Jan 01 2009
Historic Global Cooling Possible
Fate has a habit of slapping down human arrogance in a such a manner as to establish historic examples of how mankind should not take itself too seriously. This decade’s lesson on hubris will be tied to the man-made Global Warming fanatics led by Al Gore and the UN’s IPCC. For nearly 3 decades these people have been crying the end of the world is nigh because of runaway Global Warming caused by increases in CO2 levels caused by mankind.Â
What these fanatics never admit is that the record warmth in the late 20th century, which peaked in 1998, is not the hottest period mankind has experienced in the last 5,000 years. Nor was it the second hottest, or even the third hottest. As the following historic chart shows, the top three warm periods in the last 5,000 years coincide with massive advancements in mankind’s civilization.
The hottest and longest period of warmth was during the Bronze age, when the Minoans were leading humankind into a new era. The second place warm spell, which was about as warm but much shorter was during the Roman Empire, another period where humanity advanced significantly. The 3rd warmest spike in global temperatures was in the Medieval times right before the Dark Ages – when the Little Ice Age brought disease and famine and heartache to the world.
The Little Ice Age was the coolest period of the last 5,000 years, and we have been slowly warming up ever since. The thawing from the Little Ice Age brought humanity the Renaissance, the Industrial Age, the Computer Age and the Internet Age. As usual, when we are not required to fight for survival we have the opportunities to grow and evolve.
Now fate is preparing to slap all humanity down with a heavy reminder of how large and dominating nature is, and how small and helpless mankind is. If people though Katrina was a powerful act of nature, we may on the verge of seeing something even more humbling. And it will not be Global Warming:
As we’ve noted, 2008 has been a year of records for cold and snowfall and may indeed be the coldest year of the 21st century thus far. In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month of October.
Global thermometers stopped rising after 1998, and have plummeted in the last two years by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius. The 2007-2008 temperature drop was not predicted by global climate models. But it was predictable by a decline in sunspot activity since 2000.
When the sun is active, it’s not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop near zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins. But this year, the start of a new cycle, the sun has been eerily quiet.
The first seven months averaged a sunspot count of only three and in August there were no sunspots at all — zero — something that has not occurred since 1913.
According to the publication Daily Tech, in the past 1,000 years, three previous such events — what are called the Dalton, Maunder and Sporer Minimums — have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called the Little Ice Age (1500-1750).
We know there has been a decade of cooling since 1998, which has accelerated this year. We have seen the solar activity drop and the world’s ocean currents respond as predicted prior to a large cooling off. There are now many scientists who think we may see at least two decades of cooling – maybe more.Â
While I like to be right, I don’t like to be right to the point vast numbers of humanity suffer to make the point. But if we are heading into a cooling period with a shrinking economy, things my get a lot worse before they get better. And all the while humanity will marvel at the silly arrogance of those who once claimed to be all-knowing and able to predict the future with perfection.
And to think it all comes down to those strange sunspots. Maybe if people understood the scale of sunspots they would understand why their absence can have such a huge effect on the Earth. I have found something to help humanity gain that perspective – and a good dose of humility as well.
A size comparison of the Earth to common sun spots
Great post AJ.
The complete vilification of CO2 is the weapon with which the left is attempting to eradicate capitalism. It will be no small victory if we can succeed in turning back the tide.
I consider the switch from “global warming” to “global climate change”, though only a semantic switch, a very significant win for those of us who revere capitalism.
The main reason civilizations have prospered during warm times has to do with agriculture and food supply. I believe we would fare far better in the next cooling cycle because of the technologies we have now that weren’t available during previous cooling periods.
The Obama administration will attempt to regulate CO2, after all, he is obviously not fond of capitalism, and he will look extremely silly doing so. The common folk are beginning to sense that this global warming thing is a complete hoax, largely because scientists are beginning to dissent, and blog posts like yours are getting the truth out.
Perhaps this issue can become a political winner for our side?
It’s not surprising ordinary people don’t have a basic understanding of how this works. A friend of ours was over last night and it is obvious that people have been completely misled by the media who have some serious scientific illiteracy issues to deal with.
Not one single prediction about “Global Warming” has come true. The computer models are as effective as those used to predict the stock market, meaning they are completely worthless — that is unless you count shooting an arrow at the side of the barn, then painting the bulls-eye around the arrow. Look, we got a good prediction!
It would be funny, except for the fact that the “cure” being proffered by the enviros will itself lead to mass starvation and poverty.
Or, you know, you could ask the people who know what they are talking about.
Guy:
And who would that be? I have heard so many experts say so many contradictory things on this subject, I don’t think we can be sure who and does not know what they are talking about.
I myself, hope there is a freak blizzard in DC when Obama puts his hand on Lincoln’s bible. I just hope it does not burst into flames.
I do know that the Weather Channel is really invested in this whole global warming thing. Why just the other day they compared the number of record high days to the number of record low days. That is really scientific.
The truth is there are a lot more days in the year when there could be record highs than there are when there could be record lows. Not exactly scientific method there.
But I guess if this whole global warming thing is true, then Obama will not have to drive up our light bills like he promised, or bankrupt coal like he promised. In fact, the environmentalists are probably pretty happy about the idea of global recession.
Oh, the EPA, last I heard they were worrying about cow farts.
Guy,
Are you really going to take the word of some bureaucrat over that of hundreds of scientists?
man, you really are gullible and easy to fool.
[…] 2. Global Colling and Decline in Sunspot Activity […]
[…] said last fall, if predictions of massive and steep global cooling (based on solar sunspot activity and the solar cycle) were true the world population would soon be welcoming any concept of warming. When temperatures […]
Just a few thought on Global Warming–I capitalized it for Al (global warming) Gore. Its such a big thing to him and his stock in GE. And as he often says, “the debate is over–this issue is settled.” How closed-minded can a so-called open-minded person be—its the height of hypocrisy. Oh well, I expect that from a liberal(sorry, progressive), they have abandomed that word–like rats on the sinking boat liberalism was. Enough of that–back to global warming. Some good points were made in this article, I would like to add a little on the scientific side. Years ago, I took a basic coarse on Astromony. I recall an interesting point (the earth is closer to the sun in the winter than in the summer, for us in the northern hemisphere) this is due to the elipical orbit of the earths path around the sun. This by itself doesn’t attract much attention until we bring in another factor (precession). The average man may was what!! I’ll try to explain. The earth has a 25 thousand year cycle called precession. Right now if you were standing at the north pole (yes, you would be cold) and looked directly over head, your zenith, there you would see Polaris (the north star). For all practical purposes it doesn’t move as the earth rotates–hence a good navigational tool in days gone by. But guess what, in 12,500 years from now if you are standing in that same spot it want be directly overhead–no it didn’t move, the earth did. Have you ever watched a spinning top, it spins much the same as the earth rotates on its axis. In addition to its spinning it rotates in another way–the long axis of the top also rotates. The earth does the same–only this rotation instead of 24 hours takes 25 thousand years to complete. This is precession. So what does this mean? Remember earlier I told you the earth(north hemisphere) was closer to the sun in the winter now, well guess what–in 12,500 years from now it will be farther from the sun in the winter. Could than mean another ice age? I don’t know–just throwing this out for you to think about. Personally, I do believe that precession has something to do with ice ages and then the warming periods.
[…] note: these apocalyptic claims are, at worst, arguable. The globe is actually cooling these days. (More.) And as for the economy — does anyone happen to remember the late […]