Aug 31 2010

There Is An Anti-Dem, Anti-Big Gov Wave Out There

Published by at 8:25 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

The Gallup poll that came out yesterday showing a historic lead for the GOP in the generic ballot test is not the only indication that the Democrats are in the cross hairs of the American public. In fact, sitting next to a commentary by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame was an interesting graph, which I will get to in a moment. Silver leans towards the Democrat side (and is quite open about it). Therefore his NY Times commentary in the Gallup has a touch of denial that things are not yet all that bad. His observations are solid, yet laced with a tenor that indicates the reality has not sunk in:

The poll is probably an outlier of sorts, by which I mean that were you to take the exact same survey and put it into the field again — but interview 1,450 different registered voters, instead of the ones Gallup happened to survey — you would not likely find the G.O.P. with as large as a 10-point advantage.

Actually, given the 5 week long trend towards the GOP this latest poll may also just be picking up the electorate solidifying its rejection of DC Democrats. Silver goes on to rightfully note that in the beginning of summer, the surprising and rare +5% lead for the GOP could be seen as an outlier:

This is not the situation the Democrats’ faced earlier this summer, when the generic ballot was closer to even. Back then, a 5-point Republican lead on the generic ballot would have been pretty big news; now, it seems to be the new normal.

I completely understand a pollster’s hesitation to jump to conclusion based on a single poll. But as I noted in the comments, the history of the Gallup poll over the summer indicates a trend towards the GOP – not an outlier. But even more so, look at the top 12 senate races likely to switch parties in Silver’s own prediction models:

Notice a trend here? It is important to realize these rankings are the results of many polls and factors, not just one poll. So does Silver not see the writing on the wall? Of those races ranked as having a greater than 75% chance of switching, all 6 are Democrat seats. Of the top 12 seats listed as possible party take overs, all but 1 is Democrat held. AR, WA, WI, CA and NV represent long term, powerful Democrat incumbents, not normally the kind of pol fighting for their careers. The only GOP seat in the mix is an open seat.

Is this not a clear indicator that Americans from every corner of the country are ready (and able) to hand the Democrats their heads? What would this chart look like when Scott Brown was heading to his surprise victory in the MA special senate election? Would the mix have been more even in the top 12 back then? Wouldn’t this kind of prediction have been considered absolutely insane back then? How many canaries do the Democrats and their followers need to see dead or dying to wake up?

Silver also notes that the likely voter version of the latest Gallup poll would show a +14% lead for the GOP! A position I think is probably more accurate, and more devastating. Watch the left freak out now.

13 responses so far

13 Responses to “There Is An Anti-Dem, Anti-Big Gov Wave Out There”

  1. joe six-pack says:

    The fact that most Americans were against the health care bill, and our leadership did not listen may have had an impact.

    A potential problem is that in politics, a week is forever. Things can be quite different by November.

    I do find it interesting that so many people believe that private companies are short sighted, when many of the investments that they are responsible for last for decades. Yet in political life, a week is practically a lifetime. And these political figures are long term thinkers? (I do believe that some are, yet ALL are forced to think short term just for survival.)

  2. >>Silver also notes that the likely voter version
    >>of the latest Gallup poll would show a +14% lead
    >>for the GOP! A position I think is probably more
    >>accurate, and more devastating.

    It isn’t the Senate that makes that number reality denying scary to Nate Silver.

    “It’s Redistricting, Stupid!”

    Down ballot Democrats are like lambs for the slaughter, which will slaughter Democratic House seats for a decade.

    The Democrats already look set to lose their Senate Majority leader, and possibly the House Chairman’s of Appropriations, Budget and Armed Services Committees through straight seat losses.

    If they lose both the House and Senate majorities, they lose all the Congressional chairmanships _and_ the fund raising advantage in 2012 that goes with it.

    Big Capital has already decided enmass that Democrats are bad for business, and isn’t donating accordingly.

    And it’s a 2-fer for them as well. They claim to be afraid of public rage about them buying politicians, so they are conspicuously not buying politicians.

    And Obama is the #1 rage-stoker against the financial industry.

    This is one “virtuous” political cycle I approve of.

  3. Aitch748 says:

    Maybe in less “interesting” times a week in politics is forever, but ObamaCare was passed months ago. I think that if people are still p_ssed off about it now, they’ll remember it in November.

  4. Exhibit A:

    Big Capital deserting Democrats:

    http://dailycaller.com/2010/08/31/why-wall-st-donors-are-deserting-obama/

    And note, this has been going on for a year, and Jay Cost can tell you why:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2010/08/health_care_reform_has_endange_1.html

    Cost in turn is merely repeating what Patrick H. Caddell was saying in Wash Post op-eds in March 12, 2010

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/11/AR2010031102904_pf.html

    Bluntly put, this is the political reality:
    .
    First, the battle for public opinion has been lost. Comprehensive health care has been lost. If it fails, as appears possible, Democrats will face the brunt of the electorate’s reaction. If it passes, however, Democrats will face a far greater calamitous reaction at the polls.
    .
    Wishing, praying or pretending will not change these outcomes.
    .
    Nothing has been more disconcerting than to watch Democratic politicians and their media supporters deceive themselves into believing that the public favors the Democrats’ current health-care plan. Yes, most Americans believe, as we do, that real health-care reform is needed. And yes, certain proposals in the plan are supported by the public.
    .
    However, a solid majority of Americans opposes the massive health-reform plan. Four-fifths of those who oppose the plan strongly oppose it, according to Rasmussen polling this week, while only half of those who support the plan do so strongly. Many more Americans believe the legislation will worsen their health care, cost them more personally and add significantly to the national deficit. Never in our experience as pollsters can we recall such self-deluding misconstruction of survey data.

    .
    and
    .
    Now, we vigorously opposed Republican efforts in the Bush administration to employ the “nuclear option” in judicial confirmations. We are similarly concerned by Democrats’ efforts to manipulate passage of a health-care bill. Doing so in the face of constant majority opposition invites a backlash against the party at every level — and at a time when it already faces the prospect of losing 30 or more House seats and eight or more Senate seats.

    When Democrats passed Obamacare, they painted a big, fat “L” for LOSER on their foreheads that has everyone with any sense seeking safe distance from the incoming political Sword of Damocles, due on Nov 2010 for the first chop and with a return appearance in Nov 2010 for a bigger hack.

    Everyone but the hardcore Leftists controlling the Democratic Party — and their MSM helpers — could see this coming, but such is the nature of Hubris.

    Those whom the Gods would destroy, they first strike mad.

  5. From my take on your post Tsunami

    AJStrata, of The Strata-Sphere has used the analogy frequently of late, in There Is An Anti-Dem, Anti-Big Gov Wave Out There, following many other posts on his site.

    He points out that, like an iceberg only revealing 1/10th of itself above water, a tsunami wave doesn’t doesn’t look all that different from other waves out in mid-ocean (unless you can note its length).

    It’s when it begins arriving in the shallows that the true monster rears its head.

    Pointing to pent-up frustrations among likely voters waiting until November to speak their piece rather than talking to pollsters now, he feels that current polls (bad as they already are for Democrats) may not even hint at the bloodbath to come.

    I hope to God that he is right. If he is, this raises hope that the shoving down our throats of the worst of the Democrat’s agenda, promised for the lame-duck session following the election, may not be a given after all.

    If the Democrats get smashed hard enough, then there may be many among the survivors (assuming they’re not all freaking morons) that may be reluctant to enlist in a kamikaze run to help the walking dead force their bills upon us.

  6. del says:

    AJ — slightly off subject but did you see the latest garbledegoop from the IPCC?

    “We intend to carry out ‘second best’ scenarios, where we assume we have a fragmented climate regime, where we have limited availability of technologies, to describe a much more realistic policy space,” Edenhofer told Reuters by telephone.

    Say what??

  7. [...] Video: “Likeable” – hotair.com 08/31/2010 They really, really like him. more… There Is An Anti-Dem, Anti-Big Gov Wave Out There – strata-sphere.com 08/31/2010 The Gallup poll that came out yesterday showing a historic [...]

  8. Terrye says:

    I hope the Democrats get beat. But I also hope that once the Republicans win we don’t see the usual in fighting and back biting on the right that seems to happen when they win. My guess is Beck turn on the Republicans immediately and start doing to them the same thing he has done to Bush and Obama. I just hope they can keep common purpose long enough to undue some of the damage that has been done.

  9. AJStrata says:

    Del,

    Sounds like ‘we need a do over’ …

  10. Wilbur Post says:

    The Democrats took over Congress in 2006 and things started turning brown right after that. They strengthened their hold on Congress and took the White House in 2008 and the decline accelerated. Coincidence? Maybe, but whereas the normal inclination might be to give earnest and honest people the benefit of the doubt, their breaktaking arrogance and condescension in matters big and small (not to mention hypocrisy and corruption) makes us wish they crash and burn in the worst way possible.

  11. AJ,

    Stick a fork in ‘em, Cook says the Congressional Democrats are done

    The race-by-race outlook confirms the dire forecasts. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman points out that at this point, 32 Democratic incumbents are running even or behind their Republican challengers in one or more public or private polls. At this point in 2006, when Republicans lost control of Congress, only 11 GOP incumbents were running even or behind.

    Privately, some Democratic pollsters say that they are routinely seeing districts where Democratic incumbents are running only even with relatively unknown GOP challengers. In other districts where the Republican challengers are reasonably well known, the incumbents are often running 5-10 points behind, a rather extraordinary development at this point.

    In the Senate, while the odds still favor Democrats holding on to a narrow majority, it is not only mathematically possible for the GOP to capture a majority this year, but it has become plausible. The odds of Democrats capturing even one currently Republican-held seat appear to be getting longer. Meanwhile, Republicans are running ahead or roughly even in 11 Democratic-held seats, one more than necessary for control of the Senate to flip. It’s still a tall order but not crazy to say that Republicans will win the Senate.

    If the ratio of “in-trouble at Labor Day seats” (11 incumbents) to “lost on election day seats” (32 seats) for Republicans in 2006 wave election repeats for Democrats in the even bigger 2010 wave election. Having 32 “in trouble at Labor day” Democratic incumbents means _93_Democratic_House_seats_gone_in_November_.

    See this link:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/print_friendly.php?ID=po_20100901_3522

  12. [...] As I noted with Nate Silver’s chart identifying the top senate seats to likely switch hands, the data coming in right now is indicating a historic ‘wave’ election. 11 of his top 12 seats are Democrat, 6 are already gone (> 75% chance of going GOP). Even the venerable Charlie Cook has concluded the House is lost for the Dems, and the Senate is on the precipice: Simply put, Democrats find themselves heading into a midterm election that looks as grisly as any the party has faced in decades. It isn’t hard to find Democratic pollsters who privately concede that the numbers they are looking at now are worse than what they saw in 1994. [...]

  13. [...] came news that the Senate was also in play, with 11 of the  top 12 senates seats likely to switch parties now on the Democrat side with 6-7 already gone. Many political [...]