Jul 07 2009
Update: Reader Crosspatch noticed a dire prediction of 14% unemployment as the possible result of Obamanomics (with help from Reid and Pelosi):
The BEA numbers (which were revised slightly on June 25) show an accelerating decline in â€œreal nonresidential fixed investmentâ€. This measure decreased 37.3 percent in the first quarter of 2009, compared with a fall of 21.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. Given that employment is a direct, linear function of private business investment (PBI), unemployment can be expected to rise much farther in the months ahead.
The unemployment rate a year ago was 5.5%. Because the potential labor force is growing, we need employment to increase by 1% annually to keep the unemployment rate from going up. The 37.9% investment decline reported by the BEA can be expected to eventually produce a reduction in total employment of about 8.5%. Accordingly, we can expect unemployment to rise to about 14% within a year unless the downward slide of PBI is reversed.
Bill Kristol really nailed the DC-NY Political Industrial Complex when he talked about Sarah Palin’s future in national politics:
It’s silly to claim Palin has no chance to win the nomination or the presidency. The fact is, despite a rough campaign in 2008, Palin has been (for what it’s worth at this stage) a co-front-runner in polls of GOP primary voters for 2012, along with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In a recent Pew survey, she had the strongest favorable-unfavorable numbers of the likely candidates among Republicans.
She has fervent supporters, which would presumably help her in primaries and caucuses. Among the general public, she has a not-great but not-unmanageable 45-44 favorability rating.
She’ll be able to make the case effectively that she should be the nominee, or she won’t.
The odds are that she won’t — just as the odds at this point are against any one of the GOP candidates. It’s a wide-open race. And Palin may not even run. But the panic among mainstream media commentators and the GOP establishment suggests real worry that if she does, she might pull off an upset. Why else the vehement assertions that she’s clearly made a terrible mistake? Why else the categorical insistence that her political career is finished? Aren’t they all protesting too much?
Because it means Main Street America is ready to take over. Those who make a good living around politics see their turf about to be over run by ‘amateurs’ – which means us. They see it in the blogosphere, which has them really rattled. They see it in a Sarah Palin grass roots movement. They saw it in an Obama grass roots movement.Â
When the time comes and Sarah is back to massing enormous crowds as she vies to be the first woman President, these suck ups will change their tune. They will have to. If they had just let her have a clear shot they would not be reaping the wrath of people like me. And that includes people like Fred Barnes and Charles Krauthammer who were so dismissive on Fox’s Special Report I doubt I will be tuning in again for a few months.
Here’s the rub – these snobs are stomping on the American dream. It was what helped propel Obama into office, the idea of someone outside the beltway belchers could come to DC and clean it up. That has been the undercurrent since Bill Clinton, come in and clean it up. McCain and Obama ran on the theme and the turnout was massive.
American’s want to believe anyone from their street (even them), could find fate asking them to lead and/or succeed. By dismissing Palin until she takes some useless side steps (like a stint in Congress? Ain’t goint to happen boys) all these people are doing is signaling America we are not good enough to decide on politics.Â
In any other specialty that argument may hold, not politics. Not in this country. We don’t have a political class like in Europe, and we don’t want one. Palin will reap support because she is a woman, a mother of a typical American family, a successful person AND because the political establishment fears her. If the screw ups in DC are scared, good!
And not only will Sarah be a force to reckon with in the 2012 primaries, she could easily win Â against Obama, who by that time will have screwed up so badly on the economy everyone will be wishing him well in retirement:
The economy is shaping up to be Barack Obama’s Katrina.Â If President George W. Bush was blamed for his slow response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 — there was plenty of blame to go around, of course, but the disaster was on Bush’s watch–then Obama will get the blame for his slow response to the current recession.Â Â The difference, of course, is that Katrina afflicted a city and a few states, while the recession afflicts the whole country.
Unemployment is 9.5 percent and rising fast, certain to go higher than 10 percent.Â Â And what is the federal government doing about it?Â Not much.Â Â And so House Republican Leader John Boehner makes a good point when he asks,Â “Where are the jobs?”
On Sunday,Â Vice President Joe Biden said that the Obama administration had “misread” the economic indicators.Â So what are they likely to do about it?Â More of the same–which is to say, not much.
There is no fixing the economy in time to save Obama or the dems. Obama is flashy and well packaged, but he doesn’t keep his word. He is, in fact, not trustworthy when we listen to what he says. He is a slick promoter. And he will soon be seen as an abysmal failure. In fact, I will wager now he runs on national security, touting his continuation of Bush policies in Iraq and Afghanistan when he does run – because that is all he will have left.
The economy will turn up for Wall Street by 2012. It won’t for Main Street. We here on Main Street still vastly out number those fat cats on Wall Street. This doesn’t take a rocket scientist.
As Obama and the Democrats failed policies continue to play out for months and months, as foreclosures continue to rise, and as unemployment plays with 11%, Obama will come crashing down to Earth. Obama cannot win California if Palin runs. California is already at 11.5% unemployment, they could reach 14% or higher. Obama will not win Michigan or Oregan – two other leaders in job losses. A northwestern family woman riding into to town to clean house will appeal to these states over a failed Obama. The unsinkable Molly Brown may ride again.
Electorally Obama cannot win as things are going now, unless the GOP puts up another far right, angry old white guy. And when it comes down to it, no one cares about those losers in the Political Industrial Complex, they care about this nation and their families.
Here is something I predicted back in February of this year:
Spendulus has passed. America as seen the largest theft of money by ideologues in its history. No war ever caused this to happen. And the so called â€™stimulus billâ€™ has very little real stimulus in it. What there is is not enough to turn the economy around, and the spending doesnâ€™t really kick in until the summer of 2010 – at which time the mood of the country should be just about right to evict the Dems from Congress and repeal this mess before it can do the long term damage the CBO predicts it will do.
What will be interesting to see is what else does Congress and Obama have to do now – right? They have raided the treasury to a historic level. The coffers are all empty (for decades to come). Theoretically they should sit back and watch the magic happen!
But will they? I find it interesting that in Congress more Dems voted against this bill (7) than Republicans voted for it (3). By the Fourth of July, when the job market still sucks, some Roosters are coming home to Roost on the Democrats.
This country will continue to bleed red ink at never before seen rates, and the economy will not be responding. The stimulus bill, has I have noted over and over, is not getting the money into the economy to generate jobs.
…Â but I suspect the bleak state of the sluggish federal governmentâ€™s liberal experiment on socialistic spending is heading for spectacular failure. The DC liberals actually do believe the fantasy that government spending can turn around an ailing economy, that racking up massive debt doesnâ€™t drain the capitol out of the markets, and that raising taxes on businesses doesnâ€™t cut jobs. I mean, they really did believe this fantasy!
It is now the 4th of July and we will soon see the state unemployment numbers. They will send a shock through the Political Industrial Complex in DC. As I noted below, the full unemployment picture right now, as measured by the federal government, is 16.4% without a job or only working part time. If the 9.5% represents 6.7 million people, then the 16.4% represents 11.5 million voters (yes, workers do vote) who are getting really upset. And these numbers are now unavoidably going to grow into 2010.
The momentum behind this economic screw up is so large there is nothing the dems can do to stop it now. They sealed their fate. Why not have Sarah Palin come in and help guide a new generation of leaders to take control? We couldn’t do any worse than the crop of parasites in place now.