The information out on the Trayvon Martin case today is truly damning, and surprising. One of the more intriguing audio clips is this 45 minute ‘last interview’ between SDP and Zimmerman.  It should be noted this happened on February 29th, before the public outcries from certain political circles had really spun up. In this clip at time mark 14:07, SDP investigator Serino drops a bomb shell about an anonymous call he received that day. The caller – depicted as a witness – claims there was much more to the altercation, including a verbal give and take long before any punch landed. This could be Dee Dee, or it could be someone else. But it blows a hole in Zimmerman’s statements.

One thins is clear, Serino says the witness claims Zimmerman tried to detain Martin and was not jumped at all.

I will continue listening to audio to see if Zimmerman continues to try and gild his alibi, but that right there is serious.

Also interesting in the clip, is how Serino echos many of the concerns back then those of us not buying Zimmerman’s claims asked. For example, why not roll down the window and ask Trayvon what was going on from the safety of the truck? Zimmerman’s response is he is scared, but then he goes on foot looking for the kid? The whole vigilante thing comes out in this first installment of a 3 part interview. Even the question of how can you not know the names of the 3 streets in the neighborhood (especially the one you turn in from at the entrance which you have to give to anyone when giving directions to your own house) came up.

Then there is this damning analysis at FDL:

The third thing I noticed is that his description of the confrontation makes absolutely no sense because he claims that after Trayvon punched him in the nose knocking him down, Trayvon got on top of him and was using both hands to cover his mouth and nose to prevent Zimmerman from shouting for help. Yet, even with both of his hands free, Zimmerman claimed only to have attempted to wiggle and slide his body farther underneath Trayvon and away from the concrete sidewalk, thereby inadvertently exposing the gun he was carrying in his waistband hoster.

Yeah, with my hands free I would be gut punching and a few other things – but recall there are no injuries to Martin.

Zimmerman did not explain how Trayvon would have been able to see his gun from his position straddling Zimmerman’s body. Apparently, Trayvon was such a vicious and superhuman thug that he could see through Zimmerman’s clothes and legs.

I caught that one as well, using Zimmerman’s own reenactment to prove it could not happen:

Unfortunately for Zimmerman, however, the bullet must have changed course somehow in the 2 to 4 inch distance between the muzzle of his gun and Trayvon’s chest because it entered Trayvon’s chest 1 inch to the left of the midline and 1/4 inch below the left nipple. It traveled straight through from front to back without deviating up or down, left or right and exploded the right ventricle of the heart and right lower lobe of the lung, collapsing both of his lungs (See page 125).

Odd too that no high velocity blood spatter blowback from the shot impacted Zimmerman’s jacket front or sleeves, according to the crime lab.

I tell you what, that is really, really, really damning.  That bullet path indicates a gun level, at arms length. Not one coming up from the waist pointed upward through arms grasing around Zimmerman’s head or neck.

Trayvon then either slumps forward or Zimmerman pushes him aside — he does not recall which — so that Trayvon ends up lying face down. Zimmerman climbs on top of him, straddling him. Then he grabs both of Trayvon’s hands and stretches them out, so that Trayvon is in a Y-position.

…

Unfortunately for Zimmerman, Trayvon was found with both of his hands under his body, not stretched out in a Y position.

Hard to keep so many details straight when you make things up on the fly.

Update: For all you timeline junkies this is the recording where police play the recorded dispatch call and you can hear how the timeline from Zimmerman makes no damn sense. Especially the supposed stop at the clubhouse. Amazing

Tags: George Zimmernan, Police Audio, Trayvon Martin

Updates Below (Including A Smoking Gun)

I have been reviewing the audio, written statements, video (here) and an earlier composite of events to detect inconsistencies for George Zimmerman – with sadly a lot of success (sadly for Zimmerman of course).  And I have to admit I am totally surprised to see one of my earliest suspicions pan out (which I did not post, but started to many times). Reader Mata Harley and others have also been hard at work assessing George Zimmerman’s shifting story line and evidence. But let me start with that early suspicion that showed up to my surprise.

As everyone knows I felt like I knew what kind of person Zimmerman was, since he replicated other similar characters from my life time. When I heard the first rough details of the fight, I pretty much dismissed Zimmerman’s statements as nothing more than a hastily concocted alibi mixed in with some actual facts (some twisted).  One thing I was not buying face value was the ability to pull a gun while on your back on the ground in a fight.  That is nearly impossible to do without at least one missed shot going off.

It is a simple matter of physics and dimensions of the human body.  Just like you cannot stick your elbow in your ear, you cannot reach your waist band with your hand unless you spread your elbows out so they extend out like wings (<O>) or you pull them back so the elbows extend behind your back. On the ground you cannot pull your elbows back beyond your back. So the only option is to spread your wings (see image below for example).

Continue Reading »

Tags: George Zimmerman, Stand Your Ground, Trayvon Marting

Life is truly stranger than fiction, especially when it exposes the truth hidden behind the facade and PR. Take these two stories now hitting the political blogs and news sites. The first captures the futility at the core of the liberal economic theories and government trickle down:

The Obama administration distributed $9 billion in economic “stimulus” funds to solar and wind projects in 2009-11 that created, as the end result, 910 “direct” jobs — annual operation and maintenance positions — meaning that it cost about $9.8 million to establish each of those long-term jobs.

Now that is a screw up of biblical proportions. And that $9 billion is now part of the $14 trillion in generational debt Obama, Reid and Pelosi left us for all their mistakes. But if you think Obama has figured it out yet, the second story tells the sad truth:

Obama took in $39.1 million in May and spent $44.6 million, while Romney spent $15.6 million.

Doesn’t that just say it all? Obama is a fiscal juvenile delinquent, running up his parents’ credit cards (We The People) and expecting all of us to clean up after his binge. The picture above really does foreshadow what an Obama 2nd term will result in…

Pain. Severe, long lasting, horrible pain…

Well the pure-as-the-driven-snow Obama administration has pretty much lost the election with their “transparently” dumb efforts to hold onto power past the 2012 election. After years of claiming the President “knew nothing” about Fast & Furious, Obama has to bogusly claim Executive Privilege in order to cover up for either himself, AG Holder or both.

What everyone knows now is that the Fast & Furious gun walker debacle that led to a lot of dead people (including two border patrol agents) has the Obama administration’s finger prints all over it. And they are in a heap of legal hot water.  Why else take the political hits of a Contempt of Congress vote? I mean it has to be really, really bad to go this route. If this is the best of their options, just wonder what the down side options look like…

So what does Congress have on Obama and Holder? We know it has something because as Issa’s committee narrowed their document requests (raising the stakes for team Obama) Holder and Obama became more and more desperate. So desperate they orchestrated a media display that was as transparently staged as it was foolish.

On Monday Holder pretends to go down to Congress to negotiate a resolution – which sounds like he tried to get amnesty for more delay. Knowing full well it was not going to fly, he heads back and shoots off his prepared (and coordinated) letter to Obama on Tuesday right before the committee vote on contempt, asking to cover up all the after-the-fact gun walker details (which is why Executive Privilege will not stand since it covers prior deliberations, not how to cover up past deeds). The entire drama was was planned and resembled a plot from a horrible, low-budget movie.

I have one request for the GOP on this – make public the evidence you have in hand. It is no secret Rep. Issa and Sen. Grassley have copies of the smoking gun files they requested. Even Holder and Obama know this. Which is why they called the GOP bluff. We don’t need any more staged drama. Get this out now and don’t play any more procedural games.

It won’t matter anyway, because Obama and Holder now have some new optional campaign themes heading into November:

“Elect us and we’ll bring you more investigations and likely impeachment hearings!”

 OR

“You think the rules did not matter in our first term? Wait to you see our 2nd when we have no more elections to worry about!”

I mean really, this is their plan? Americans will vote them out just to end this mess! There will be no focus on jobs and the econmy. Now a second term can only be about saving Holder’s and Obama’s butts. And it is clear America is not  interested in saving their butts, or seeing how many more laws this inexperienced bunch are willing to ignore.

Come on GOP – let loose the evidence so we can move on to discussing our new future with Team Romney.

Tags: Fast & Furious, Gun Walker, Holder, Obama

It was only a matter of time. As our federal government bloated outward under liberal naivete regarding the true source of societal growth, evolution, innovation and progress, it was only a matter of  time. In the silly liberal world view, these attributes of society come from bureaucrats who are supposedly devoid of human foibles, and who are not hampered by endless processes, paperwork, lack of imagination and an environment that resists innovation. It is really a very silly world view to say the least.

Neither does innovation or progress automatically arise from large companies. The world of mammoth corporate America shares many of the same handicaps as bureaucracies. People in both domains spend more time protecting their small turf and tamping out internal competition than innovating and pushing the envelope. Large companies can innovate, but only when they carve out a small, nimble group that is allowed to circumvent the usual process and paper work controls (see the LM Skunkworks for example).

The true source of innovation, progress, evolution and our brightest potential future lies in the individual and small companies. It is in these micro-laboratories of innovation where humans have seen the most dramatic changes. For example, you can find all sorts of ignorant quotes from large corporate America at the dawn of the computer age that claimed the computer would never be a household appliance. It was entrepreneurs in the garages of Steve Jobs, Steve Wosniak and Bill Gates that revolutionized society and made a global, instantaneous social network. Our path forward will arise from the grass roots, not from Central Command.

So it was only a matter of time when the foolishness behind the myth of the all-knowing, all-righteous, all-pure government solution was destroyed.

State and local governments are controlled by politicians and, indirectly, by voters. And for better or worse, those voters have lost faith in the social returns of these jobs and our ability to afford them. The voters have responded by looking to cut expenses, and they’ve chosen state and local government employment as a target.

During the financial crisis, the prices of stocks, homes and other assets all fell, leaving the American public feeling less wealthy. In fact, the Federal Reserve reported last week that the crisis had erased almost two decades of accumulated prosperity for a typical family.

This NY Times piece does all it can to avoid the real conclusion. Government programs have failed miserably and left nothing but a mountain of debt so large it will take generations of Americans to pay it back. The poster child for this nonsense was the Obama-Pelosi-Ried Stimulus bill which was sold on the lie of ‘shovel ready’ jobs. It is not so much a lost faith, but a proven fact – big government sucks.

It takes 2 years to authorize a project and get it past the planning stage because of bureaucratic red tape. And those nuts in Congress should know this better than anyone else – having been the source of all the red tape.  I have witnessed over my 25 years as a Systems Engineer process and paperwork consume technical agencies like NASA and within the DoD, leaving maybe 10% of the money going to actual engineering and building. So the Stimulus bill myth was transparently ridiculous to many of us from the beginning.

This humongous paperwork and review workload was intended to increase quality, lower defects and avoid overruns. Of course, as this mountain of make-busy work has grown, just the opposite has transpired. The systems coming out of the government programs are 10-20 more expensive than needed, yet the product is lower quality and almost always over budget and behind schedule.  That is because programs focus on process and procedure – not innovation.

In fact, innovation is frowned upon. It is considered ‘risky’ to attempt too much change. Which is hilarious as our aging systems fall farther behind the technology curve, and the jump back to current practice becomes wider and wider with each passing year.

In 2010 the epiphany hit: big government is killing our economy and our future. Big Government has allied with Big Business to stymie innovation, hold back the evolution of individuals and small companies. They team together to  protect their turf from change.  And it is this alliance of the bloated behemoths that has become the proper and just target of voters.

Because for all their efforts to consolidate power, all the left (and at times the right) end up doing is alienating the real power in this country, We The People!

This year will be another exclamation point like 2010, where big government liberals are hammered and big government conservatives are culled out. The Tea Party is just beginning.  Because that is the only way to salvage our future and return to our previous glory. As neven and imperfect our past was, it was better than this slow strangulation…

I have been crystal clear about why I think George Zimmerman is guilty of at least manslaughter when he gunned down an unarmed Travyon Martin (and for all those who wanted to see the evil teenager who needed to be killed, I oblige above with a picture to haunt your souls). The early indications we had from the first sketchy information was that either this 17 old kid went berserk on Skittles, or George Zimmerman (GZ) was lying about what played out that night.

IF the latter is true (and I laid my bet early on that it would turn out to be true, based on personal experience with many other like-minded, vigilante types who get off on playing hero – with guns to embolden them) then I wagered Zimmerman was unaware of all the evidence around him. Especially the fact that a young lady was on the phone at the time of the incident and could speak to Zimmerman’s actions as she heard them, and as they were relayed DIRECTLY to her by Trayvon Martin himself. Without full knowledge of the perjury traps surrounding him, GZ was almost 100% likely to screw himself over while trying to gold plate his alibi.

We are close to seeing if my early observations do pan out, because now we are going to get the statements (but not necessarily a link to the contradictory evidence) that has given the State of Florida high confidence in a conviction of not just Manslaughter, but Murder 2.

This yet to be publicized evidence has been seen by both legal teams.  The prosecution wanted it to remain out of the public because it would tip their hand before trial. And the defense wanted it out of the public because it would make his client look even worse than he does.

And then there was Judge Lester – who recently noted the evidence is ‘strong’.

There is some strange confusion as to how Judge Lester made this determination, but it would seem obvious in such a case like this with heated media attenti0n and hot heads on both sides. The likely event that exposed the prosecutors case to the judge (and defense team) would appear to be a pretrial conference of some kind:

Generally, the substance of a pretrial conference for a criminal case is the same as that for a civil case. At the conference the judge or magistrate may make rulings on motions, eliminate repetitive evidence, and set schedules.

…

Criminal defendants must raise some issues before trial in a pretrial motion. Pretrial motions are specific requests for favorable orders from the court on particular issues. Under the Uniform Rules of Criminal Procedure, a set of model rules written by the American Law Institute and adopted by many jurisdictions, a defendant should lose the opportunity to raise the following issues if they are not raised prior to trial: defenses and objections based on defects in the indictment or formal charging instrument; requests regarding discovery, or disclosure of evidence; requests to suppress or exclude from trial potential testimony or other evidence; requests for severing the trial in cases involving codefendants; requests for the dismissal of the case; and requests for transfer of the case to another jurisdiction.

Similar requirements are imposed on prosecutors. The prosecution must tell the defendant prior to trial of its intention to use certain evidence, such as evidence obtained as a result of a search or seizure, wiretap, or other Electronic Surveillance mechanism; evidence culled from a confession, admission, or statement made by the defendant; and evidence relating to a lineup, show-up, picture, or voice identification of the defendant (Uniform Rules of Criminal Procedure 422(a)(1)).

It seems very likely that in discussing the withholding of this evidence from the public, the judge had to review said evidence in detail. Thus we can answer some marginal questions such as this:

Interestingly, he [Lester] writes for the first time that the state’s evidence is “strong.” The state chose not to present evidence on the facts of the case at the April 20 bond hearing, relying instead on its affidavit. The only testimony at the hearing on the facts of the case came from the state investigator, called by the defense, who acknowledged weaknesses in the state’s case. The state’s affidavit of probable cause, which as has been endlessly discussed, was a one-sided portrayal with factual inaccuracies and no mention defendant’s claim of self-defense. It didn’t contain evidence of the elements of second degree murder.

No, it did not.  And that is because both legal teams have clearly been pushing from day one for the hard evidence against Zimmerman (his own words) to be kept out of the public light. It happens, not all the evidence is public.

Florida statutes, rules and case law provide that the accused has a right to bail unless the state establishes at the hearing that “the proof of guilt is evident and the presumption great.” If the state fails to meet its burden, the judge must set bail. If the state meets is burden, the judge still has discretion (as opposed to the duty) to grant bail. Judge Lester seems to be making a finding now that he didn’t make at the April 20 hearing — that the state met its burden under the Arthur standard of establishing that the proof of guilt is evident and the presumption great.

…

Judge Lester made no such finding in April (you can watch the video of closing arguments and his ruling here), and the State never presented evidence other than its affidavit to meet that burden.

This argument against Judge Lester’s decision is handicapped by severe blinders. If both sides want to keep evidence from being made public, the Judge has to go along until he has the opportunity to do the research and make a decision on the motion(s). So, to operate within the request to hold back evidence normally made public, the obvious process is not to expose it during open trial events.

I mean – duh!

The argument being presented actually proves how bad this really is for GZ by explaining how unprecedented things are, and what the conditions must be for them to be proper – and unprecedented:

Case law in Florida since the 1950’s has held that the state is unlikely to be able to meet such a burden in homicide cases where self-defense is raised. An accused’s version of the manner by which a homicide occurred (such as self-defense) is generally accepted for the purpose of determining whether the proof of his guilt was evident or the presumption great.

…

Defendant’s version of the homicide can not be ignored where there is an absence of other evidence legally sufficient to contradict his explanation.

I am assuming everyone here is acting in good faith and within the normal parameters of the law (being seasoned legal professionals of the criminal judicial system). Which means that the reason Judge Lester is coming down hard on GZ and able to take  the positions he has is because there is evidence legally sufficient to contradict GZ’s self-defense explanation.

Imagine that. Clear evidence that GZ’s story was rapidly and awkwardly concocted on the spot to cover up his aggressive and criminal decisions and actions.

Those who support GZ without question or thought will be tested very soon. Myself, if the evidence is weak I can switch positions in a second. I am not emotionally hooked to any outcome. My position has been to go to trial and let the process work – for the real victim here. A dead 17 year old American kid with so much ahead of him. The only reason I stand pat is as details have emerged, they have supported and not contradicted my initial assessment. It happens.

Only until I see proof beyond a reasonable doubt Trayvon was a mortal threat to GZ (instead of his stalked victim) I am not buying this self defense crap. TM had a right to stand his ground too. And that included not going home and hiding from a vigilante. Sadly, that would have been the better decision for the young man, but if he thought the coast was clear and began going about is business. That is not a crime.

And that is not an decision worth being killed over.

GZ stalked, confronted and likely initiated the physical altercation. That is my guess based on the character of Zimmerman and how he builds his lies and alibis. He looks to be the kind who lies easily (like in bail hearings where we now have two lies recorded regarding TM’s apparent age and his financial situation – where the coward had his wife lie for him), and he looks to build these lies by twisting events that actually occurred to his view. I truly wonder who came up to whom from behind and began this deadly dance.

I will end with this observation:

If the state wants bail rejected on June 29, it seems to me it has to file a written motion for pre-trial detention under the pre-trial detention rule, 3.132, and both produce non-hearsay evidence in support of the charges and prove there are no conditions that would reasonable assure Zimmerman’s appearance at trial or the safety of the community. If it doesn’t do that, then the court is still proceeding under the pre-trial release rule, 3.131, which requires the state to produce far more evidence, hearsay or otherwise, than it did in April, to establish Zimmerman is guilty of the charged offense.

Is it really a coincidence new evidence is  becoming public over the objections of both legal teams? Not if the judge wants to free his hands in this situation. The judge rightfully noted GZ admitted to killing TM, so there is no issue with releasing more evidence of same. The question is how did this come about, and we may get some answers very soon.

Tags: Evidence, George Zimmerman, Judge Lester, Trayvon Martin

While the news media is distracted by the news George Zimmerman’s wife has been arrested for perjury (a crime co-committed with her husband ‘saint’ George), the bigger news to come out was the description by the judge regarding the case against George Zimmerman:

The judge writes that his considered several factors, most of which weighed against Zimmerman.

Among them, “this is a serious charge for which life may be imposed; the evidence against him is strong; he has been charged with one prior crime, for which he went through a pre-trial diversion program, and has had an injunction lodged against him” for domestic violence.

This is pretty damning, coming from the judge who will oversea this man’s trial. As I have suspected (and Saint George’s groupies have dutifully ignored) it looks even more clear now that George Zimmerman’s off-the-cuff alibi and subsequent statements are at odds with the crime scene evidence and witness testimony. The only relevant aspect of this is the ease with which Zimmermans tried to snooker the legal system.

Even worse, Zimmerman apparently also has a history of violent actions. His saintly frock is slipping badly.

To lie about this means they would lie about just about anything. It is just one more in a long line of disclosures that show George Zimmerman is not worthy of anyone’s support. He is not (and better never be) the poster child for 2nd amendment rights, concealed weapon permits or stand your ground laws. This is the kind of vigilante nonsense that risks all those worthy views. Never, ever let the exception drive the rule. That’s how liberals gain control over law abiding citizens, by claiming the need to avoid giving criminals opportunities.

Of course, the fallacy in all this is that to completely avoid opportunities for any crime requires all citizens to be treated as potential criminals. You’d think by now we would be able to understand this PR trick. But here we are again, defending the indefensible.

Long title, but lots of disturbing incidents have been occurring in this country recently. Apparently in the State of Oregon free thought and free speech are now under attack from The State – bringing the apt comparison to Islamo Fascism and their usual approach to debate (i.e., destroy the dissenters). Read this story and wonder how this ever happened in America:

We learned over the weekend that chemist Nickolas Drapela, PhD has been summarily fired from his position as a “Senior Instructor” in the Department of Chemistry. The department chairman Richard Carter told him that he was fired but would not provide any reason. Subsequent attempts to extract a reason from the OSU administration have been stonewalled. Drapela appears to have been highly competent and well-liked by his students. Some have even taken up the fight to have him reinstated.

What could possibly have provoked the OSU administration to take precipitous action against one of their academics who has been on their staff for ten years, just bought a house in Corvallis, and has four young children (one with severe medical problems)? Dr. Drapela is an outspoken critic of the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming, the official religion of the State of Oregon, the Oregon Democratic Party, and Governor John Kitzhaber.

Five years ago, Oregon State Climatologist George Taylor went around quietly saying that he was not a believer. Then Governor Ted Kulongoski and many faculty at OSU including Dr. Jane Lubchenco made life impossible for Taylor, and he retired. (Lubchenco is now head of NOAA in the Obama administration.)

More here.

A purge is in process in Oregon, led by self-proclaimed champions of ‘open minds‘. These actions cannot go unchallenged or without investigation. It proves again that the panderers of human-driven global warming are truly losing the scientific debate, and have moved onto methods more akin to power-mad Nazi’s and Eastern European Communists. The fact is, this family has a dire need for health care, and those in government who disagreed with this man’s legitimate views – and him voicing those views – have put one of their children at dire risk:

I’m not sure how I will support my family at this point. We just bought a house in Corvallis. I have four kids, one of whom has a rare, blood disorder and requires regular trips to Doernbecher’s Children’s Hospital for treatment. Now we will be without health insurance.”

This family should become the poster family for Romney and the GOP. They should be held up as an example of the two-faced lies pushed by the Democrats and Liberals. Romney and the GOP could do to the national left what Walker did to the Wisconsin left by simply exposing the tyranny behind the small minds and uninformed positions of liberalism.

Global Warming is not happening because of human generated CO2 – that much is CRYSTAL CLEAR from the data.  CO2 is rising but temperatures (both land and air) have stopped rising, as have sea levels. Since we know the Earth has warmed since the Little Ice Age, and human’s have experienced times as warm or warmer (i.e., The Mediaval Warming and Roman Warm Periods), and since we can correlate what sparse temperature records we have clearly to solar and ocean circulation cycles, it has become a moot point regarding CO2 as the driver behind temperature.

So what is all this about? Why destroy a family in Oregon? This is why, and it is something everyone must watch and pass on:

There is another effort afoot to control humanity, to destroy the individual and replace them with The State. And I believe the American People understand this, and that is why we have seen the rise of the Tea Party and the political implosion by the left since 2010.

The left forgets that Americans are doggedly independent.  When given the choice between a challenging life created by their own toil, sweat and decisions or a life of begging for government handouts, We The People always reject the gilded cage. For all their siren song about fairness and making the rich pay, the left simply use that PR crap as a way to gain wealth for themselves, and live out the pathetic existence of faux moral superiority.

It sickens me to see this family destroyed by petty and inferior minds holding positions of power. This family did nothing but have a strong voice in opposition to leftist theories. Theories weak and broken under the scrutiny of the scientific method. And for this crime of speaking to petty power, their livelihood – and yes one of their own lives – is now at risk.

The State must be stopped. This crime must be exposed and the criminals brought to justice. We either save America for our children, or we let it die with a whimper. Some strong elections can end this madness without resorting to this kind of oppression. Through voting, we can right these wrongs.

Now we just have to see if Romney and GOP can turn this incident into a rallying cry for freedom, or if they drop the ball on this as they have other opportunities to actually make a stand We The People can applaud.

BTW, also checkout this second post by JoNova regarding the UN’s agenda 21 – an effort to destroy the essence of America and the free world.

Tags: Censorship, Global Warming, Obamacare, Oregon State

I tell you what, the Wisconsin recall election results were totally ‘wicked’ yesterday.

Firstly, government employee unions finally saw their fate after picking tax payer pockets for way too long, as is well explained here:

… the governor’s recall election victory sends a clear message that should resonate around the nation: The fiscal cancer devouring state budgets has a cure, and he [Walker] has found it.

…

Franklin Delano Roosevelt—who more than any other president set our country on a course away from the founding principles of limited government—knew that public sector unions would be the death of the social welfare state he worked so hard to create. Hence, he consistently opposed allowing government employees to unionize. Today, Greece sets the example of what happens when public sector unions gain the upper hand.

…

Scott Walker ran for office promising change. The fiscal medicine he is administering may be bitter, but it looks like it is starting to work.  The state budget has been balanced.  The unemployment rate has been dropping and is now below the national average. Property taxes are down. Fraudulent sick leave policies—which allowed employees to call in sick and then work the next shift for overtime pay—have been ended. The government has stopped forcibly collecting union dues from workers’ paychecks.

Moreover, as I noted yesterday, the dismal performance of the exit polls indicates there is a large but silent insurgent vote out there in the electorate that is running under the radar of pollsters. The interesting thing about polls, to be accurate those being sampled have to either wish to be sampled, or at least allow it. If a prevailing view that spans multiple sample groups decides to resist sampling, then the polls will miss the energy forming. That appears to be what happened with the supposedly tight race that was called early.

For example, if union house holds who rejected the recall and embraced Walker’s reforms avoided being sampled, then the exit polls would miss how well Walker was doing in union households.  The exit polls show Barret talking 2/3rds of union households, but that does not jive with the following data:

Now that union dues are voluntary, tens of thousands of union members have stopped paying them.  Membership in the Wisconsin chapter of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union (AFSCME) has dropped by half. Membership in the stat’s American Federation of Teachers (AFT) is down by over a third.

Does this look like government employee union members are embracing the cause? Not to me.

If this effect is not isolated to Wisconsin (and I strongly believe it is not), then the polls showing a close race between Romney and Obama are just as flawed. I know exit polls are different animals, but what I am emphasizing is a common resistance to being sampled by a uniformly aligned voting block.

The same voting block that produced the historic drubbing of the Dems in 2010 and have ousted GOP establishment veterans in the primaries this cycle. Apparently the Tea Party Libertarians are not disbanded, just quietly going about their business of fixing our government through democracy.

Update 8 (10:14 PM): This is just amazing. I cannot believe these numbers. 40% reporting and the GOP gubernatorial candidates (now re-elected) are hold onto 18-19% leads. The most anyone saw coming into this was 6%. Everyone predicted a close race – not a wipe out.
Democrats – wake up. Your party has been wiped out be Obama-Pelosi-Reid.  It has not happened yet, but it is happening.

Update 7 (9:56 PM): AMAZING! Fox News is calling it for Walker and Kleefisch.  And it does not look even close 25% reporting Walker is up 20%, Kleefisch 19%.  And this shows the exit polls were crap. And this in turn confirms my suspicion that the anti-government tsunami is running under the radar because this huge voting group is just not engaging pollsters.

The political landscape in America just shifted – and significantly. This is stunning. BTW, watching CNN eat crow will be fun tonight!

Update 6 (9:40 PM): Good Lord, what happened here? 21% reporting and both Walker and Kleefisch are holding 22% and 22% leads (respecitvely) in an enormous turn out election. If a 6% win by Walker spelled doom for Obama and the Dems in November, what the hell does this mean?

Update 5 (9:42 PM): Unbelievable – 15% in and the 20-21% lead for the GOP gubernatorial candidates are holding…

What happened in Wisconsin? Almost no Dems on Fox News, just a lot of gloating conservatives…

Update 4 (9:41 PM): Wow, Wow Wow! 11-13% reporting and Walker is up 21 and Kleefisch is up 20%!

Update 3 (9:40 PM): Wow! 10% precincts reporting in and Walker is up 19% and Kleefisch is up 18%. I am not calling anything yet because I don’t know which precincts are in and not in.  But Fox News keeps hinting they will call soon, and expose the folly of the exit polls. That would be 8.0 on the political Richter scale if this pans out they way it looks it might – end update

Very interesting events playing out in the Wisconsin Recall coverage. First off CNN and Fox News opened with very upbeat GOP representatives (Lt Gove Kleefisch on Fox, GOP head Priebus on CNN). The exit polls show a tie (50-50), but turn out was enormous, as is anger with the entire recall fiasco. The fact is there are no Democrats really out there yet on the news.

My view has been all year centrist libertarian types (including the real grass roots, tea party voters from 2010) are sick and tired of the politics as usual. I believe that irritation has been expanded to include political pollsters. If the anti-democrat, anti-big-government voter is deliberately running under the radar, only surfacing at the voting booth (a hint of what we saw in 2010), then polls are even more skewed left than usual.

I don’t think Walker will win by a large amount, but the exit polls are really all over the map (Walker gaining with Catholics, Barret with college grads). One thing is for sure – Big Labor has finally met its match. Walker’s reforms have left the government employee unions loosing half their number now that they have to request and earn support. And if the voters support that shift away from knee-jerk union support, the unions are in enormous trouble.

And if the unions are in trouble, Democrats are in trouble. It may be Obama-Pelosi-Reid are the latest to wake the sleeping giant. That being the Reagan centrists who have now been forced into the libertarian corner due to out of control and failed government solutions.

Yes, if that the lesson of Wisconsin today, that would be a huge and historic political change. And if the exit polls and the voting results begin to show a divergence, then what we think we know about November 2012 is now completely upended.

BTW, the best political debate on the net is over at Hot Air. Please chime in there and here.  The GOP looks to be poised to have a huge night.

Update: 5% reporting in Walker is 58-41 and Kleefisch is up 57-43.  I can see why this actually may not go all night.  Fingers crossed folks!

Update 2: 7% reporting and these numbers are holding for now. We have a lot of Democrat precincts to come in and it will tighten. But I am feeling tonight will be better than the exit polls indicated.

Tags: Barrett, Walker, Wisconsin Recall