Oct 31 2008

The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_31_08

Published by at 5:22 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models.

The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like party ID affiliation in their turnout models.  The ‘extended’ family of polls are based on the unproven assumption this year’s turnout will favor the Dems by 2-3 times the highest historic advantage ever seen in memory. Over the years there have been times when the Democrats have seen up to a 4% edge in voter turnout. The polls in the ‘extended’ family assume a Democrat edge of 8-12% in their turnout models – crazy, eh?

Strata-Sphere Extended: Ob +7.3%

10_27_08 = Ob +7.3%
10_28_08 = Ob +6.3%
10_29_08 = Ob +6.0%
10_30_08 = Ob +6.7%

First, for the Obama supporters we provide the ‘extended’ poll of polls. This group includes the following daily tracking polls (with today’s horse race numbers in parentheses): Rasmussen Reports (Ob +4), Gallup (Expanded) (Ob +9) and ABC News/Wash Post (Ob +9). Therefore the Extended Poll average for today is Obama +7.3%.

Strata-Sphere Traditional:  Ob+ 6.0%

10_27_08 = Ob +4.8%
10_28_08 = Ob +4.0%
10_29_08 = Ob +4.2%
10_30_08 = Ob +5.0%

Now, for the McCain supporters we have the historically proven polling method. This group includes the following daily tracking polls (with today’s horse race numbers in parentheses): Gallup (Traditional) (Ob +8), Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby (Ob +7), Diageo/Hotline (Ob +7), IBD/TIPP (Ob +4) and GWU/Battleground (Ob +4). Therefore the Traditional Poll average for today is Obama +6.0%.

RCP National Average: Ob +6.5%

This number doesn’t factor in the ABC/WaPo number yet, but when it does I expect it to jump to 6.5%.

Analysis:

Definitely a two day movement towards Obama, but that could be statistical noise given the MoE’s for these polls, and it could be the classic dip in GOP support when family focused days come up. Obama’s leads increase on weekends, holidays and bumped during the Olympics. I am not surprised to see a slight Halloween rise.

But something weird is going on at Gallup.  Their ‘extended’ model and ‘traditional’ model are now nearly identical – which can only mean the ‘extended’ model is showing a tightening up of the gap between Dems and the GOP. Remember, these two families of polls were created to distinguish between those assuming a massive 2-3 times Dem advantage in turnout over all recent historic records, which translates into huge Obama leads.

What we are seeing in early voting and statewide polls is not what was expected. Early voting has had large numbers of dems, but no large lead coming out of exit polls. I am not sure why Gallup’s two models are converging – the only reasonable explanation is a shrinking in the edge of Dems over Reps. 

Anyway, we have 3 days to see if the ‘traditional’ polls will shrink down to the 2-4% Statistical tie which will signal McCain-Palin have a real shot at a historic upset.

Previous Posts:

The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_30_08
The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_29_08
The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_28_08
The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_27_08
Bi-Poller Part II
Bi-Poller

16 responses so far

16 Responses to “The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_31_08”

  1. VA Voter says:

    Since skewing the results appears to be a national sport, which pollster(s) in your opinion have the most integrety? IBD/TIPP?

  2. VA Voter says:

    It looks like you and I are the only ones without a life tonight. I muted G Rivera (Jerry Rivers) on the O’R show. What’s your excuse?

  3. crosspatch says:

    Drudge has a headline up that McCain leads in Zogby polling on Friday. McCain gaining among Independents. Saw another headline that McCain was gaining among the youth vote, I think that was over at Gateway Pundit, and is now tied with Obama with the younger set. Doesn’t surprise me the way these fine youngsters of ours have been supporting our military services and the cause of freedom around the world.

  4. sbd says:

    According to a post by a Hillary staffer turned reluctant Obama campaign worker and now not voting for Obama, here is her take on the polls.

    – The Bradley Effect. Don’t believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true “toss up states”. The only two of these the campaign feels “confident” in are Iowa and New Mexico. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark. This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% “refuse to respond” result. You can’t possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the “hip” choice, and we all know it.

  5. TheOrchidThief says:

    Prediction: McCain wins by 3 EV’s, America burns. Rodney King in the headlines. I don’t like it, neither do you. The most divisive election in our history. Sad and worrisome and distressing.

  6. crosspatch says:

    Out trick-or-treating with the kids here in dreary California, I finally saw my first Obama yard sign. One and only one that I have seen so far. Traffic was pretty heavy coming home from work today. Saw a grand total of two Obama bumper stickers. I did, though, see a San Jose Mercury newspaper that said Obama is ahead in California by 22 points. But I didn’t read the article to glean any info about the poll.

    After what happened to Joe the Plumber, people are afraid to tell anyone that they support McCain or they are simply refusing to respond to polls. But as I have been saying and appears to be the case here in Silicon Valley, I am not seeing any evidence of any Obamamania. I do, however, see dozens and dozens of “Yes on 8″ signs and I believe most of those people are going to vote McCain. Prop 8 has conservative voters fired up out here like they never have been before. And moderate Democrats, too. I think Prop. 8 is going to turn out to be a huge McCain benefit.

  7. crosspatch says:

    The OrchidThief:

    So now the meme has changed from: “We have it in the bag” to “We will kill you if you don’t vote for us” ?

  8. Birdalone says:

    http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

    Released 11 – 01 -08:
    “Pollster John Zogby: “Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. “Obama’s lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama’s good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on.”

    I would add that it is NOT just conservative women. Ok, I am a fiscal conservative, but strong pro-choice since 1970. I do not think I am the only woman who is fed up with misogyny. When it was Hillary, one could argue it was because it was Hillary. But Palin makes it a pattern.

    PBS’ NOW is about this topic exactly.

  9. crosspatch says:

    You can tell what is going on when women are around, the conversation turns to politics, someone gets on an Obama rant, and the women quietly slip away from the conversation. They aren’t all “out there” with McCain support, but it is pretty clear they aren’t exactly singing Obama’s praises either.

    And I predicted back when the media was singing McCain’s praises when he was criticizing the Republican establishment that if McCain were to become the Republican establishment, that media support would evaporate and he would become the devil incarnate in the left wing media.

    And here you have Sarah Palin who has been a champion of anti-corruption whistle blowers everywhere and even sent her own party bigwigs up the river. Moderate Democrats all across the country should be behind this pair as their agenda is almost exactly what these Democrats have been saying they wanted for so long. But they have an R after their name, so they must be despised. It is sad. It is sad that it really isn’t at all about the issues that these people have said so long that it was about. Because when someone comes along that champions those same values but are of the wrong party, suddenly those values don’t seem to mean very much anymore. And then we see the real deal. It is just all about getting the “correct” graft distribution network in place and not at all about the issues they claimed it was.

    Shallow. So extremely shallow. It takes backbone to stand up to your party and win as both Palin and McCain have done. THOSE people represent real change. Odd that so many Democrats loved both Palin and McCain until they ran for President. Democrats seem to have no values, no morals, no backbone, no integrity. The end always justifies the means with them and if they can’t get what they want, they threaten “blood in the streets”.

    Bring it on.

  10. spiff says:

    Obama ‘Raffles’ Chance To Join Him Election Night
    http://cbs2chicago.com/local/Obama.raffle.email.2.853681.html

    For $25, you too will have a chance to idolize Barry up close and personal.

    Free at last? Duh, try redistribution at last.

    Obama’s America will be anything but free. It’ll be gimme another $5. Then, another $25. Another $5. How about a $50? And another, and another? The more you give, the more chances you have for a better chance.

    To love America is to love Barry, first. To love Him is to love Him “without pre-conditions”.

    To love Him “without pre-conditions” is to send money, lots and lots of money, preferably in small untraceable denominations requiring zero accountability.

    Can there be any doubt left in America that Barry is just another non-stop money-grubbing infomercial for, “Gimme!”?

    But wait! There’s more!

    If you call now,you’ll also be entered for a chance to win your tax cuts. Yes, you can, “win” your tax cuts. In an effort to “lower expectations” over their campaign policies, all promises will now be “raffled”.

    Want more health care? Buy a raffle ticket and you just might win some.

    Yes, America. Coming soon to a prime time slot near you!

    “Medicare Idol!”

    Call now! Operators are standing by!

  11. crosspatch says:

    So Obama’s aunt seems to be an illegal alien who was ordered to leave the country and is living on public assistance in NYC.

    So why am I not surprised. Seems Obama has a problem spreading his own wealth around to his own family … yet again. And *we* are selfish?

    Turns out she might be an illegal campaign donor too.

  12. spiff says:

    Re: Obama’s Aunt

    Better start making more room under that bus.

  13. crosspatch says:

    Oops, Boston, not NYC.

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