I predicted back in late March that al-Qaeda’s bloodlust would be its undoing. Here is what I wrote:

If the Sunni’s in the al Qaeda stronghold start taking out al Qaeda (as I predicted they might after al Qaeda basically was left to only kill Muslims in chemical weapons attacks) then we have hit a major turning point. While al Qaeda cannot beat America in Iraq, only the Iraqis can purge their country of this scourge – and they seem to be doing a fine job of it. Thankfully Bush and others never lost faith in the Iraqis like the liberals did.

The use of chlorine tankers as part of suicide attacks on Iraqis was, in my opinion, the turning point. I noted the one in March in the above post, and then in June there was another chlorine attack, and again I noted this spelled the end of al-Qaeda. I was arguing against the Surrendercrats’ efforts to run from Iraq just as al-Qaeda had overplayed their hand. But it was not hard to see the blunder al-Qaeda was making as in an apparent fit of frustration took their brutality out on the Muslim street.

In May the Anbar model was being repeated in Diyala (the new al-Qaeda strong hold after losing Anbar) and one could see the signs of success there as well. It was around this time I boldly predicted “As goes Diyala so goes Iraq”. In June Sunnis were chanting “death to al-Qaeda”. By early August it looked like there was no going back, the tipping point had been breached, al-Qaed had lost Iraq in my view.

I sometimes get ahead of things, but other times you just see the trend lines and can extrapolate where they are heading. If I head due east sooner or later I hit a sunrise – can’t avoid it. Now Michael Totten is reporting the reality of these predictions in his latest installment on Iraq:

“Al Qaeda Lost”

…

“Did the average Iraqi here switch sides or were most of them always against Al Qaeda?” I said [Totten].

“The average Iraqi post-Fallujah was not very happy with us being here,” he said [Lt Col Silverman]. “If the insurgency only attacked Americans, the people of Ramadi would not have been very upset. But Al Qaeda infiltrated and took over the insurgency. They massively overplayed their hand. They cut off citizens’ heads with kitchen knives. The locals slowly learned that the propaganda about us were lies, and that Al Qaeda was their real enemy. They figured out by having dinner and tea with us that we really are, honest to God, here to help them.”

…

“Do you think what happened here [Anbar] can happen in Baghdad?” I said.

He sat motionless for a time and considered carefully what I had asked him. It was obvious by the look on his face that he wasn’t particularly optimistic about it.

“I don’t know,” he finally said. “One advantage we had here was that the tribes are like small communities, like in rural America. The sheikhs are politically powerful. If we turn them, we turn the people. Urban areas erode tribal affiliation. It’s still there in Baghdad, but it’s weaker. So I don’t know. It did work in the urban parts of Ramadi, though. If we can get it to work in all the provinces in Iraq – and it is working in Diyala Province right now, I know it is – then maybe it can work in Baghdad. It’s hard to say.”

He’s right that the formula works in Diyala Province, and in Salah a Din Province as well. Both provinces, like Anbar, are made up mostly of Sunni Arabs and have had similar troubles with Al Qaeda in Iraq. Even some tribes in the Shia South are beginning to emulate the Anbar model and work with the Americans against Shia militias.

As goes Diyala, so goes Iraq. There is no doubt al-Qaeda is finished in the Sunni areas of Iraq if one listens to those who are in Iraq on the ground, talking to US and Iraq leaders. Some in the leftward fever swamps may still hold out hope for an al-Qaeda resurgence – but it ain’t going to happen. The Iraqi Muslims Street is armed and ready to kill al-Qaeda in retribution for their atrocities committed on fellow Iraqis. This is history, not some possible future. al-Qaeda got desperate and backed thugs who simply wanted to rape, pillage and kill. And when they did they self destructed. As the good Colonel notes:

“What’s the most important thing Americans need to know about Iraq that they don’t currently know?” I said.

“That we’re fighting Al Qaeda,” he said without hesitation. “[Abu Musab al] Zarqawi invented Al Qaeda in Iraq. The top leadership outside Iraq squawked and thought it was a bad idea. Then he blew up the Samarra mosque, triggered a civil war, and got the whole world’s attention. Then the Al Qaeda leadership outside dumped huge amounts of money and people and arms into Anbar Province. They poured everything they had into this place. The battle against Americans in Anbar became their most important fight in the world. And they lost.”

Please consider donating to Micheal Totten and Michael Yon in support of their efforts in Iraq to bring the true story of Iraq to the world. Their efforts have been heroic to say the least.