Oct 31 2008
Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two Â different assumptions on turnout models.
The tracking polls in the â€˜traditionalâ€™ family use historic voting trends to weight things like party ID affiliation in their turnout models. Â The â€˜extendedâ€™ family of polls are based on the unproven assumption this yearâ€™s turnout will favor the Dems by 2-3 times the highest historic advantage ever seen in memory. Over the years there have been times when the Democrats have seen up to a 4% edge in voter turnout. The polls in the â€˜extendedâ€™ family assume a Democrat edge of 8-12% in their turnout models – crazy, eh?
Strata-Sphere Extended: Ob +7.3%
10_27_08 = Ob +7.3%
10_28_08 = Ob +6.3%
10_29_08 = Ob +6.0%
10_30_08 = Ob +6.7%
First, for the Obama supporters we provide the â€˜extendedâ€™ poll of polls. This group includes the following daily tracking polls (with todayâ€™s horse race numbers inÂ parentheses):Â Rasmussen ReportsÂ (Ob +4),Â Gallup (Expanded)Â (Ob +9) andÂ ABC News/Wash PostÂ (Ob +9).Â ThereforeÂ the Extended Poll average for today is Obama +7.3%.
Strata-Sphere Traditional: Â Ob+ 6.0%
10_27_08 = Ob +4.8%
10_28_08 = Ob +4.0%
10_29_08 = Ob +4.2%
10_30_08 = Ob +5.0%
Now, for the McCain supporters we have the historically proven polling method. This group includes the followingÂ daily tracking polls (with todayâ€™s horse race numbers inÂ parentheses):Â Gallup (Traditional)Â (Ob +8),Â Reuters/C-SPAN/ZogbyÂ (Ob +7),Â Diageo/HotlineÂ (Ob +7),Â IBD/TIPPÂ (Ob +4) andÂ GWU/BattlegroundÂ (Ob +4).Â ThereforeÂ the Traditional Poll average for today is Obama +6.0%.
RCP National Average: Ob +6.5%
This number doesn’t factor in the ABC/WaPo number yet, but when it does I expect it to jump to 6.5%.
Definitely a two day movement towards Obama, but that could be statistical noise given the MoE’s for these polls, and it could be the classic dip in GOP support when family focused days come up. Obama’s leads increase on weekends, holidays and bumped during the Olympics. I am not surprised to see a slight Halloween rise.
But something weird is going on at Gallup. Â Their ‘extended’ model and ‘traditional’ model are now nearly identical – which can only mean the ‘extended’ model is showing a tightening up of the gap between Dems and the GOP. Remember, these two families of polls were created to distinguish between those assuming a massive 2-3 times Dem advantage in turnout over all recent historic records, which translates into huge Obama leads.
What we are seeing in early voting and statewide polls is not what was expected. Early voting has had large numbers of dems, but no large lead coming out of exit polls. I am not sure why Gallup’s two models are converging – the only reasonable explanation is a shrinking in the edge of Dems over Reps.Â
Anyway, we have 3 days to see if the ‘traditional’ polls will shrink down to the 2-4% Statistical tie which will signal McCain-Palin have a real shot at a historic upset.