 18% of the electorate had cast their ballots at the time of the survey.
Exit polls, as we know, can be quite dodgy. Just ask President Kerry. On the flip side here are some comments by a person respected by many conservative bloggers (who I do not know at all) supposedly with inside information:
Hah! Of course. Susa is showing a Florida lead for Mac now that they are using the RIGHT turnout model for Florida (GOP+4). Look at the early voters. Mac is getting the early vote in Florida. That’s bad news for Obama because (look at the primaries), Obama relies on the early vote but Mac has an 8 point lead in those that say they’ve already voted! {I am guessing it’s military absentees for the most part}
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PA looks very shakey for Obama at least per the campaign sources I am reading (from both parties).
-Polaris
Actually I was able to find a news article confirming the Florida situation:
“We have good people, both staff and volunteers, who have been here before. They’ve been in tough elections, close elections every two years for 10 years,” said Mike DuHaime, McCain’s political director. “(Obama’s) got more money, he’s got more staff, he’s got more offices. We’ve got a better candidate. In terms of the turnout operation, we’ve got better technology and a battle-tested organization.”
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“Right now the thing that I feel the best about Florida, we have a pretty sizable absentee ballot lead,” DuHaime said. “When you start looking at the data of real people actually voting, I feel good about it.”
Given Obama’s historic money edge, bringing in as much money in September as twice McCain’s entire public financing budget for the general election. Given that edge and the fact the Political Industrial Complex is lining up behind Obama, one has to wonder why he hasn’t sealed the deal. Are Americans going to go to an untested, inexperienced candidate who has less applicable experience than any of the other 3 candidates. Â It may be the epitome of historic irony for the Democrats to finally learn you cannot simply throw money at a problem!
And another history lesson on polls. As Obama himself noted this week polls may be complete fantasies, as he and the nation learned in NH. Obama was up 8-13% in many polls (see RCP average) before the primary. Hillary won by 2.5% – that is a huge shift. Anything can happen.
I think polls will tighten more as news of his cabinet gets out as reported on Townhall.com. Chuch Hagel (the surge won’t work and let’s surrender) for defense and John Kerry ( we need a global test for American decisions) for state. That’s a Halloween scare if ever I heard one.
And, where did that $150 mil in September come from to Obama during a supposedly financial meltdown….why do I smell Iran and Soros here.
People do not like what the media and Dems have done to that plumber that had the nerve to disagee with the Messiah’s plan. Well, if he does win and has the Dem Congress behind him I guess we will meet in the re-education camps where we will wear our blue Obama pins and learn to chant and bow to “The One”
I’m a huge McCain-Palin cheerleader, and I agree with you about the polls.
However, I have to confess that Obama reporting $150,000,000.00 in September has me a bit nervous.
He can afford to stick his lying, manipulative campaign ads on every single commercial break during every prime time show on every network from now until the election.
That has to be worth a few points in the polls, no?
Or do you think he’ll make another mistake with those ads that McCain can parry with something like the “Celebrity” ad earlier this year. He just might be arrogant enough, but I’d hate to count on it.
I think that the only thing that can save McCain is that there are thousands of voters who usually don’t vote, or are sometimes voters, that will vote for McCain because of Sarah Palin.
AJ, I have never found the RCP average to be particularly accurate anyway, in my experience it has been a bit optimistic such as before the 2006 elections.
Rasmussen has been closer.
In this day and age of do not call lists and hustle bustle world I am not sure that 24/7 ads or huge program block buys by 0B0mba are going to be a plus .
People who are thinkers and busy will resent the money spending and constant indoctrination and the over-sell by team 0B0mber and wonder why it would take such a push if he were really someone qualified and popular.
One thing I find interesting is that the media is highlighting the fact that Democrats are voting in large numbers. The clear assumption is that this is good for Obama. I think that’s a mistake. A lot of Hillary voters are very angry about the way the Democrat primaries were handled. There is also a backlash to the reports of ACORN vote registration fraud. Finally, the reactions of Obama and Biden to Joe the Plumber have riled a lot of people that usually vote Democrat.
I don’t pretend to know what will happen this election cycle, but I think it’s a mistake to think that high Democrat turnout means high margins for Obama. It could be just the opposite.
Come on, AJ… Surely you wrote this before Colin Powell endorsed Senator Obama… A man who could have been elected President if nominated by either party in 2000… Game 100% over. [4-5% Powell effect off the top of my head] I have yet to hear the Meet the Press interview so perhaps I speak from a little ignorance but to this Marine, [although I am still 100% McCain] Colin Powell’s word carries monstrous impact. All we can do now is try and hold the line in the Senate… as House and Presidency are poised for a hard left turn… [and, btw, 2-3 liberal Supreme Court Justices prepping in the wings]
[…] read AJ Strata’s excellent analysis of the polls.…and DJ Drummond’s […]
Personally I’m not very impressed to hear that Colin Powell just endorsed Barack Obama. My reaction was like, “Oh look, another Washington insider for Obama. Yeah, that makes me want to overlook the fact that Obama said he wanted to “spread the wealth around” and that Joe the Plumber is now being attacked as a way to distract us from what Obama said, and run right down to the voting booth and pull the lever for the Obamanable Man.”
Come on, are people out in the middle of the country really going to put THAT much stock in what Colin Powell says?
You know, maybe we’ll lose this one, but it sure as hell doesn’t do us a bit of good to dwell on it before the end of the game.
Colin Powell’s endorsement?
Not me! His endorsement is not going to sway any votes. Many dems and reps lost interest and trust in him.
My mind’s eye last picture of Powell….. he was talking to the UN with Tenent sitting behind him, telling the world why we should go into Iraq, how dangerous their weapons of mass distractions were to the world. If I remember correctly he had spent 3 days at the CIA combing every inch of information with a fine tooth comb for his presentation. The world was with us, well the French betrayed Powell, but we already had forces in place and it would have looked a little weak to turn tail and come home leaving Sadham in place with all those weapons.
So Powell endorses Obama, the man who said Bush got us into a war of choice, the blunder of the century and has cost this country billions a month. That Bush lied to the American people to get us where we are, and he will get us out. Of course it is easy for Barack Obama to say anything he choses as he was not privy to the intelligence that the Senate had, as he was a congressman from Chicago.
Perhaps the people of America think this is Bush’s war and forget that the Secretary of State was Colin Powell in 2004, he had the same information that Bush had on how the war was going in that “his man” in Iraq was Bremmer. The State Department demanded that they take over from Defense after Sadhams fall, and they did.
So I’m thinking that Powell’s endorsement of Obama is a big so what, a little like Biden trying to pretend he really didn’t support the war. Surely middle America has followed the events of the war as many of their friends and associates are warriors. How can Powell add stature to Obama when his whole candidacy is about “I’m against this reckless war”.
AJ,
As I said before, I’m a big fan of Intrade.com which shows Obama winning by a landslide. It always struck me as wrong.
Now according to ElectoralMap.net:
“If the state-by-state elections were independent events, the Intrade probabilities would translate to an overall 1.2% chance of John McCain winning the election.”
I’m no math whiz, but looking at the main trades for McCain and Obama, it always struck me as being out of sync. Now, I think this election is going to be a lot closer, and might not be settled until a long time after November 4th.
Thanks,
No mention of voter fraud and how much effect it will have on the vote.
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I’ve got two questions.
First, how much money has the RNC raised in September?
Second, when are they going to spend it?
I would say to many of us powell is one big bowl of revenge and sour grapes….for what he perceives as his worst day: in front of the UN.
He’s entitled to only be right. Never wrong.
Also, two words I have for powell: Armitage/Libby. Where’s the honor?
You would think Obama was the first black Democrat to run for President from all the hoopla.
I am with kathie on this. America is going to support Obama because of Powell? I don’t see that. Powell also endorsed Bush, remember, he was in fact a member of his cabinet.
I think Powell is looking out for himself..
I don’t know what is going to happen. Obama has enough money to blanket TV and radio etc. But then again, maybe people will get sick and tired of him by election. I know I am.
ivehadit:
Also there is the fact that Powell had history with Saddam that went back further than Bush’s did. If he really did not feel right about what he was saying, he should have spoken up or resigned. But in fact Colin Powell wanted Saddam gone.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Barack Obama’s lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race has dropped to 3 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.
Obama leads McCain by 48 to 45 percent among likely U.S. voters, down 1 percentage point from Saturday. The four-day tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points.
“If that trend continues, it is something that has got to raise red flags for Obama,” Zogby said. “It suggests to me that his outward look of confidence may be as much strategy as it is real.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49G0V320081019?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true
Joe Biden expects the polls to drop this week because undecideds are racists?
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voters are “having a difficult time” opting for the man who would become the nation’s first African American president.
“Undecided people are having a difficult time just culturally making the change, making the move for the first African American president ….
“Mark my words, you’re going to see these polls drop this week,” Biden forecasted.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/biden-voters-ha.html