Oct 30 2008
Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two Â different assumptions on turnout models.
The tracking polls in the â€˜traditionalâ€™ family use historic voting trends to weight things like party ID affiliation in their turnout models. Â The â€˜extendedâ€™ family of polls are based on the unproven assumption this yearâ€™s turnout will favor the Dems by 2-3 times the highest historic advantage ever seen in memory. Over the years there have been times when the Democrats have seen up to a 4% edge in voter turnout. The polls in the â€˜extendedâ€™ family assume a Democrat edge of 8-12% in their turnout models – crazy, eh?
Strata-Sphere Extended: Ob +6.7%
10_27_08 = Ob +7.3%
10_28_08 = Ob +6.3%
10_29_08 = Ob +6.0%
First, for the Obama supporters we provide the â€˜extendedâ€™ poll of polls. This group includes the following daily tracking polls (with todayâ€™s horse race numbers inÂ parentheses):Â Rasmussen ReportsÂ (Ob +5),Â Gallup (Expanded)Â (Ob +7) andÂ ABC News/Wash PostÂ (Ob +8).Â ThereforeÂ the Extended Poll average for today is Obama +6.7%Â (close to the RCP average).
Strata-Sphere Traditional: Â Ob+ 5.0%
10_27_08 = Ob +4.8%
10_28_08 = Ob +4.0%
10_29_08 = Ob +4.2%
Now, for the McCain supporters we have the historically proven polling method. This group includes the followingÂ daily tracking polls (with todayâ€™s horse race numbers inÂ parentheses):Â Gallup (Traditional)Â (Ob +5),Â Reuters/C-SPAN/ZogbyÂ (Ob +7),Â Diageo/HotlineÂ (Ob +6),Â IBD/TIPPÂ (Ob +4) andÂ GWU/BattlegroundÂ (Ob +3).Â ThereforeÂ the Traditional Poll average for today is Obama +5.0%Â (not very close to the RCP average).
Note: If I add in today’s Fox Poll (Ob +3) the ‘traditional poll tally is 4.7%.
RCP National Average: Ob +6.2%
RCP has other, non-daily tracking polls, in their average. I have decided to just go with the daily polls for this analysis (though I did add them into the â€˜traditionalâ€™ family as a one off example today).
A bit more movement to Obama today in the traditional poll family, unless you count in the Fox Poll (Ob +3) which shrinks the movement a bit.
The extended poll model had a shift back to Obama as well.
Sometime in the coming days the RCP may dipÂ dramaticallyÂ as the wild Pew poll (Ob +15) rolls off their average. If I pulled it from today’s RCP equation the RCP average would be 5.3%, not 6.2%. What I would love to see is at least the Traditional poll family dip to 2-3% by Sunday, which would make the race a statistical tie. Will it happen? Â Who knows.
I do know that one poll in PA and three polls in VA (here, here and here) have those two states down to Ob +4%, which could mean McCain wins both and blocks any hope of Obama winning. We will not know what the real story is until November 5th.