Aug 31 2010

Gallup’s Generic Stunner – A November For The History Books

Published by at 1:11 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Never has Gallup’s congressional generic poll shown such a large lead for the GOP:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

Being a poll of registered voters, not the typically more GOP-leaning likely voters, means that the GOP lead for congress is even larger than this historic 10% level implies. The likely voter model would have to take into account the GOP’s edge in enthusiasm (i.e., who is going to actually go out and vote):

Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be “very” enthusiastic about voting [50-25%], and now hold — by one point — the largest such advantage of the year.

That 25% lead in enthusiasm is incredible, and also must be near all-time historic highs. As I predicted in early August, it will be getting much bleaker for democrats in the coming weeks, as Gallup (and other pollsters) move from polls of ‘adults‘ and ‘registered voters‘ to the ‘likely voter‘ models:

Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup’s likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP’s favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November.

Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House. One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.

Here is how I interpreted the strange, short period of Democrats polling in the lead this summer that Gallup notes in caution:

This frustration [with] the deaf political industrial complex is resulting in a major tuning out of politics while people salvage what they can from their summer vacations. I suspect a major portion of the electorate is no longer accessible to pollsters, the very same portion ready to vote the bums out en masse.

That is not to say these angry voters will not reengage this year. These people will be back in the fall with a vengeance, and probably back in the polls as early as mid September (once the kids are back into the groove of school).

In this last week of Wreckovery Summer, it seems the frustrated voter may be engaging sooner than I thought. Even Gallup is now calling this a ‘wave’ election year. And as I have said for months now, the prime difference between 1994 and 2010 is the economic back drop to the liberal overreaching in Congress. In 1994 the economy was accelerating towards one of its peak periods in history. That back drop attenuated the backlash of voters against the liberal/progressive policies attempted under Bill Clinton. This time around, President Obama has no such economic cushion. And he is no Bill Clinton either.

This time around, 1994 is going to seem like a fond memory for the Democrat Party.

Update: Allahpundit at Hot Air starts to come around to the idea the GOP may not just take control of the House, they may decimate the Democrat caucus:

I keep thinking that people like Mark Halperin are crazy to believe that Republicans could pick up as many as 60 seats. Then I see generic-ballot polls like this don’t know what to think. Sky’s the limit?

To put this in perspective, until this month, the biggest lead the GOP had held in the history of Gallup’s polling was … five points.

So what is the likely voter model showing – a 12-15% lead for the GOP? Pollster.com notes that these numbers already portend something on the order of a 50 seat gain for the GOP, or higher:

So while the “unprecedented 10-point lead” reported by Gallup probably exaggerates the Republican lead, any result showing a net Republican advantage on the so-called generic ballot is bad news for Democrats. Bafumi and his colleagues estimated their 50-seat gain for the Republicans assuming a two-point advantage for Republicans on the generic ballot, which they project will widen to a six-point lead by November. If the Republican lead on the generic ballot is already that wide (or close), their projection for the Democrats would worsen.

Pollster.com is already showing a 5 point lead for the GOP, which would equate to a helluva lot more than 50 seat pick up. Politico is calling it a Tidal Wave year. As I noted recently, we are just now seeing the  rising tip of the tsunami.

16 responses so far

16 Responses to “Gallup’s Generic Stunner – A November For The History Books”

  1. Fai Mao says:

    What would it take to get a 100 seat pickup in the house?

  2. archtop says:

    Re: historic 10%

    It will probably go to a new high after president Obama’s speech tonight (which I’ll be skipping…).

    # Fai Mao

    “What would it take to get a 100 seat pickup in the house?”

    My attitude all along is to play the game as if ALL seats are attainable. Run up the score – set your sights high and don’t look back. How? Support candidates nationally who have a chance and need some cash (easy to do via the internet). Make your voice heard among your friends, relatives, and coworkers.

    Even if controlling the senate’s not possible right now, having the House would effectively shut down the Obama agenda until 2012.

  3. lurker9876 says:

    It will KNOCK Pelosi out of her role as the speaker of the house. Not only that, she will be removed from being two steps from becoming our US President.

  4. AJ,

    You absolutely have to use this phrase:

    “Wreckovery Summer”

    as the title of a post or archive section on Democratic Party 2010 political fortunes.

    It is too good a “Cultural cruise missile” — an idea that captures the essence of a cultural/political moment — not to propagate.

  5. archtop,

    My Nov 2010 Congressional seat prediction range is currently
    – 60 House seats +/15 seats and
    – 8 senate seats +/-3 seats

    We have just seen a 73% approval WV Democratic governor announced he is appointing himself to a now vacant WV Democratic Senate seat, with zero time before the election, against a Republican token opponent, should be a gimme, a walk in the park, easyville.

    Instead, against a non-name, no-money, token Republican opponent, that 73% approval governor cannot break 50% of WV voters as a Senatorial candidate and his Republican opponent is within six percentage points with less than 63 days before the election…without spending a dime.

    The political name for an incumbent in that sort of situation is _DEATH GROUND_.

    This election is not about him or his Republican opponent.

    It is about sticking it to Obama and nothing Gov. Manchin can do will change his being the closest available pinata. His mistake was thinking his local reputation mattered, for a DC job working with Obama.

    WV voters want someone working against Obama, not with him.

    That is why it is such an “Owwiee” development for Democrats.

    This is wrath of God stuff from the voters that won’t begin to change until after Obama is gone and likely for at least two Republican Presidents after him.

    The reason why is down ballot.

    The down ballot races in the State governorships, State Attorney Generals and State legislatures are going to be the real killing grounds for Democratic party careers.

    The Democrats are going to lose their farm team talent for Federal offices and their up and coming and new recruit talent for state and local offices –Two generations of political talent — outside their majority “Liberal Gentry” and urban majority minority districts.

    Immediately before redistricting!!!

    Barring an economic miracle on Obama’s watch, this means 2012 will be a similar level of pain to 2010 in the House as Democrats get their district lines molested to Republican majority advantage in many states.

    And the Democrats pain in the Senate will be far worse as they have 2/3 of the 33 seats exposed to the voters.

  6. KauaiBoy says:

    Is the photo supposed to symbolize the American people outracing the tsunami of government spending or is the wave supposed to be the American people about to close out on the puny personalities of Washington DC.

    Lurker has the best news of all.

    And keep up the pressure on your local miscreants. They have operated out of the public eye for too long. Let them know you are watching. And while the fish may stink from the head, its arse isn’t very pleasant either.

  7. WWS says:

    “Death Ground” – nice Sun Tzu reference there! Oh and you’re right, the 2012 Senate election, where dems will be defending 23 out of 33 seats is going to be almost as awesome. (plus we’ll get the benefits of redistricting, which will move at least 7 seats from blue states to red)

    The one big state that is so far resisting any big turnaround in it’s congressional delegation is California – too badly gerrymandered. Still, if the rest of the country can turn around in 2010 it leaves Kalifornia as fertile ground in 2012, especially if Fiorina and Whitman end up on top this year. (I’m not that enthused about Whitman, but hey, it’s Kalifornia)

    But one Exit Question – Just who is Earl August? That guy in “My name is Earl?” Enquiring Minds want to Know!

    (oh aj you know I’m teasin’)

  8. [...] The Gallup poll that came out yesterday showing a historic lead for the GOP in the generic ballot test is not the only indication that the Democrats are in the cross hairs of the American public. In fact, sitting next to a commentary by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame was an interesting graph, which I will get to in a moment. Silver leans towards the Democrat side (and is quite open about it). Therefore his NY Times commentary in the Gallup has a touch of denial that things are not yet all that bad. His observations are solid, yet laced with a tenor that indicates the reality has not sunk in: The poll is probably an outlier of sorts, by which I mean that were you to take the exact same survey and put it into the field again — but interview 1,450 different registered voters, instead of the ones Gallup happened to survey — you would not likely find the G.O.P. with as large as a 10-point advantage. [...]

  9. dhunter says:

    Take NOTHING for granted. If your as pissed off as I am then get active and take two or three former Dems or previously un- engaged converts to the polls with you.
    Get grandma and grandpa in the nursing home registered if they are not and help them fill out their absentee ballot. Don’t trust the food and commercial workers union to help them!

    If other previously un-engaged refuse to go to the polls offer to get them an absentee ballot also. I have 3 ballot requests in my car for such people.

    The reinstatement of the Death Tax must be brought to the front and center as it is a tax on the already taxed money of the last of the WWII generation who lived through the great depression, 4 or 5 wars and struggled to give their kids a better life than they. Mostly at hard labor and sans the luxuries of air conditioning, modern machinery and tools that we are lucky to have today!

    Don’t leave it to chance or to someone else,
    If Not You, Then Who?

  10. archtop says:

    “Take NOTHING for granted.”

    Absolutely…play like you’re behind. And in this environment, don’t give any seat up. Even Nancy Pelosi’s seat is (theoretically) up for grabs.

    By the way, look for the Journo-listas of the MSM to begin their October surprises early. They, of all people, have the most invested in the Obama administration, and have the most to lose if the Dems do very badly (that 88% of campaign contributions from journalists go to Democrats means they have real skin in the game). Unfortunately for them, their influence is on the wane and won’t be enough to stem the tide. And, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of them deliberately jump off the sinking ship in hopes of salvaging their careers in journalism…

  11. WWS says:

    The journolistas are already losing their minds over what’s happening, and the more they shriek the less people pay attention to them. Recent examples – Bill Press of CNN acting “outraged” that God was discussed at America’s “most sacred spot!” Wrap your mind around that one. As someone else suggested, he’d better go sandblast most of Lincoln’s quotes off those walls.

    Point is, he’s just shown himself to be an incoherent idiot who hates the mainstream people of this country, and he doesn’t even understand why he and his followers are losing them.

    Even better was Joe Romm, the Climate Change troll, a couple of days ago. Andy Revkin wrote a piece in the NYT that wasn’t even particularly skeptical of global warming, it just pointed out that the warmists really would do a lot better if they cleaned up their act – mild and uncontroversial stuff. Romm exploded in an expletive-filled post, primarily because he’s used to thinking of the NYT as an unquestioning ally. No Dissent ALLOWED!!!

    It doesn’t even occur to Romm that screaming and cursing like a drunken fool is not the kind of thing that is going to earn him or his pet ideas a lot of sympathy from Revkin or his colleagues in the future. (not to mention ordinary Joe’s like us!) Doesn’t matter to him and those like him, though – they’ve drunk the koolaid and now they are going to eagerly drown in their rage and their bile.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish.

  12. WWS,

    I am calling ti _Death Ground” for a reason.

    The two big keys to the aftermath of the 2010 wave election are going to be the wipe out of Democrats in governors mansions and state houses.

    The last numbers I saw on this in early August showed that the Republicans will get something like 164 House seats they have total control over redistricting versus 64 for Democrats. Things have gotten worse for Democrats since then.

    Texas is going to pick up four of the seven Blue state House seats.

    The down ballot Texas Legislature races are looking so good that the RINO/Democratic Party majority controlling the Texas House is going to see so many new Republicans that there will be new speaker and non-RINO/Dem approved chairmen for the next Texas legislature session.

    IOW, The Dems will face a complete lock out of Redistricting.

  13. archtop says:

    WWS:

    “The journolistas are already losing their minds over whats happening, and the more they shriek the less people pay attention to them. ”

    Right – in fact, the new oxymoron for today is: “credible journalist” :^)

  14. [...] more… Obamateurism of the Day – hotair.com 08/31/2010 Barry Poppins. more… Gallup’s Generic Stunner – A November For The History Books – strata-sphere.com 08/31/2010 Never has Gallup’s congressional generic poll shown such [...]

  15. WWS says:

    “… the Texas House is going to see so many new Republicans that there will be new speaker and non-RINO/Dem approved chairmen for the next Texas legislature session.”

    Could be – I just hope it isn’t Leo Berman. It’s not political, he’s a strong conservative alright – it’s just that I’ve met him a few times and I flat out can’t stand him personally. IMHO, he’s a pompous ass who drives everyone around him nuts. (unless they constantly kiss the ground he walks on, of course)

    The last GOP speaker who thought he could be a dictator didn’t work out so well, we hardly need another. Oh well, I suppose there’s going to be a few in-the-family squabbles after this election, just like always.

  16. [...] first poll to shock the Political Industrial Complex was the Gallup congressional generic ballot poll among registered voters, that showed the GOP leading 51-41%. This was a GOP lead the size of which [...]