Jul 07 2009

I’m With Kristol On Palin – Kinda Of

Published by at 8:38 am under Measuring The Recovery

Update: Reader Crosspatch noticed a dire prediction of 14% unemployment as the possible result of Obamanomics (with help from Reid and Pelosi):

The BEA numbers (which were revised slightly on June 25) show an accelerating decline in “real nonresidential fixed investment”. This measure decreased 37.3 percent in the first quarter of 2009, compared with a fall of 21.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. Given that employment is a direct, linear function of private business investment (PBI), unemployment can be expected to rise much farther in the months ahead.

The unemployment rate a year ago was 5.5%. Because the potential labor force is growing, we need employment to increase by 1% annually to keep the unemployment rate from going up. The 37.9% investment decline reported by the BEA can be expected to eventually produce a reduction in total employment of about 8.5%. Accordingly, we can expect unemployment to rise to about 14% within a year unless the downward slide of PBI is reversed.

H/T Blue Crab Boulevard The full unemployment numbers could reach 21%! Which is depression like levels. As I note below, there is no avoiding years of economic pain on the middle and lower class, which means Obama will be a one term disaster like Carter was. - end update

Bill Kristol really nailed the DC-NY Political Industrial Complex when he talked about Sarah Palin’s future in national politics:

It’s silly to claim Palin has no chance to win the nomination or the presidency. The fact is, despite a rough campaign in 2008, Palin has been (for what it’s worth at this stage) a co-front-runner in polls of GOP primary voters for 2012, along with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In a recent Pew survey, she had the strongest favorable-unfavorable numbers of the likely candidates among Republicans.

She has fervent supporters, which would presumably help her in primaries and caucuses. Among the general public, she has a not-great but not-unmanageable 45-44 favorability rating.

She’ll be able to make the case effectively that she should be the nominee, or she won’t.

The odds are that she won’t — just as the odds at this point are against any one of the GOP candidates. It’s a wide-open race. And Palin may not even run. But the panic among mainstream media commentators and the GOP establishment suggests real worry that if she does, she might pull off an upset. Why else the vehement assertions that she’s clearly made a terrible mistake? Why else the categorical insistence that her political career is finished? Aren’t they all protesting too much?

Because it means Main Street America is ready to take over. Those who make a good living around politics see their turf about to be over run by ‘amateurs’ – which means us. They see it in the blogosphere, which has them really rattled. They see it in a Sarah Palin grass roots movement. They saw it in an Obama grass roots movement. 

When the time comes and Sarah is back to massing enormous crowds as she vies to be the first woman President, these suck ups will change their tune. They will have to. If they had just let her have a clear shot they would not be reaping the wrath of people like me. And that includes people like Fred Barnes and Charles Krauthammer who were so dismissive on Fox’s Special Report I doubt I will be tuning in again for a few months.

Here’s the rub – these snobs are stomping on the American dream. It was what helped propel Obama into office, the idea of someone outside the beltway belchers could come to DC and clean it up. That has been the undercurrent since Bill Clinton, come in and clean it up. McCain and Obama ran on the theme and the turnout was massive.

American’s want to believe anyone from their street (even them), could find fate asking them to lead and/or succeed. By dismissing Palin until she takes some useless side steps (like a stint in Congress? Ain’t goint to happen boys) all these people are doing is signaling America we are not good enough to decide on politics. 

In any other specialty that argument may hold, not politics. Not in this country. We don’t have a political class like in Europe, and we don’t want one. Palin will reap support because she is a woman, a mother of a typical American family, a successful person AND because the political establishment fears her. If the screw ups in DC are scared, good!

And not only will Sarah be a force to reckon with in the 2012 primaries, she could easily win  against Obama, who by that time will have screwed up so badly on the economy everyone will be wishing him well in retirement:

The economy is shaping up to be Barack Obama’s Katrina. If President George W. Bush was blamed for his slow response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 — there was plenty of blame to go around, of course, but the disaster was on Bush’s watch–then Obama will get the blame for his slow response to the current recession.   The difference, of course, is that Katrina afflicted a city and a few states, while the recession afflicts the whole country.

Unemployment is 9.5 percent and rising fast, certain to go higher than 10 percent.   And what is the federal government doing about it?  Not much.   And so House Republican Leader John Boehner makes a good point when he asks,  “Where are the jobs?”

On Sunday,  Vice President Joe Biden said that the Obama administration had “misread” the economic indicators. So what are they likely to do about it? More of the same–which is to say, not much.

There is no fixing the economy in time to save Obama or the dems. Obama is flashy and well packaged, but he doesn’t keep his word. He is, in fact, not trustworthy when we listen to what he says. He is a slick promoter. And he will soon be seen as an abysmal failure. In fact, I will wager now he runs on national security, touting his continuation of Bush policies in Iraq and Afghanistan when he does run – because that is all he will have left.

The economy will turn up for Wall Street by 2012. It won’t for Main Street. We here on Main Street still vastly out number those fat cats on Wall Street. This doesn’t take a rocket scientist.

As Obama and the Democrats failed policies continue to play out for months and months, as foreclosures continue to rise, and as unemployment plays with 11%, Obama will come crashing down to Earth. Obama cannot win California if Palin runs. California is already at 11.5% unemployment, they could reach 14% or higher. Obama will not win Michigan or Oregan – two other leaders in job losses. A northwestern family woman riding into to town to clean house will appeal to these states over a failed Obama. The unsinkable Molly Brown may ride again.

Electorally Obama cannot win as things are going now, unless the GOP puts up another far right, angry old white guy. And when it comes down to it, no one cares about those losers in the Political Industrial Complex, they care about this nation and their families.

Here is something I predicted back in February of this year:

Spendulus has passed. America as seen the largest theft of money by ideologues in its history. No war ever caused this to happen. And the so called ’stimulus bill’ has very little real stimulus in it. What there is is not enough to turn the economy around, and the spending doesn’t really kick in until the summer of 2010 – at which time the mood of the country should be just about right to evict the Dems from Congress and repeal this mess before it can do the long term damage the CBO predicts it will do.

What will be interesting to see is what else does Congress and Obama have to do now – right? They have raided the treasury to a historic level. The coffers are all empty (for decades to come). Theoretically they should sit back and watch the magic happen!

But will they? I find it interesting that in Congress more Dems voted against this bill (7) than Republicans voted for it (3). By the Fourth of July, when the job market still sucks, some Roosters are coming home to Roost on the Democrats.

And this in March:

This country will continue to bleed red ink at never before seen rates, and the economy will not be responding. The stimulus bill, has I have noted over and over, is not getting the money into the economy to generate jobs.

… but I suspect the bleak state of the sluggish federal government’s liberal experiment on socialistic spending is heading for spectacular failure. The DC liberals actually do believe the fantasy that government spending can turn around an ailing economy, that racking up massive debt doesn’t drain the capitol out of the markets, and that raising taxes on businesses doesn’t cut jobs. I mean, they really did believe this fantasy!

It is now the 4th of July and we will soon see the state unemployment numbers. They will send a shock through the Political Industrial Complex in DC. As I noted below, the full unemployment picture right now, as measured by the federal government, is 16.4% without a job or only working part time. If the 9.5% represents 6.7 million people, then the 16.4% represents 11.5 million voters (yes, workers do vote) who are getting really upset. And these numbers are now unavoidably going to grow into 2010.

The momentum behind this economic screw up is so large there is nothing the dems can do to stop it now. They sealed their fate. Why not have Sarah Palin come in and help guide a new generation of leaders to take control? We couldn’t do any worse than the crop of parasites in place now.

 

10 responses so far

10 Responses to “I’m With Kristol On Palin – Kinda Of”

  1. [...] I noted below (and many times in the past few months) how the democrats have set the seeds of their own demise in 2010 and 2012. I am now very confident this is now unavoidable, as I note in the post regarding Palin’s future.  [...]

  2. Mike M. says:

    AJ, if Obama runs on national security, he’s toast. The American electorate has never been willing to support a military operation much longer than three years. Afghanistan will be the new Iraq…it will be seen as a black hole into which we pour blood and money for no gain.

    Not to mention the disaster of the handling of the Iranian situation. Obama has made more blunders in six months than a Republican will make in six years.

  3. kathie says:

    Best synopsis I’ve read, from”American Thinker”

    July 07, 2009
    Crazy like a(n arctic) fox
    Robert Zafft
    Here’s the calculus on Sarah Palin’s decision to resign — and it’s elementary:

    1. Don’t resign

    a. Bankrupt family defending self from bogus ethics allegations

    b. Accomplish nothing as governor since Democrats have vested interest in blocking any progress

    c. Remain butt of every liberal pundit/comic/feminist with constraints of public services preventiving effective means to fight back

    d. Fail to influence national policy at a critical time due to pressures of office and Alaska’s geographical remoteness

    e. Be in poor position for 2012/2016 Presidential race because of the above

    2. Resign

    a. Give Lt Governor chance to use incumbency for 2010 election

    b. Let Alaska move forward by removing Democrat incentive to block progress

    c. Make family financially secure through speaking fees, books and punditry

    d. Use media platform to advance policies that matter personally, develop reputation for deep understanding of national-level issues (economic, foreign policy), and use media platform to go on the offensive against opponents and enemies

    e. Play 2012 kingmaker role by consolidating and delivering GOP base, speaking and raising money for candidates (“Mitt, let’s make a deal.”)

    f. Use kingmaker role in 2012/2016/2020 to win prominent, substantive national role (VP, Energy Secretary), establishing a national-level track record and creating an option for Presidential run in 2016/2020/2024 while still in political prime

    g. If (f) doesn’t work out, enjoy being the next Rush Limbaugh — after all, living well is the best revenge.

    For most, candidates, public office is the logistical base from which they operate.

    By giving up the Alaska governorship, Palin has no public office base for her opponents/enemies to attack.

    Many might deride Palin, but no one should underestimate her.

  4. Terrye says:

    I will say one thing for Fred Barnes, he himself said that many of Palin’s detractors are just elitists, in fact he said their problem with her was cultural not political. I think he gets that more than Krauthammer.

  5. Terrye says:

    I will be very surprised if Palin tries a run in 2012. I think her plans are much longer term than that and I am not sure that she is really interested in being in office right now anyway.

  6. Terrye says:

    And national security? Thus far Obama has pandered to the communists in Latin America and the mullahs in Iran. I don’t think that sending the drones into Pakistan will make people overlook his other mistakes.

  7. kathie says:

    I think that Republicans will have a hard time running a “white” man against Obama.

  8. Frogg says:

    It certainly is interesting to watch this unfold. Palin was never my first choice for the top position; but, even I have to admit that I have a sense of excitement/enthusiasm everytime she speaks. Many say that besides her natural charisma, she also has a natural political instinct. We will all find out if that is true in due course.

    Besides connecting to the grass roots movement that is swelling within the country, something else is evident now.

    That PEW poll had her favorability among Republicans as 73%. No one comes close. Another poll recently showed that Romney was picking up considerable favorablity among independents (Palin was pretty much stagnant in that area). But, listen to her words as well as her tone now. She has conservative principles and the conservative base locked up. She is now talking to “independents”. If she gains support among “independents”…..she may end up in a much stronger position than anyone thought.

  9. Frogg says:

    Palin’s Attorney Threatening Lawsuits

    Politics | Mon, Jul 6, 2009 at 12:51:46 pm PDT

    The Washington Post has an open letter from Sarah Palin’s attorney (PDF), threatening to sue Alaskan blogger Shannyn Moore and several media sources:

    To the extent several websites, most notably liberal Alaska blogger Shannyn Moore, are now claiming as “fact” that Governor Palin resigned because she is “under federal investigation” for embezzlement or other criminal wrongdoing, we will be exploring legal options this week to address such defamation. This is to provide notice to Ms. Moore, and those who re-publish the defamation, such as Huffington Post, MSNBC, the New York Times and The Washington Post, that the Palins will not allow them to propagate defamatory material without answering to this in a court of law. The Alaska Constitution protects the right of free speech, while simultaneously holding those “responsible for the abuse of that right.” Alaska Constitution Art. I, Sec. 5. These falsehoods abuse the right to free speech; continuing to publish these falsehoods of criminal activity is reckless, done without any regard for the truth, and is actionable.

    http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/34126_Palins_Attorney_Threatening_Lawsuits

  10. Frogg says:

    Palin Builds Political List

    A Google source tells Marc Ambinder that searches for Gov. Sarah Palin “have spiked dramatically since her announcement last week, indeed, to their highest levels since the election.”

    Furthermore, if you search for “Sarah Palin,” you’ll see an advertisement for her PAC, which is collecting thousands of e-mail addresses and donations.

    Said the source: “Intentional or not, her team is capitalizing on her interest to build a (potentially) enormous list of supporters.”

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/07/07/palin_builds_political_list.html

    ——-

    Offers Pouring In for Sarah Palin

    Gov. Sarah Palin hasn’t said what she’ll do next, but the offers are pouring in.

    The Alaska governor is fielding proposals for everything from hosting a TV or radio show to appearing for various speaking engagements, ABC News has confirmed.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=8009188&page=1