Sep 02 2010

It’s Going To Be An Amazing November

Published by at 6:02 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

Update: Pat Caddell adds his voice too:

“President Obama’s undoing may be his disingenuousness,” Caddell says. After campaigning for post-partisanship, Obama, he observes, has lurched without pause to the left. “You can’t get this far from what you promised,” Caddell says, “especially when people invest in hope — you must understand that obligation. The killer in American politics is disappointment. When you are elected on expectations, and you fail to meet them, your decline steepens.”

Update: Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball joins the choir.

Update: Sean Trende at RCP puts the wave’s potential damage at 60-90 Democrat seats lost.

In reality, barring some major and dramatic turnaround in the political landscape, the 50 seat GOP wave has now in many ways moved closer to the floor for Democratic losses. With the economy continuing to flounder and with fewer than 60 days until Election Day, the potential for a once-in-a-century type of wave that would lead to GOP gains in the 60-90 seat range is increasing.

The latest Gallup generic ballot tracking finds that, among registered voters, Republicans are leading by ten points, 51 percent to 41 percent. Three of the four highest leads for the GOP since Gallup began tracking the generic ballot in 1942 have been measured in the past month alone (and Republicans won the House seven times during those intervening years, with as many as 246 seats which would be a 68 seat pickup today).

Why am I not surprised? - end update

The Public Policy Polling (PPP) group is coming out with their sample of Ohio elections today, but as a precursor they published another one of those ‘canary in a coal mine’ numbers which are signaling a route of the Democrats come November:

… by a 50-42 margin voters there [Ohio] say they’d rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.

A couple months ago I thought the Pennsylvanias and Missouris and Ohios of the world were the biggest battlegrounds for 2010 but when you see numbers like this it makes you think it’s probably actually the Californias and the Wisconsins and the Washingtons.

(H/T Daily Mail). That is a stunning reversal of fortune for the Democrat party. If they have lost the bell weathers of PA, OH and MO this November’s elections will be amazing.

As I noted with Nate Silver’s chart identifying the top senate seats to likely switch hands, the data coming in right now is indicating a historic ‘wave’ election. 11 of his top 12 seats are Democrat, 6 are already gone (> 75% chance of going GOP). Even the venerable Charlie Cook has concluded the House is lost for the Dems, and the Senate is on the precipice:

Simply put, Democrats find themselves heading into a midterm election that looks as grisly as any the party has faced in decades. It isn’t hard to find Democratic pollsters who privately concede that the numbers they are looking at now are worse than what they saw in 1994.

In the Senate, while the odds still favor Democrats holding on to a narrow majority, it is not only mathematically possible for the GOP to capture a majority this year, but it has become plausible. The odds of Democrats capturing even one currently Republican-held seat appear to be getting longer. Meanwhile, Republicans are running ahead or roughly even in 11 Democratic-held seats, one more than necessary for control of the Senate to flip. It’s still a tall order but not crazy to say that Republicans will win the Senate.

11 more canaries sitting right out in the open, to go with the 35-65 canaries in the House who are about to shuffle off their political careers’ mortal coil. No surprise. I have said it a gazillion times, the big difference between 2010 and 1994 is the economic back drop. Clinton had a rising economy to mute the wave that hit him when he veered too far left. Obama has no such help to cushion the blow back from the voters.

As I noted in an early August post, I am not surprised to see President Obama’s numbers rebound a bit as his party takes a historic drubbing. Much of the energy in this wave is voter anger at the President for not fulfilling his campaign rhetoric about being bipartisan, transparent and open,  and able to turn things around. He and his party have been hyper-partisan in their policy wins (almost no GOP support), he used all sorts of rank deals to get his legislation passed, and the dismal results are more than worthy of the big boot.

But people want the person they voted into the presidency to succeed, and they know they cannot do anything short of hyper-partisan political hard ball to get President Obama out of office before 2012 (something the voters have not shown any stomach for – yet). So they will give the President one more shot to get his act together and pay attention to the will of the people. His numbers may float up a bit, but no one should confuse that with strong support.

The voter wave will send a message to the ‘public servants’ of this nation come November. If the ones left standing don’t pay attention, it will strike again in 2012, as it did in 2008. The nation is united – against our political industrial complex. That is what the Tea Party is all about (which is coincident with the libertarian, small government conservative streak in the GOP). Americans are turning to themselves now (which is what the Beck rally was all about), they have outgrown the Nanny state.

Update: PPP has a wave of bad news for the Dems today:

I think this fact sums up how much trouble Democrats are in for in the Midwest this year: Ted Strickland’s 34/52 approval rating on the Ohio poll we put out today makes him…the most popular Democratic Governor in a Big Ten State!

The other 5 Democrats running their states in the region all have approval numbers in the 20s. Ed Rendell’s numbers are the worst at 27/63 (-36), followed by Jennifer Granholm at 29/61 (-32), Jim Doyle at 28/59 (-31), Pat Quinn at 23/53 (-30), and Chet Culver at 28/56 (-28).

The Midwest, rather than the South, is going to be the Democrats’ worst region because they have so much more to lose. When you see approval numbers like these for the Governors in these states- not to mention the President- it makes you wonder how bad the damage is for Democrats in the Congressional and Legislative races in the region.

Expect the polls to get worse and worse for the Dems after Labor Day, when many pollsters go to ‘likely voter’ models and the nation settles in for the fall campaigns.

16 responses so far

16 Responses to “It’s Going To Be An Amazing November”

  1. WWS says:

    Obama only has a chance to come back if, after this election, he pulls a Clinton and moves strongly to the right for the rest of his term. But I don’t think he has it in him to do that. Remember that Clinton had been a successful Governor of a fairly conservative state, and thus even if he didn’t like governing from the center he certainly knew how to do it, and had even gotten fairly good at it prior to his Presidency.

    This is where Obama’s complete lack of experience is going to come back and bite him in the bum. He has no idea how to do this – what I expect from him is the same response he gave after the Scott Brown election: arrogance, petulance, and the attempted dismissal of the “parochial” concerns of the bitter clingers.

    Those are the only plays he has in his playbook.

    Of course, the real fun is going to be watching the left turn on him. No one is more bitter than the disapointed follower of a false messiah.

    The Democrats game plan for the next 2 (4? 6? 10?) years, starting now:

    1) Denial
    2) Anger
    3) Bargaining
    4) Depression
    5) Acceptance

    Of course, only the mentally sound will make it all the way. Meaning that most of them will get stuck somewhere along the way, #’s 2 and 4 being the most likely soultraps.

  2. lurker9876 says:

    I hope that the Republicans have enough seats to overcome their “going to get along” mentality with the other aisle.

    Olympia Stone and Susan Collins are going to have to learn to change their attitudes…instead of thinking that the role of the government is to provide goods and services but rather to reduce the size of the government, reduce regulations, and get out of the way to allow for increase of goods and services to be made available to more people.

    I read yesterday two things: 1) Stock market is going to bounce upwards in anticipation of this massive November win and 2) tax cuts extended or however it is done.

    Obama’s economic team apparently has been working feverishly in coming up with ways to stimulate the economy…other than extending tax cuts. They are in a panic mode.

    Obama’s speech on Iraq was intentional as the means of proving to his liberals that he is meeting his campaign promises.

    Too bad he doesn’t care about victory but wants to claim victory as his own. He pushed for the stimulus. It backfired on him. If Iraq begins to deteriorates, then it’ll backfire on him for pulling out too quickly. But who would want to go back to Iraq after the pullout? I don’t think so.

    He told Fort Bliss that winning the Iraqi war made America safer but he did not say that before America. What does that say to you?

    So now people are learning about Black Liberation Theology? Well, they should have taken the time to learn before they lowered the lever back in ’08!

  3. Mike M. says:

    Well, there is one thing Obama could do to boost the economy without extending tax cuts – but I don’t think he’s willing to resign.

  4. dhunter says:

    My prediction is after the fall blood-letting and I hope to heck the Senate goes, Lord knows we have too many cross islers in there to get most of what needs to be done, done.

    My prediction is the angry child we have in office will become even more angry and petulent. The narcissist in chief is on a mission to fundamentally transform America into his vision of a fair nation where those who do not want to work have the same benefits of society as those who do.

    He will turn to the Liberals last bastion, their last refuge in the case of policies that are rounded rejected. THE COURTS!

    This is why the Sotomayor and Kagan nominations were so important and yet the “moderate” Repubs could not even muster a no vote on an obviously unqualified academic theorist such as Kagan.

    His Czars are in place, his liberal dept. heads are writing the rules and the executive pens are ready, willing and able to inflict his dreams of a diminished America by Executive and Judicial fiat.

    Its’ obvious he cares not about a second term. If his speech the other night revealed anything it was his anger, frustration, contempt and fear. His body languauge told the message and his many props of the wife and kids poised on the edge of the shelf behind were meant to tell the world I am here, I am the ruler and I have staked my claim to the Peoples House!

    I don’t believe he wants a second term he wants to tranform America as fast and as much as he can and wander off with his millions to bask in luxury in the sun and play and smoke some dope.

    Hillary will be the one to try to save the Demrats from his mess and she too is an Alinsky disciple who is as our eyes are averted funneling taxpayer funds to Muslims worldwide.

    This guy will become dangerous after he is slapped down this fall and I don’t think there is a soul in the Demrat Party willing to stand up to him, thus the Admirals, Generals, and Judiaciary had better be ready to honor they oaths and handcuff or remove the ENEMY DOMESTIC!

  5. dhunter says:

    Sorry for the double post but I couldn’t resist. AWESOME!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3k6PM9AEos&feature=player_embedded

  6. dhunter says:

    Sorry again but had too, this will go viral, if it hasn’t already!

    http://lucianne.com/article/?pageid=never_gonna_stand_for_this

  7. AJStrata says:

    dhunter, while I look forward to a more diverse conservative set of views, I agree with how Obama will respond. His petulance will grow out of control.

    I planned to post on the 2010-12 period once I was confident Congress would be a roadblock, but here is a preview of my thinking.

    Obama will double down and try all avenues other than compromise. Courts, dictates, everything. He will fall back to the “I am in total control’ mind set of the far left.

    He will cause lots of trouble before he is evicted, but the Democrats and the left will be tarred forever with his actions. Obama’s inexperience and arrogance in isolation could put the knife in the Democrat Party forever.

  8. AJ,

    Follow the money.

    The Democrats have more than Republicans and Tea Party activits to worry about

    The SCOTUS decision to deregulate Corporate political $peech will be making itself felt late in the political cycle in the Senate races.

    If you thught the Left was crazy now. Wait until Haliburton and other energy companies drop money bombs in cheap media market’s like Wisconson versus Feingold.

    You can fill in the blanks with your own examples.

  9. smill1953 says:

    AJ–
    I think your link to Larry Sabato is broken.
    It should be:
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

    –Phil

  10. smill1953 says:

    “…Obama’s inexperience and arrogance in isolation could put the knife in the Democrat Party forever…”

    AJ, it seems I hear this about one of the parties every time the pendulum swings in the other direction. As I recall, we were hearing this about the Republicans after the 2008 election. After the Dems get crushed in 2010 and probably 2012, and the Republicans take over, it’ll be only a matter of time before the Republicans earn the disrespect of the electorate, if history is any guide. We’ve seen it over and over again. Then the Dems will take over again, with the requisite eulogies for the Republican Party.

  11. I’m jealous.

    Pat Caddell says,
    The killer in American politics is disappointment. When you are elected on expectations, and you fail to meet them, your decline steepens.”

    What I took more than a page to try and say in “…and the sharks will come.”, he nialed in two sentences.

    -

  12. AJ and WWS:

    What Blogger Robin of Berkeley, on the American Thinker blog site, nailed in A Shrink Asks: What’s Wrong with Obama?
    ———————————————————————–
    “If my assessment is accurate, what does this mean?”

    “It means that liberals need to wake up and spit out the Kool-Aid…and that conservatives should put aside differences, band together, and elect as many Republicans as possible.”

    “Because Obama will not change. He will not learn from his mistakes. He will not grow and mature from on-the-job experience. In fact, over time, Obama will likely become a more ferocious version of who he is today.”
    ———————————————————————–
    seems to apply here; especially that very last line. That line may be the most important thing to keep in mind about him.

    This dude thinks himself a Messiah. I thinki he is programmed on a course of self-destruction and is psychologically unable to do anything about it.
    -

  13. lurker9876 says:

    As much as I did not like the Republican choice as the presidential candidate for ’08 (at that time, I did not think there would be much difference between Obama and McCain but in reality, Obama’s worse than McCain), court packing was the number one reason why I voted for McCain.

  14. [...] greedy humankind, and they then realize the ‘good guys’ (all those left more… It’s Going To Be An Amazing November – strata-sphere.com 09/02/2010 The Public Policy Polling (PPP) group is coming out with their [...]

  15. Redteam says:

    smill1953
    “AJ, it seems I hear this about one of the parties every time the pendulum swings in the other direction. As I recall, we were hearing this about the Republicans after the 2008 election.”

    smill, you are absolutely correct. There were many words written right here on this blog about the fact that the Conservatives/far right would be out for a long time after the 2008 votes because they were so far out of touch and so unbending.

    Well, with Obama, we now know what ‘unbending’ really is.

  16. [...]  top 12 senates seats likely to switch parties now on the Democrat side with 6-7 already gone. Many political prognosticators finally had seen enough data to note the Senate was on the verge of being lost to the Dems – [...]