Yesterday I noted PA was starting to drift rightward with a lot of polls showing Obama’s once commanding lead cut in half. In fact Obama lost another point in the Morning Call daily poll, now down to a 7% lead, even though Morning Call has held massive Party ID edges for the democrats (they don’t readjust their samples for party ID). The steady decline in PA is great news for McCain.

And now Virginia is slipping out of Obama’s reach as well, as a new poll confirms that my home state is a statistical tie:

A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.

If McCain wins OH, VA and PA it is all over for Obama. Now we see a tightening in the state polls and complete chaos at the national level.

I checked in with DJ Drummond and he skillfully points out why the Gallup Poll is now a complete mess, with three different turnout models showing identical results. And of course that is ludicrous. One model (the ‘extended’ one) is supposed to address the chance of a massive Democrat wave, and one model (the ‘traditional’ one) is supposed to reflect a much more limited edge for Dems – yet they show identical results. Yeah, right and 2+2 and 2+3 both equal 3.

Of course, I wanted to hear from Jim Geraghty’s mentor Obi-wan Kenobi for some moral support, and he did not disappoint:

The RNC is claiming 64 percent more contacts like this than in 2004 and I think that’s probably accurate. And the 2004 effort was impressive – RNC was praised for it. This is bigger.

And if you live in a targeted state you are seeing McCain TV ads. Lots of them. For all the talk of the Obama advertising advantage, McCain is outspending Obama by 10 million in the last ten days of the campaign. That isn’t well known.

McCain is smart, he held his guns for the final push. And Obama is sure acting like there are some problems:

The fact that some Pennsylvania polls are showing the state in play or that Obama went to Iowa now should be talked about. The fact that the numbers now show what you’ve been speculating about, that the absentee and early voting is following the pattern we have seen in recent elections and not the big advantage previously predicted for Obama voters —   that’s more than a little interesting.

Early voting can only be analyzed in hindsight, because we do not know what portion of the electorate it represents. All we know now is this election is turning out a record crowd – and that means McCain-Palin supporters are jazzed up as much as Obama supporters.

And some anecdotal reporting on VA. I live in Northern Virginia and went on a couple hour motorcycle ride around the area west of DC. McCain-Palin signs were everywhere and easily outnumbered Obama signs. and 3 of the last 4 polls in VA at RPC show a tie (Mason-Dixon. Marist and FOX News/Rasmussen).  I would not lay a plug nickel on Obama winning VA just yet.

If VA and PA (and one would then assume OH) went for McCain-Palin there is little chance Obama can win (yes, I know mathematically there are ways, but not realistically). This will go down to the wire and late into the night.

 

Tags: 2008 Election, PA, Polls, VA